Linebacker Cornucopia
2022 is developing into a good year for NFL linebackers. Bobby Wagner and Foye Oluokun signed lucrative multi-year contracts in free agency. The notoriously frugal Patriots extended Ja’Whaun Bentley. Myles Jack and Jordan Hicks each scored two-year deals with new teams for significant money even though their former teams were moving on from them.
Each of these players has maintained good health and currently ranks among the top 50 off-ball linebackers in fantasy points. The health of nearly all fantasy-relevant linebackers has held up through eleven weeks of play. Shaquille Leonard is one of perhaps just three notable exceptions residing on the NFL’s reserve/injured list, and he came into the season with health questions.
Utilization of three-receiver sets grew throughout the second decade of the 21st century. As addressed in Week 10’s edition of Reading the Defense, dime sub-packages increased in usage as well.
The trend toward 11-personnel seemed to max out by 2020. Defenses might have overcorrected with six defensive backs. Dime sub-packages have decreased lately to the benefit of nickel sets. The linebacker position has thus recouped many of the snaps it lost to the secondary. Most NFL teams have settled into a pattern in which one linebacker plays full-time alongside a second that achieves a snap share of 75-95%.
An abundance of useful linebackers for fantasy football is the biggest implication of this sub-package equilibrium. The primary ramification of linebackers’ good health has been fewer options from the waiver wire. Those expecting to supplement their rosters with the “next man up” have found fewer options. Gamers chasing replacements for Anthony Walker, Divine Deablo, and Tremaine Edmunds have experienced additional frustration in landing the correct player.
Buying into a Saturated Market
Given the relative stability of the linebacker position, buyers may need to overpay to acquire difference-makers for their own rosters. Two of IDP fantasy football’s biggest names have fantasy playoff schedules, according to the Footballguys Custom Strength-of-Schedule tool, worth an overextended trade offer. C.J. Mosley and Fred Warner both currently lie outside the top ten linebackers in fantasy points per game, which should make them attainable for gamers willing to make aggressive offers.
Dre Greenlaw is nearly as attractive as his running mate, Fred Warner, for fantasy and could be available via trade at a lower cost due to his lesser name recognition. Perennially underrated Matt Milano (and his currently injured teammate Tremaine Edmunds) also faces a playoff schedule with three teams that yield above-average points allowed to opposing linebackers. Managers holding Greenlaw and Milano might view them as expendable depth pieces.
One of 2022’s biggest surprises, Frankie Luvu, could be a lesser-known name worth a risky investment. Luvu’s playing time recently dipped but recovered as he played through an injury. The buyer should investigate whether Luvu’s current manager is worried the loss of snaps could recur.
Fantasy gamers might have quit the Raiders’ linebacker corps altogether in the wake of Blake Martinez’s retirement. Jayon Brown, once a fantasy commodity as a Tennessee Titan, has emerged in the role that the injured Divine Deablo vacated. Brown faces the two teams allowing the most points to fantasy linebackers in the next two weeks, the Seahawks and the Chargers. He’ll also see a friendly playoff schedule against three teams that run their offenses through their running backs, the Patriots, Steelers, and 49ers.
Sanjit T. on Twitter The #Raiders new LB Jayon Brown could end up being the best LB in Patrick Graham's scheme. The play is a Tampa 2 and he's covering the vertical seam. What an outstanding job breaking the pass up. pic.twitter.com/z0u0HhYtel— Sanjit T. (@Sanjit__T) March 25, 2022 Twitter Sell High
In typical seasons, contenders would seek to parlay depth into high-end starters for a playoff run. The lack of supply-chain issues at linebacker in 2022 will make consolidating assets more difficult. The first maneuver to consolidate might be to move multiple notable names in suboptimal circumstances.
Devin Lloyd and Mykal Walker have produced well most of the season and rank among the top 25 linebackers in scoring on the Footballguys leaderboard. Each player also ceded snaps to a Day-2 rookie in his last outing. Even as a three-quarter-time player, neither has a schedule worth the risk as a fantasy start.
Walker’s teammate, Rashaan Evans, ranks as the #2 overall linebacker in Footballguys scoring. He’s on bye in Week 14 and faces a moribund playoff schedule of New Orleans, Baltimore, and Arizona.
Denver’s Josey Jewell has been great when healthy, but he doesn’t have a positive match-up the rest of the way. Each of Denver’s remaining opponents is giving up fantasy points to linebackers at a lower clip compared to the number of points per game those six teams’ opponents’ linebackers have scored in their other games.
Fantasy gamers should also feel free to divest themselves from the frustration that has been the Browns’ linebacker corps. If a trade partner can be convinced that Sione Takitaki or Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah will play full-time the rest of the way, the seller should move them. The Browns’ schedule doesn’t support the risk of inserting them in fantasy line-ups through the next six Sundays.
Cory on Twitter I really don't hate this rep from Sione Takitaki. It's honestly refreshing to see a LB get his eyes backside and work to get depth. Still a bit raw playing away from SAM, but I see glimpses of a guy that can play on more than a two-down basis. pic.twitter.com/3u2rCRD6uU— Cory (@realcorykinnan) November 15, 2022 Twitter
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Dynasty Futures
The prevailing advice of every dynasty column is to play for the future. Every year, draftniks sell gamers on the merits of linebackers selected in the middle rounds of the NFL draft. Like clockwork, these players trickle onto waiver wires in shallow leagues and remain forgotten on taxi squads in deeper leagues throughout the subsequent 18 months.
David Kelly of IDPGuys.org documented when players break out by position and draft round in his article, How to Determine When an IDP Break-out is Coming. Kelly qualified a “break-out” as an individual defensive player who finishes among the top 24 scorers at his position.
It should surprise no one that a player drafted outside of the first two rounds is highly unlikely to break out as a rookie. Most who follow the draft understand that NFL teams generally don’t expect these players to perform right away. Fantasy gamers nevertheless become enamored with thin depth charts but quickly lose hope when such players are unable to overtake journeymen veterans right away.
Kelly shows data supporting the notion of a third-year break-out for third-round linebackers. Two linebackers drafted in 2021 are on an upward trajectory in 2022: Ernest Jones and Monty Rice.
LB Ernest Jones, Los Angeles Rams
Sophomore linebacker Ernest Jones might have hoped for the lead role in the middle of the Rams’ defense after a strong Super Bowl run in 2021. The Rams, however, signed Bobby Wagner in free agency.
Jones has meanwhile settled solidly into the number-two role in L.A. He’s played 440 snaps through ten games, matching his 2021 total for the season. At a 72% snap share, he’s not much of a fantasy asset, but his continued development could earn him an even larger role in 2023, much like the linebackers highlighted in 2022’s first edition of Reading the Defense.
Jones has collected 70 tackles, including 2 for loss, a pass defensed, and a fumble recovery. He’s allowing an opposing quarterback rating of 90.8 while facing 33 targets from opposing quarterbacks. Pro Football Focus grades his performance at 72.3, up from 59.3 for the 2021 regular season.
Due to the excitement around Jones after the Super Bowl, he won’t be the easiest acquisition for dynasty gamers. The buyer can, however, make a strong offer moving current-year production to get a deal done.
Nate Tice on Twitter #50 Ernest Jones tracking Mattison down. And the great tackle short of the sticks on 3rd down pic.twitter.com/z5WFGPKKMh— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) July 5, 2022 Twitter LB Monty Rice, Tennessee Titans
Sophomore linebacker Monty Rice has battled injuries through much of his young career. Rice saw the field on defense in Weeks 9 to 11 of the 2022 season. Playing in relief of injured Zach Cunningham, Rice has collected 12 tackles, including 1 for loss, in 66 snaps. He’s allowing an opposing quarterback rating of 95.8.
The Titans would save $8.25 million by cutting Cunningham after the 2022 season. The Titans had the smallest available salary cap space of any NFL team at the trade deadline, and this situation doesn’t improve much going into 2023.
Rice should have an opportunity to compete to start for the Titans on opening day next year. His performance down the stretch will be an important indicator for his future.
Rice is among those players on whom dynasty gamers might be giving up. He could be a throw-in for rebuilding teams with the prospect of a useful 2022 role.
James Foster on Twitter Reminder that Monty Rice exists pic.twitter.com/gJVMpCB5W9— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) June 22, 2022 Twitter LB Derrick Barnes, Detroit Lions
Second-year linebacker Derrick Barnes is among those mid-round draft picks that dynasty gamers hoped would immediately climb a sparse depth chart. Those same gamers overlooked the fact that Barnes didn’t start playing off-ball linebacker at Purdue until his final season there. The position switch likely contributed to him sliding to the fourth round of the NFL Draft.
Barnes filled in for an injured starter and played his best game as a pro, according to his position coach. He now has 34 tackles, including 2 for loss and a quarterback sack. He’s scored a quarterback sack and allowed an opposing passer rating of 92.9. He’s earned 223 defensive snaps in 8 of his 10 games this season, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Per Pro Football Focus, Barnes was one of the worst linebackers in the league last season, earning a grade of 30.1. He has elevated his PFF grade in 2022 to 59.2.
Like Rice, Barnes’s performance in a part-time role down the stretch in 2022 will help coaches decide on his role and status going into 2023. Starting linebacker Alex Anzalone is again on a one-year deal in 2022 and could be replaceable.
Barnes, too, is a player to target as a throw-in. While the current manager may have held him for 18 months, the manager acquiring him now will see a verdict on his fantasy value in short order.
Matt Waldman on Twitter #Lions rookie LB Derrick Barnes with aggressive work and good hands location to attack and shed the OL for the stuff of David Montgomery pic.twitter.com/0wZakeARpf— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 28, 2021 Twitter Happy Thanksgiving!
Fantasy gamers likely spent the holiday passing plates and trading family stories while watching football. While many leagues have trade deadlines approaching, gamers must act aggressively to upgrade their linebacker corps. Their abundance in fantasy football will make them trickier to move than the heaping plate of mashed potatoes at Thanksgiving!
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.