This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs SEA) vs Artie Burns
There are a lot of people high on Sutton heading into this season and he walks into a great Week 1 matchup against a Seattle secondary that lost its top corner from a season again in D.J. Reed and with Tre Brown on the physically unable to perform list. This would already account for a great matchup, but multiply that with a major upgrade at quarterback in Russell Wilson and the season should start with a bang for Sutton. Burns allowed .43 fantasy points per route run against him last season and has a tough matchup to start this season.
WR Sammy Watkins (GB vs MIN) vs Cameron Dantzler
Most of us know the Week 1 Sammy Watkins history, but this season he has a matchup and new quarterback that makes it entirely a possibility again. The Vikings gave up the most fantasy points per game to receivers last season and were entirely overmatched outside of glimpses from Patrick Peterson. Allen Lazard should draw the attention of Peterson and leave Watkins to run free against Dantzler. With the confidence of Arron Rodgers, there should be little issue starting Watkins this week.
WR Rondale Moore (ARZ vs KC) vs LJarius Sneed
There were times when Sneed looked great last season, but he truly fell off at the end of the year. He allowed 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap last season and struggled by allowing volume in the slot. Moore is poised to take a big step forward early this season with DeAndre Hopkins suspended and should be part of a high-scoring Week 1 matchup against the Chiefs. Look for fireworks in this one and some high-scoring performances from several receivers.
WR Tyler Boyd (CIN vs PIT) vs Arthur Maulet
There are a lot of weapons in the Cincinnati offense, but none are more overlooked than Boyd. It is easy to gravitate towards the big plays on the outside, but Boyd has the best matchup in the slot this week against the Steelers. Maulet allowed .46 fantasy points per coverage snap in limited action last season and will see limited help from Cameron Sutton as he locks up with JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside. The Bengals will look to build on their success from last season early against their divisional foe and Joe Burrow has had no issue running up the score and throwing deep into games in the past. Look for Boyd to put up solid numbers in Week 1.
WR Christian Kirk (JAX vs WAS) vs Benjamin St-Juste
Kirk has a lot to prove with the contract he received, and this offense needs a kickstart with all of the top picks it has had recently. That is entirely possible on both fronts in Week 1 as Kirk will battle St-Juste in the slot. It was not a kind season for St-Juste last year as he allowed .42 fantasy points per coverage snap last season. While it was in limited action and fewer than 200 snaps, it is hard to see a massive leap forward this season. Kirk is stepping into a good spot and should see high volume throughout the season. It will be hard to outperform the contract he received, but he has a great Week 1 matchup to start trying.
WR DeVante Parker (NE vs MIA) vs Noah Igbinoghene
As revenge games go, this is one of the more tame ones in Week 1. Parker was the clear number 1 receiver for Miami before their massive overhaul, and he will get a chance to show them what they let go early this season. He has a great matchup against Igbinoghene who allowed .53 fantasy points per coverage snap last season. Nik Needham and Xavien Howard will do a great job locking up the rest of the receivers and Parker should be able to run free in his matchup. Look for him to be targeted early and often by Mac Jones as the Patriots try and fight back within the division they have dominated for the past decade.
TE Irv Smith (MIN vs GB)
This is certainly not one of the flashier names you would expect, but Smith is finally healthy and has the keys to the offense from the tight end position this year. Kyle Rudolph is no longer in the picture and Tyler Conklin showed glimpses of being a viable tight end in this offense last year. Kirk Cousins is going to throw the ball more with the new coaching staff and Smith is a big red zone target that was drafted early in the hopes of being the Vikings' tight end of the future. He takes on a Packers defense that allowed 10.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends and allowed eight touchdowns to the position.
TE Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN vs SEA)
The name may be difficult to spell, but Okwuegbunam is walking into a great situation this season. He is healthy and got a major upgrade at quarterback in Russell Wilson. He is a big and athletic tight end that should get a lot of work in the red zone and is taking on a team that allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends last season (12.9) and 9 touchdowns. Look for Wilson and Okwuegbunam to connect early in Week 1 against the Seahawks.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Stefon Diggs (BUF vs LAR) vs Jalen Ramsey
Diggs is not a player that you will sit at any point this season unless he is hurt, but he has one of the toughest matchups of the week against Ramsey. The Rams love deploying him against the opposition’s top receiver, and he will often follow them across the field and play any position to do so. Ramsey followed the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Davante Adams in different situations last season and is primed to do the same against Diggs in Week 1. Diggs will still see his targets but temper expectations a little with Ramsey looking to be in coverage.
WR Brandin Cooks (HOU vs IND) vs Stephon Gilmore
Houston is poised to have a better season offensively, and much of that is going to run through Cooks. However, he has one of the toughest draws for this receiver group in Gilmore. The Colts did not utilize their top corners in 1-on-1 following situations last season, but they have a new defensive coordinator this year that often did this with the Chargers and Raiders. There is a chance that Gilmore travels with Cooks in Week 1 and that should lower your expectations for his overall numbers.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC vs LV) vs Nate Hobbs
Allen has been a constant producer for this offense over his tenure, but he has a few things working against him heading into Week 1. First, he is entering his age-30 season, and that has historically come with a dip in production. Second, Mike Williams continues to emerge as the top option for Justin Herbert and take targets away from Allen. Finally, he draws a tough matchup against Hobbs, who was one of the best slot corners in the league last season. Allen has age catching up with him, a potential loss in target share, and a tough matchup in Week 1. He is a great receiver, but he has a lot working against him in Week 1 at his typical price tag.
WR Michael Thomas (NO vs ATL) vs Casey Hayward
The Saints went from one of the lowest-rated receiver groups last season to a suddenly crowded room in the offseason. Thomas is still dealing with some lingering injury issues, and there is uncertainty surrounding his hamstring. Even without the injury issue, he is walking into a tough matchup against Hayward who allowed just 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap last season. This ranks him as one of the top cover corners from last year and he will likely see a lot of Thomas if he is on the field. Monitor the injury updates a little closer to Sunday and be ready to pivot if needed.
WR Robert Woods (TEN vs NYG) vs Adoree Jackson
Woods is looking to break in with a new team after suffering a season-ending injury with the Rams last year. There is a lot of volume to be soaked up with the departure of A.J. Brown, but Woods is walking into a tough matchup against Jackson on the outside. The Titans also love running the ball and will look to get Derek Henry going early after he missed time last season due to injury. Woods has a chance to step up in this offense, but it is unlikely to happen in Week 1 in a tough matchup against Jackson.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson
There were times last season when Johnson looked like a lockdown corner, and he followed top receivers all over the field. Then there were times when he was burned left and right. The Bears did not use him in this capacity against the 49ers last season with Deebo Samuel lining up all over the field, and that could be the case again this year. However, even with playing just on his side, Johnson should line up against Aiyuk nearly 60% of the time. This 49ers offense may be without George Kittle in Week 1 and has historically loved to run the ball. Avoid Aiyuk early this season in what could be a tough matchup until there is a clearer picture of how this new offense will run with Trey Lance.
TE Mike Gesicki (MIA vs NE)
There is a lot of excitement surrounding the new-look Miami offense. However, most of that does not include Gesicki. He excelled last season while playing more of a receiver role in the slot but was moved inside a lot during the preseason and asked to block more. In theory, Tyreek Hill should take the top off the defense and give room underneath for Gesicki to soak up targets, but that was not the indication through 3 preseason games. He also draws a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Avoid Gesicki until a clear role has been established.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs BUF)
Higbee has his chance to excel last year when Robert Woods got injured, and the big tight end failed to eclipse 70 receiving yards in any game. This season, the Rams brought in Allen Robinson, who is projected to see a heavy target share and diminishes even more of Higbee’s value. He also draws a tough matchup against a Bills defense that allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (8.8) and just four touchdowns to the position. If you want to stream tight ends in Week 1, look elsewhere.