This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET vs MIN) vs Chandon Sullivan
This is a great spot for all Detroit receivers as the Vikings continue to rank 31st against the pass. They were absolutely burned by Garrett Wilson and the Jets last week despite pulling off the win and the entire Lions' group of receivers should be upgraded this week. St. Brown will spend most of his time in the slot against Sullivan, who has allowed 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap this season, Jared Goff finished their first matchup of the season with 277 yards and a touchdown, and the Vikings' defense has gotten worse while the Detroit offense has gotten better. Upgrade these receivers across the board.
WR Treylon Burks (TEN vs JAX) vs Tevaughn Campbell
Burks did not practice on Wednesday and is still considered in the league’s concussion protocol. Watch the injury report heading into this matchup and start Burks confidently if he is able to go. If Burks is out, Robert Woods becomes a sneaky flex option as the matchup against Campbell is too good to pass up. He was pressed into action due to injury and was absolutely picked apart last week. Campbell is allowing 0.85 fantasy points per coverage snap and was targeted 35% of the time. Tyson Campbell, on the other side, has played far better but there was no hiding the weakness at left corner last week. Tennessee is hard to trust throwing the ball but watch the injury report and check in on Burks as the week progresses.
WR K.J. Osborn (MIN vs DET) vs Will Harris
Detroit employed shadow coverage against Justin Jefferson back in Week 3, and Jeff Okudah limited the starting receiver to 3 catches for 14 yards. This ploy let Osborn and Adam Thielen run free for a combined 11 catches for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. Osborn broke free in the fourth quarter for a long game-winning touchdown against former teammate Mike Hughes. We could see a similar alignment this week and Osborn is in a great sleeper spot. Jefferson is too good to downgrade much, especially as Okudah has dealt with injuries and ineffective play since that Week 3 matchup. The Vikings and Lions matchup should be a high-scoring affair and almost all receivers on both teams can be upgraded this week. Detroit has allowed the third-most points to slot receivers and the 5th most overall to opposing receivers.
WR Nico Collins (HOU vs DAL) vs Kelvin Joseph
Davis Mills is expected back at quarterback this week, and Houston takes on their in-state rival Dallas. It has been a tough season overall, but at the end of the day, they have to throw the ball to someone. Dallas has been a top-five defense in almost every category, and the game script should call for a lot of throwing the ball. Brandin Cooks may have the most talent in this receiver group, but he also has the toughest matchup on the other side. Collins will take on a corner that is allowing 0.73 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 29% of the time. Joseph is the weak link in this secondary due to injuries and is the likeliest spot to be picked on. Look for Mills to target Collins early and often out of necessity.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs TB) vs Carlton Davis
There is a lot of risk in the San Francisco offense right now, with Brock Purdy starting at quarterback. However, these skill players are too good to downgrade too much. This week they face a tough test against the Tampa Bay defense, but Aiyuk has the best matchup against Davis on the outside. Davis is the weak spot in regard to fantasy football, as he is allowing 0.37 fantasy points per coverage snap and leads the team by far. Davis is also targeted a team-high 27% of the time. There will be points flowing through this offense regardless of who the quarterback is, and Aiyuk could be one of the better sources this week with his projected defensive matchup.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC vs Mia) vs Kader Kohou
The Chargers offense has been up and down this season, but Allen is healthy and back to leading this receiver group. He is wreaking havoc in the slot and is back to leading the target share for Justin Herbert. The Miami group of corners has not been as good as in previous years, and they rank in the middle of the pack in most passing categories. The return of Mike Williams will draw more coverage to the outside and allow Allen to run free underneath. Austin Ekeler is also targeted enough to have a dedicated linebacker and or safety assigned and should open even more space for Allen to operate. As this team gets healthier, the value of Allen should continue to rise for the rest of the season.
TE T.J. Hockenson (MIN vs DET)
Hockenson was clearly unhappy towards the end of his time with Detroit, and he will get the chance to return to his former city and show them what they traded away. He has a very safe floor for the tight end position around 8 points and could easily see that number reach double-digits this week. Detroit ranks fifth in points allowed to tight ends (14.1) and ranks in the bottom four in yards allowed to players lined up in the slot. Hockenson has lined up in the slot more than any Viking player since coming over before the trade deadline. Start Hockenson with confidence this week, as a top-five finish at the position is likely.
TE Hunter Henry (NE vs ARZ)
Arizona continues to be the worst-ranked time against opposing tight ends. Henry has not been a top option in the Patriots’ offense this season, but he is walking into a great spot this week. Henry showed what he was capable of against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day and showed he deserves more attention in this offense. Any tight end playing against Arizona is a must-start. Henry should be a very cheap option and a great boom candidate in what is the best matchup for opposing tight ends this week.
Unfavorable Matchup
WR Amari Cooper (CLE vs CIN) vs Eli Apple
The Browns' offense took a major hit with a rusty Deshaun Watson taking over at quarterback and will have an even tougher test this week against Cincinnati. Even with the loss of Chidobe Awuzie, the Bengals are allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and have played even better over the past two months. This will be a tough matchup for all of the Browns’ receivers. Cooper may be the best option in this offense, but they can all be downgraded this week in a tough matchup.
WR Tyler Boyd (CIN vs CLE) vs Greg Newsome
The Browns and Bengals rivalry will be a fun game to watch this week. Boyd is going to have the toughest matchup of any player in this game. Newsome has locked down every slot receiver he has faced and is the biggest reason why the Browns are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing slot receivers. Joe Mixon is expected back, and JaMarr Chase will dominate the target share this week. Avoid Boyd this week in a tougher-than-usual matchup.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC vs DEN) vs Essang Bassey
The Denver offense has sputtered this season, but the defense has played extremely well. Patrick Surtain has done a great job locking up the outside, but Bassey has done an even better job on the inside against slot receivers. He is currently allowing 0.12 fantasy points per coverage snap. The Chiefs offense has looked unstoppable at times and seems to be able to score from anywhere on the field. However, this will be a tough matchup for Smith-Schuster, and you should look for points in different areas of the offense.
WR Darius Slayton (NYG vs PHI) vs James Bradberry
Slayton has been the most consistent option for the Giants at wide receiver in recent weeks. However, he is walking into a tough situation against the perimeter corners for Philadelphia. Both Bradberry and Darius Slay are allowing 0.22 fantasy points per coverage snap or less. The Philadelphia defense, as a whole, ranks in the top 10 against opposing receivers, and that is likely to continue this week.
WR George Pickens (PIT vs BAL) vs Marlon Humphrey
The Pittsburgh offense has been inconsistent all season. They have struggled to find a quarterback, and the run game has also struggled. On top of the inconsistency, Pittsburgh is walking into a tough matchup against the Baltimore secondary. Humphrey is currently allowing 0.22 fantasy points per coverage snap and should line up against Pickens roughly 70% of the time. Pickens will be able to escape as he moves across the field
TE Tyler Conklin (NYJ vs BUF)
Conklin has not played a major role in this offense since Week 8. He caught just two passes against his old team last week. When he faced Buffalo earlier this season, he had just a single catch for seven yards. Buffalo is allowing just 9.1 fantasy points per game on the season and is a tough matchup for any tight end. Avoid Conklin this week, as he has not played a major role in the offense in the second half of the season.
TE Dawson Knox (BUF vs NYJ)
The last two weeks have been extremely frustrating for Knox. He had a single target last week and could not catch the high pass. The previous week he had just two targets. The floor for Knox is zero, and the ceiling is not that high, either. He has topped double-digit fantasy points twice and has yet to surpass 15 points. Avoid both tight ends in this matchup if possible.