This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup
WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs HOU) vs Derek Stingley
At first glance, it may seem like this will be a down matchup for Brown. Houston is currently allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. However, Stingley has struggled immensely so far and has allowed the second-most yards in coverage this season (507). He was asked to follow Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams, and Davante Adams, who all had seven or more catches and averaged 110 yards between them. It is a tough spot for Stingley, and Brown is coming off his dominant performance against the Steelers. Look for another solid performance from Brown this week.
WR Joshua Palmer (LAC vs ATL) Isaiah Oliver
The Chargers’ offense has struggled at times this season, but they are walking into a great matchup against a struggling defense coming off their Bye week. Atlanta is currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the third-most to outside receivers. With Mike Williams injured, Palmer will get a free run on the outside. Keenan Allen is still banged up and has not returned to form on the other side, and A.J. Terrell, the Falcons’ best cover corner, has also missed time due to injury. If there were ever a week for Palmer to step up in the offense, it would be this week
WR Curtis Samuel (WAS vs MIN) vs Chandon Sullivan
Despite being 6-1, the Vikings’ defense has been mediocre so far this season. The secondary continues to be a weak spot and is not something they addressed with the trade deadline this week. Sullivan is being targeted the least out of any primary defender and is still allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to receivers on the team. Despite only being targeted 11% of the time, he is still allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage snap. This is narrowly beaten out by Cameron Dantzler allowing 0.42 points, but he is being targeted 24% of the time. Sullivan continues to give up touchdowns and the big play, and those are two things that Samuel is known for.
WR Chris Godwin (TB vs LAR) vs Troy Hill
The Rams do not look like a team that won the Super Bowl a season ago. The offense has struggled to score points, and the defense is being left on the field to try and clean up the mess. Hill has struggled mightily in the slot and allows 0.64 fantasy points per coverage snap while being targeted 20% of the time. He is being picked on in this defense and is going to have a tough time with Godwin this week. Godwin looks fully healthy and has become a favorite target of Tom Brady again. Look for another solid week with a high volume of targets for Godwin.
TE Evan Engram (JAX vs LV)
Engram has seen at least six targets in each of his past four games. A safe target floor for a tight end is about all you can ask for if you do not have any of the top players. Engram has double-digit points in three out of his past four games and scored a season-high 15.5 last week with a touchdown. He has a solid matchup against a Raiders team that is allowing 16.2 fantasy points per game and 6 touchdowns this season to opposing tight ends. Engram is a solid streaming choice this week at the thin tight end position.
TE Zach Ertz (ARZ vs SEA)
The return of DeAndre Hopkins has done little to eat into the production of Ertz so far this year. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game so far this year and is walking into a solid matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks are allowing 15.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends and have struggled to stay consistent in the secondary as a whole. At a thin position, Ertz is a must-start every week right now.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Brandin Cooks (HOU vs PHI) vs Darius Slay
There is no guarantee that Slay will shadow Cooks this week, but they line up on the same side roughly 75% of the time, even if he does not follow. The Eagles are currently allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, and Slay has allowed just 20 catches for 229 yards and a single touchdown on 230 coverage snaps. Cooks made it known he wants out of Houston and was not moved at the deadline this week. There is not much to be excited about with the Houston offense, and that is even worse in a tough matchup against Philadelphia this week.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs ARZ) vs Byron Murphy
Murphy has been asked to do a lot so far this season. He has shadowed Cooper Kupp, Davante Adamas, and Justin Jefferson. Adams was held to 2 catches for 12 yards and a touchdown, Kupp was held to 4 catches for 44 yards, and Jefferson had the best day with 6 catches for 98 yards. Murphy has more than held his own against big receivers and limited Metcalf to 2 catches for 34 yards in their matchup earlier this year. As a whole, Arizona is allowing the 6th most fantasy points to outside receivers despite the success of Murphy. Metcalf is going to get his targets but lower your overall expectations in a tough matchup this week.
WR Gabe Davis (BUF vs NYJ) vs Ahmad Gardner
The Jets’ defense has been playing well against receivers over the past month. They are allowing the eighth-fewest points and the second-fewest to perimeter receivers over that stretch. A large chunk of the success is because of Gardner. He is going to see a mix of both Stefon Diggs and Davis this week. Diggs has shown to be nearly matchup-proof so far this year and will get his targets. The tougher matchup against Gardner should downgrade Davis on the other side. Even if he escapes opposite of Gardner, he will still run into D.J. Reed, who is also playing extremely well over the past month.
WR Mike Evans (TB vs LAR) vs Jalen Ramsey
It is tough to predict where Ramsey is going to play each week. He has not been asked to shadow full-time a lot this season, and the historical matchups against Tampa Bay have seen him split time between Evans and Chris Godwin. Ramsey does not typically travel to the slot, and Godwin lines up there 74% of the time. Look for Ramsey to prioritize Evans when he is lined up outside and limit the big receiver. Tom Brady has shown he will throw to Evans no matter who is in coverage, so expect Evans to still see his targets. This is not a scenario where you consider benching Evans but is one where we lower our overall expectations.
WR D.J. Moore (CAR vs CIN) vs Chidobe Awuzie
Moore had a big game against Atlanta last week, securing a last-second hail mary for a touchdown before a silly penalty sent the game to overtime. This week he is going to be rewarded with Awuzie in shadow coverage. Awuzie is allowing just 0.17 fantasy points per coverage snap and is the biggest reason the Bengals’ defense has not been worse this season. The Carolina offense has been inconsistent all year and will likely struggle this week against Cincinnati. Moore has gotten a boost with a new quarterback but is walking into one of his toughest matchups of the season.
WR Davante Adams (LV vs JAX) vs Tyson Campbell
Campbell has stepped up since Shaquill Griffin went on the IR. He has been asked to shadow Mike Williams and Courtland Sutton and has limited that duo to 2 catches for 28 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. He has done a great job on the outside against big receivers and is expected to lock up with Adams this week. The Raiders' offense laid an absolute egg against the Saints last week and has been up and down all season. Adams is still a top receiver and can break out at any time, but we can lower expectations in a tougher-than-usual matchup this week.
TE Hunter Henry (NE vs IND)
The Colts currently rank in the middle of the pack against tight ends, but Henry has just not played well in recent weeks and should be avoided. He has just 2 catches for 34 yards on 3 targets in the past two weeks combined. Henry has fallen back to his early-season production and is just not a big part of this offense right now. The tight end position is very thin, but this is a name to avoid if possible.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs MIA)
Kmet scored his 1st touchdown since the 2020 season last week and should benefit from Justin Fields playing better in recent weeks. However, he has yet to score double-digit fantasy points this season despite the touchdown last week. Miami ranks just outside the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and the Bears traded for Chase Claypool, who should take some targets away from Kmet. Avoid this situation until he shows to consistently be a bigger part of the Bears’ offense.