Arizona
Kyler Murray and his agent released a public statement asking for a long-term deal.
Why It Matters: The statement was met with criticism and even ridicule, but Murray has earned a market value extension - which should be around 40 million a year. Some see the statement as an attempt to create urgency to build a championship team, others see it as more evidence of the buzz that Murray is “immature, self-centered, and a finger pointer”. The relationship between the team and Murray isn’t great in the public eye, but general manager Steve Keim said “that’s just an agent doing his job”. The Cardinals could still get an extension done soon, but they will certainly decide to pick up his fifth-year option if it doesn’t get finalized, and they can put it off until 2023, although the price could and should go up by then.
The Cardinals extended the contracts of GM Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury through 2027.
Why It Matters: Keim and Kingsbury are no longer on the hot seat, even though many believe they should be. The team is going to have to retool on the edge with Chandler Jones likely leaving in free agency, and they also have uncertainty at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Team owner Michael Bidwill has more faith in their current brain trust than the fans and football public do. The Cardinals have only incrementally improved each year and reliably faded in each December, but ownership is happy to keep the team under their control for the foreseeable future.
Kliff Kingsbury said second-year wide receiver Rondale Moore will be a much bigger part of the offense, with a goal to get him the ball in space.
Why It Matters: A.J. Green and Christian Kirk are free agents, and it’s possible neither is brought back. Moore’s rookie year started with a bit of bang, but he was bottled up for most of the season. While Moore’s value should go up this year, we should also expect DeAndre Hopkins to return to his massive target share after it dropped off last year.
Buffalo
Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic wrote, "don’t be surprised if all of (Dawson) Knox numbers, except touchdowns, go up.”
Why It Matters: Emmanuel Sanders is a free agent, which has been a big part of the Gabriel Davis offseason debate, as he has risen into the sixth round in early best ball drafts on the power of his record-breaking divisional round performance, but Knox’s improved outlook deserves more attention too. Buscaglia points out that Knox had one of the lowest target rates per route run of starting tight ends, which some would say means he didn’t “earn” targets on his routes. Entering his fourth year, Knox is a player on the rise, and at worst, he’ll be a boom/bust TE1 in 2022 fantasy leagues.
Cleveland
Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reports that the Browns are prepared to pay impending free-agent tight end David Njoku market value and that they will talk to Jarvis Landry about restructuring his 16+ million dollar cap number for 2022.
Why It Matters: Landry is poised to be the #1 receiver and his value would surely drop if he goes elsewhere after saying publicly that he wants to stay in Cleveland while telling the story of how many injuries he played through last year. The Browns seem to like Njoku, but don’t want to leverage his immense physical talents consistently in the passing game. He would appear to have more value away from Cleveland than he would have if they re-sign him. Mike Kaye from Pro Football Network also raised the possibility that the Browns could use the franchise tag on Njoku.
Dallas
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Executive Vice President Stephen Jones said it’s “too early” to address Amari Cooper’s contract.
Why It Matters: Cooper’s cap number is 20 million, but the team would only take on 6 million in dead cap if he is released. That seems unlikely, but a restructure, or even a trade could be possible even though the team could also see Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson walk in free agency. Neither Cooper nor the Cowboys have seemed too happy with each other in recent years, so don’t write Cooper’s name on the 2022 roster in pen yet.
Denver
General manager George Paton said he had “good discussions with Melvin Gordon, and would like to have him back”.
Why It Matters: Javonte Williams' 2022 breakout would be on hold if Gordon returns. Gordon played better last year than he did in the first year of his contract, and the team may prefer a two-back attack. This could just be polite combine talk, but it goes farther than the usual non-committal talk about impending free agents.
Green Bay
Ian Rapoport reports that the Packers are negotiating a “short-term deal” with Aaron Rodgers, but that Rodgers has not committed to continuing to play football yet.
Why It Matters: The Packers are expected to use the franchise tag on Davante Adams, they have been restructuring other deals to free up cap, and the Rodgers trade rumor mill is quiet. It looks like Rodgers is going to return to Green Bay for another season.
Indianapolis
Ian Rapoport reports that the Colts are looking for a new quarterback. At the combine, when asked about their quarterback situation, general manager Chris Ballard said, “We’re working through it”.
Why It Matters: Despite his gaudy 27/7 TD/INT ratio, the Colts had a total loss of confidence in Wentz after he couldn’t win at Jacksonville to send them to the playoffs. March 18 is a key date here as 12 million dollars of Wentz’s 2022 compensation becomes guaranteed. Wentz has no guaranteed money in future years, so if the Colts eat some of his 2022 cost, they could find a taker in a trade, but they also may not like what they find as an alternative in free agency and the trade market.
Miami
Dolphins GM Chris Grier said “the door is shut” on Deshaun Watson.
Why It Matters: We have to start at least being open to the idea that Watson won’t play in 2022. While there are reportedly teams that are willing to trade for him while his legal situation is open-ended, the Texans won’t get what they are looking for, and if the Dolphins are out, there might not be a bidding war for Watson’s services. Grier reiterated the team’s commitment to Tua Tagovailoa, and with whiz kid head coach Mike McDaniel at the helm, the team has a better chance to unlock Tagovailoa’s latent upside.
Mike Kaye of Pro Football Network believes Mike Gesicki could be a franchise tag candidate.
Why It Matters: The franchise tag cost for Gesicki would be around 11 million, which is reasonable. Hopes in fantasy circles that Gesicki could be used more productively elsewhere are looking less likely to bear fruit this offseason.
Minnesota
New head coach Kevin O’Connell said, “Kirk (Cousins) is our quarterback”.
Why It Matters: Visions of a wild offseason overflowing with big-name quarterbacks changing teams are fading as it looks like even a mid-tier name like Cousins will stay put as the team wants to stay competitive and Cousins is better than the alternative, even though he only has one year left on his contract. O’Connell has a history with Cousins in Washington, and the two should be able to improve from last year.
NY Giants
Jordan Raanan of ESPN reports that James Bradberry (21.9M cap number) and Sterling Shepard (12M cap number) are potential cap cuts and that the team is unlikely to pick up Daniel Jones' fifth-year option. According to Ryan Dunleavy, the team is asking Shepard to take a significant pay cut. Dan Duggan reports that sources fix Bradberry’s trade value as a third-round pick, and Saquon Barkley, who the team appears to be open to trading, at a fourth-round pick value.
Why It Matters: Whew. The Giants are in for a lot of change in the first post-Gettleman year. Barkley is almost certainly in his last year with the team, and they probably won’t accept a fourth-round pick for him, since they could get that, albeit delayed a year, as a compensatory pick when he leaves in free agency next year. A Bradberry trade comes with 12 million in cap savings, so the new regime should be eager to get that done. Shepard will be cut or take the team’s offer. As far as Jones goes, the team will hope that he plays well under Brian Daboll and earns the franchise tag, which will be at least 8 million more than his fifth-year option, which would be around 22 million if the new regime decided to commit to him before seeing him play a down for them.
San Francisco
The 49ers have been in touch about a Raheem Mostert reunion, according to his agent.
Why It Matters: Elijah Mitchell took over this backfield after Mostert tore his ACL in Week 1 in one of the biggest and most surprising developments of the fantasy season. If Mostert comes back, it would turn this back into a committee, at least for as long as he stays healthy. You would figure both San Francisco and Mostert know they are good for each other, so we should be open to this happening.
Adam Schefter reports Jimmy Garoppolo will undergo shoulder surgery that will sideline him until the summer, but that it won’t affect his trade status. Schefter added that sources expected him to be traded in March.
Why It Matters: It looks like Garoppolo will be the biggest quarterback name to change teams before the draft unless the Deshaun Watson situation gets resolved. It’s not impossible that the team keeps him if they don’t like the trade offers they get and Schefter was more ambivalent about Garoppolo’s fate just a few weeks ago. The 49ers are smart to deal him soon because after the draft the market for him will get much smaller once we see where the rookies land. Trey Lance should have a chance to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, if not top five.
Seattle
Ian Rapoport reports unless they can find a better option, the Seahawks won’t trade Russell Wilson, and Pete Carroll says he has “no intention” of trading Wilson.
Why It Matters: We should project Wilson as the starting quarterback for the Seahawks next season and hope that his finger injury was the reason for his dropoff. Carroll is nearing the end of his coaching career and probably doesn’t want to start over.
Carroll says the team is “hopeful” they will re-sign Rashaad Penny.
Why It Matters: The Seahawks probably value Penny more than any other team and Penny has the best chance of success there. Chris Carson is still under contract and would at worst be the 1A with Penny, but if this does come to pass, compare the two contracts to project which back will have the upper hand. Neither is likely to play 17 games.
Tampa Bay
Ali Marpet announced his retirement.
Why It Matters: This was a surprise as Marpet is only 28. The team is going to have to deal with losing a stalwart starting guard in addition to Tom Brady, and they also have Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and Rob Gronkowski entering free agency among others. The next time we see the Bucs, it will look a lot different than it did when they narrowly lost to the Rams in the divisional round
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