This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs ARZ) vs Marco Wilson
There has been a revolving door at corner for the Cardinals so far this season, and they are going to face a tough test this week against Brown and the Eagles. The shuffling of Marco Wilson and Trayvon Mullen to the outside will make what is already the seventh-worst perimeter defense an even bigger hole to attack. Brown lines up on the outside 75% of the time and should see a lot of Wilson. Wilson has been targeted on 24% of his coverage snaps and will likely be picked on early and often. This game has a lot of offensive potential, and Brown will likely land on the right side of it.
WR K.J. Osborn (MIN vs CHI) vs Kyler Gordon
Gordon is having a season to forget so far as he is currently allowing 0.62 fantasy points per coverage snap, which is second worst only behind Terrance Mitchell from Tennessee. Osborn has seen only slightly less of a target share than Adam Thielen and has the better matchup of the two this week. Osborn scored the game-winning touchdown against the Lions two weeks ago. Look for him to see an increased share this week and to be a sneaky flex play in daily fantasy.
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs TEN) vs Terrance Mitchell
As mentioned above, Mitchell is currently allowing the most fantasy points per coverage snap in the league this season. The Titans’ secondary is currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers as well as the second-most to outside receivers. McLaurin has had a very up-and-down season so far this year but is walking into a great matchup. He is only being targeted on 15% of his routes run right now, but that could all change with a matchup against Mitchell looming. Curtis Samuel and Johan Dotson have been hogging the touchdowns, but McLaurin should be the more productive receiver this week.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs NO) vs Paulson Adebo
Normally Adebo would line up against DK Metcalf on the left side, but the Saints typically use Marshon Lattimore to shadow big receivers like Metcalf. This will leave Adebo on Lockett for the majority of the game and that puts the advantage squarely on Lockett. Adebo is currently allowing 0.52 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted roughly 23% of the time. Geno Smith has started to click with Metcalf, and he will see his targets, but this week has the makings of the Lockett big game we have become accustomed to every season. Lockett moves squarely into a WR2 position this week with a WR1 ceiling.
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs LAR) vs Jalen Ramsey
The Rams' secondary has not looked good so far this year. They are currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers and are very thin behind Ramsey. There is no guarantee that Ramsey is going to stick with Lamb this week, but Ramsey is still allowing 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap even if he does. Cooper Rush has done a good job getting the ball into Lamb’s hands, and there should be no downgrade this week. Look for the Dallas offense to run on all cylinders this week against a surprisingly down Rams defense.
TE Zach Ertz (ARZ vs PHI)
There are a lot of things working in Ertz’s favor this week. He has a revenge game against the franchise that traded him to the Cardinals, and he has already seen a lot of success this season. He is currently sitting at TE3 in fantasy scoring and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. He has been targeted 10 times in the red zone, and his four end zone targets are tied with Travis Kelce for most at the position. The Philadelphia defense has been tough so far this year, but Ertz has so many things working in his favor that he is a must start.
TE David Njoku (CLE vs LAC)
Cleveland has had a tough road so far this year, but Njoku is currently playing up to the massive deal he signed in the offseason. He had 5 catches for 73 yards and a fumble lost last week, but his usage numbers continue to be high. He currently leads the team in yards per route run and has been targeted on nearly 30% of those routes. He could see an increase in volume if the Browns are chasing points against the Chargers this week and is a good bet to approach double-digit fantasy points again this week.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson
Jefferson made this side of the list in a shadow scenario last week against Marshon Lattimore and still dominated the matchup. This week he will likely see a lot of Johnson on the outside. To this point, Johnson has played 100% of his snaps on the right side, and Jefferson lines up there roughly 24% of the time. Johnson has not shadowed in any game yet this season but has done so in the past. He is currently allowing 0.09 fantasy points per coverage snap and could be used to try and slow Jefferson down. Jefferson is too good to bench in any format, but he may not have the big game like he did against the Saints last week.
WR Christian Kirk (JAX vs HOU) vs Desmond King
Kirk has been a solid addition to the Jaguars' offense so far this year. He had six catches in each of his first three games as well as three touchdowns. The rain slowed him down last week, but he still managed 63 total yards. However, this week he has a matchup against one of the better-performing slot corners in the league. King is allowing just 0.11 fantasy points per coverage snap and has only been targeted on 6% of those same routes. The Houston defense may not be very good as a whole, but King and Kirk will match up this week. The advantage goes to King right now.
WR Michael Pittman (IND vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain
The Colts have been a mess on offense so far this year and will be without Jonathan Taylor on Thursday Night. This normally would give Pittman a slight bump due to higher volume potential, but he will be shadowed by Surtain and a tough Broncos secondary. They are currently allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and the fourth-fewest to outside receivers. Surtain has allowed just 103 yards and no touchdowns in work against DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, and Brandon Aiyuk. The 2021 first-round pick has been playing lights out and should continue that trend this week against Pittman.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs NO) vs Marshon Lattimore
Lattimore continues to draw the tough assignments for the Saints' secondary. He has shadowed Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson this season and had good results. Jefferson did eclipse 100 total yards but was held out of the end zone through the air. In their meeting last season, Lattimore fell down on the game's opening play and saw Metcalf sprint for an 84 yards touchdown. However, he was limited to one catch for 12 yards after that. The Saints continue to trust Lattimore on an island against big receivers, which should be the case against Metcalf again this week. We will likely not see a repeat performance of last week from Metcalf.
WR Rashod Bateman (BAL vs CIN) vs Chidobe Awuzie
Bateman and the Ravens' offense has looked good so far this season. He is being targeted regularly and is emerging as the best option behind Mark Andrews. However, this week they will face a tough assignment against a Bengals' secondary that has allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points on the fifth-most wide receiver targets (90). Bateman lines up outside 84% of the time and will likely see Awuzie a ton, even if it is not a shadow situation. He also does not have more than seven targets in any game and has only cleared 60 yards once. Look for a down week from Bateman as Baltimore looks to feed J.K. Dobbins and Andrews early and often this week.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC vs CLE) vs Greg Newsome
There is still a lot up in the air regarding Allen’s injury. He has been held out the past few weeks and did not practice on Wednesday. If he is ruled healthy enough to go this week, he will be walking into a tough matchup against Newsome in the slot. Cleveland is currently allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing slot receivers and will look to continue that trend against the Chargers. Have another option ready to go due to the injury concerns, but he may be worth keeping on the bench for another week due to the matchup.
TE Dawson Knox (BUF vs PIT)
After exploding last season, Knox has considerably cooled down in the offense this year. He has yet to find the end zone through four weeks and has not surpassed double-digit fantasy points. He had a season-high six targets last week but has not surpassed four in any other game this year. Knox is a touchdown-dependent tight end right now and seems to have been lost in the mix of offensive weapons for the Bills. With Josh Allen at quarterback, there is always the chance for a big game, but Knox does not have the usage to show that yet this season.
TE Irv Smith (MIN vs CHI)
Smith has largely been a disappointment for the Vikings so far this season. He is a big and athletic tight end that should play a major role in the offense, but he is simply not getting the targets. He is second on the team, behind only Justin Jefferson, in end zone targets and has produced just a single touchdown. The Bears’ defense has been good against tight ends so far this year and is allowing just eight points per game and a single touchdown to the position. Until the Vikings start to use him more, Smith belongs on the bench in most leagues.