This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs NYG) vs Fabian Moreau
Jefferson is a must-start in any format, week in and week out. However, this week he has a great matchup to go on top of being one of the best receivers in the league. Moreau has been operating as a shadow corner in recent weeks and has had poor showings against Terry McLaurin and Devonta Smith. Over the past two months, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers as well as the third-most to perimeter receivers. Fire up Jefferson with confidence and seriously consider him in daily formats despite the high price.
WR Mike Evans (TB vs ARZ) vs Marco Wilson
The season continues to go from bad to worse for Arizona as a rash of injuries has decimated almost the entire team. They played last week without all three of their top corners, and it is still up in the air as to who is going to play this week. Even if Wilson plays, he is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap, and the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers. The entire Tampa Bay receiving group can be upgraded this week.
WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs DAL) vs Kelvin Joseph
With Jalen Hurts trending towards being out and Gardner Minshew looking to be the starting quarterback, there are a lot of people coming off of Brown. This should not be the case, as he will see a lot of Joseph in coverage based on alignment. Trevon Diggs has not shadowed much this year and is not expected to this week. Joseph is allowing 0.76 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 26% of the time. Look for Brown to be targeted early and often as a safety valve for whoever is under center this week.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs KC) vs Joshua Williams
Seattle has had a rough few weeks overall and will not have a much easier test with Kansas City. However, Metcalf gets a great matchup on the left side of the field against Williams. The big receiver lines up on the left side of the formation 61% of the time and will see Williams often. Williams is currently allowing 0.50 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted over 20% of the time. This is the clear weak spot in the Kansas City defense and should be exploited by the strength of the Seattle offense. Look for Metcalf to lead all receivers in this matchup.
WR Darius Slayton (NYG vs MIN) vs Cameron Dantzler
Minnesota has been one of the worst secondaries this season. They have allowed the second-most points to perimeter receivers and receivers overall as well as the most over the past two months. Dantzler has dealt with injuries off and on this season and has not provided any sort of boost when in the lineup. He is currently allowing 0.48 fantasy points per coverage snap and will see a lot of Slayton this week. Slayton is the best downfield threat for the Giants and has a chance at a big game this week.
WR Elijah Moore (NYJ vs JAX) vs Tre Herndon
Even with Zach Wilson under center, this matchup is too good to pass up. Moore is a sneaky FLEX or sleeper play this week against Herndon. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers as teams have tried to avoid Ahmad Gardner on the outside. Herndon is currently allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage snap and is likely to be picked on the rest of the season as the perimeter receivers continue to play well.
TE Mark Andrews (BAL vs ATL)
It has not been a great string of games for Andrews, and it has had fantasy managers questioning if they can start him. Lamar Jackson did not practice again on Wednesday and is trending toward not playing this week. However, the Falcons have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have been a favorable matchup for anyone who catches the ball.
TE Pat Freiermuth (PIT vs LV)
Freiermuth has also had a rough string of games and is coming off a week without a single catch. He is also walking into a great matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed six touchdowns and the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. He is a borderline TE1 this week but does have risks associated with starting him. Freiermuth has enough top-10 finishes this season to trust putting him out in the fantasy playoffs.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs PHI) vs Avonte Maddux
Lamb has a habit of lining up all over the field but lined up in the slot more than usual in their Week 6 meeting earlier this season. Darius Slay and James Bradberry shut down Noah Brown and Michael Gallup to the tune of 4 catches for 31 yards over the course of 71 coverage snaps. Lamb had a slightly better day, but only because he ducked the perimeter. Dak Prescott is back for this matchup and could change things, but the Eagles are currently allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and have been a tough matchup all season.
WR Van Jefferson (LAR vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain
This would be a different perspective with Cooper Kupp, but the Broncos are currently allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and are one of the few bright spots this season. Surtain is leading the charge and has been asked to shadow when called for. Jefferson is the WR1 by default for the Rams right now and cannot be trusted in almost any format this week. Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, and Ben Skowronek are tough to trust in any matchup but should be outright avoided this week.
WR Mike Williams (LAC vs IND) vs Stephon Gilmore
The Colts had allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers before allowing the largest comeback in NFL history to the Vikings last week. Gilmore led the charge on the outside before running into Justin Jefferson. Look for things to return closer to the norm this week against the Chargers. The defense as a whole has not played well over the past two weeks, allowing six touchdowns to receivers after allowing just six over the first 12 weeks. The defense may be trending in the wrong direction, but Gilmore should bounce back against Williams this week.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE vs NO) vs Marshon Lattimore
Lattimore has been a big boost back to this secondary, and he is slated to line up against Peoples-Jones this week. Lattimore has shadowed in the past, and there is a chance he would follow Amari Cooper. This will be a tough matchup to predict, but with the forecasted weather and projected scoring, there will not be a lot of fantasy points to go around. With the poor play of Deshaun Watson, the forecasted weather, and the tough matchup, avoid Browns receivers if possible.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (ARZ vs TB) vs Carlton Davis
Things are falling apart all over the Arizona roster. The loss of Kyler Murray was big, but the injuries across the offensive line have made it tough for anyone to throw the ball. Hopkins is the only reliable option in this offense right now and is drawing extra coverage in every matchup. His volume keeps him relevant each week, but we should temper expectations this week. He will see a mix of all Tampa Bay corners as they play a side-based defense. Davis allows 0.36 fantasy points per coverage snap on the left side, while Jamel Dean is allowing 0.23. Hopkins will be started in almost every format but may not produce as expected in the fantasy playoffs.
WR D.J. Moore (CAR vs DET) vs Jeff Okudah
The Lions’ secondary has not been great as a whole, but Okudah has had spurts of being a lockdown corner. Sam Darnold coming back to the offense has not been great for receivers, and this offense has moved to a run-first scheme. Moore has been boom or bust over the past few weeks and will have a tough time against Okudah. He will be able to escape coverage by moving all over the field, but we should temper expectations this week.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs BUF)
The tight end position has been thin all season, and Kmet may be tough to avoid this week. However, he has failed to score more than 6.5 fantasy points in three out of his last four games and has a tough matchup against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed zero touchdowns to tight ends and just 8.9 fantasy points per game this season. Buyer beware with Kmet this week.
TE Dawson Knox (BUF vs CHI)
On the flip side of the same game, Knox is coming off his most productive two-week stretch of the season. He has scored 35.9 fantasy points over the past two weeks but is walking into a tough matchup against Chicago. The Bears have allowed just three touchdowns, and only two tight ends have surpassed 8.2 points this season. The explosion of points is hard to ignore, but this is the same tight end that has been shut out a few times this season.