The 2022 in-season trade deadline featured the greatest action in recent memory. Contenders made moves like baseball franchises. Fringe competitors reached for solutions at great cost. Just as in fantasy football, some of these moves will fuel championship runs; others will imbue managers with regret.
This week’s edition of Reading the Defense contemplates the fantasy value of each defender traded around Halloween weekend. Fantasy gamers’ own trade deadlines are fast approaching. The right trade could propel a fake team to a title the same way the L.A. Rams’ deal for Von Miller helped the future Hall-of-Famer to his second ring.
LB Roquan Smith, Chicago
The Ravens have sought anchors for the heart of its defense ever since the Jets lured middle linebacker C.J. Mosley away with $85 million. Current starting weak-side linebacker Patrick Queen is only the largest investment toward this goal. The team concluded last year that Queen couldn’t hold down the middle and brought in Josh Bynes. The 33-year-old journeyman has performed admirably but is a limited player in a part-time role.
The Ravens dealt reserve linebacker A.J. Klein and two future draft picks – a second and a fifth – for Chicago’s middle linebacker Roquan Smith. Smith should quickly step into the same role in Baltimore.
The passive gamer will assume all is well and stand pat with the top-scoring IDP in fantasy football. Roquan Smith was the near-consensus #1 preseason linebacker and lived up to the billing through eight weeks. He has nowhere to go but down in the new setting.
Ryan Mink on Twitter Days before the trade went down, @Patrickqueen_ was amazed by how many tackles Roquan Smith has made this season. Now they get to line up next to each other. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/E2bZs9TQPA— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) November 2, 2022 Twitter
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Smith has been among the league’s top tacklers in his career. His most recent defense, coordinated by Alan Williams, spilled tackle opportunities to the middle of the field, where Smith used his plus athleticism and instincts to chase down ball carriers. He has 83 tackles to his credit in 506 snaps, a tackle-per-snap rate of 16.4%.
Both Bynes and Queen exhibit tackle rates below 11%. Bynes lacks Smith’s athleticism, and Queen lacks his instincts. Smith should outperform both; however, Queen has played a nearly identical number of snaps to Smith in 2022 and has 30 fewer tackles. The six-percentage-point gap in tackle rate is an enormous one to close, even for Roquan Smith.
The aggressive fantasy gamer should target another LB1 and seek a second starting-caliber player to navigate bye weeks and injuries or, ideally, obtain an offensive player in return for the blue-chip IDP.
LB A.J. Klein, Chicago
The Bears asked for A.J. Klein in return from the Ravens for a reason: to play him. Klein fits best as a part-time strong-side linebacker in Chicago; however, the sheer dearth of options in the Bears’ linebacker room could press him into service in a larger role.
Klein last played a significant role in Buffalo last season. He collected 13 tackles, including three for loss and two passes defensed in 130 snaps in Weeks 10 and 11.
Klein is freely available in leagues of all sizes and could be a free square for needy rosters.
Footballguys Evan Ronda, John Norton, and Gary Davenport addressed other players impacted by the season’s highest profile trade of defenders in their weekly columns, Analyzing IDP Trends, Eyes of the Guru, and Living the Stream.
EDGE Bradley Chubb, Miami
Media outlets of all sizes are lauding the Dolphins’ extravagant purchase of pass-rusher Bradley Chubb from Denver. The Dolphins dealt two future picks – a first and a fourth – plus a running back for the right to sign Chubb to a $119 million contract extension.
These media outlets cite the Dolphins’ year-over-year changes in pass-rush production. They were near the top of the NFL in 2021 with 48 sacks and a pressure rate of 28.5% versus opposing quarterbacks. Through eight weeks, this year’s Dolphins have just 15 sacks. Their 14.8% pressure rate is the league’s fourth worst.
The problem, however, does not appear to be the team’s current pass-rushers. Jaelan Phillips, the team’s 2021 first-round pick, ranks among league leaders in pass-rush win rate, according to ESPN. Interior defender Christian Wilkins is also in elite company in his position group. Ancillary pieces Melvin Ingram III, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Andrew Van Ginkel are all playing adequately well according to advanced metrics.
In third place among league leaders in pass-rush win rate, Chubb outranks Phillips by seven spots. Chubb is beating his blocker(s) within 2.5 seconds 27% of the time, while Phillips is doing the same at a 23% clip.
The Dolphins’ newfound capacity to field two of the league’s most successful edge rushers alongside one of its most successful interior rushers seems certain to boost their pressure rate of opposing quarterbacks, but by how much?
Miami plays an aggressive, blitzing scheme that helps its pass rushers and stresses its cornerbacks in man coverage. The franchise understands its need at cornerback and possesses the most expensive duo in the NFL. Byron Jones, however, is recovering from a serious injury sustained in 2021 and has yet to take the field. Xavien Howard has uncharacteristically struggled. He’s allowing an opposing QB rating of 123.7, the worst of this career, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Kader Kohou, an undrafted free-agent rookie, has emerged as the second corner in Jones’s stead, but he’s allowing a quarterback rating of 98.3. Top slot defender Nik Needham is lost to a season-ending Achilles’ tendon injury. Spare parts have rotated in his place. First-round bust Noah Igbinoghene backs up Kohou and Howard.
There’s no news of Byron Jones’s imminent return. Bradley Chubb, then, is tasked with elevating this defense to a championship level. Whether he can prolong the best eight-game stretch of his career in a new setting remains to be seen. He leaves a team fourth in the NFL in sacks that was applying pressure on a quarter of its defensive snaps.
Less defensive success around Chubb is not the only threat to his fantasy value. Chubb joins a rotation of edge defenders that already has four regular players. Van Ginkel could be reduced to a special-teams player, but that frees up roughly 25 snaps per game (less than 40% of team defensive snaps). One highly possible outcome is that no Dolphins’ edge rusher averages 70% of available playing time going forward. Chubb has played no less than 71% of defensive snaps in a game for Denver this season.
The downward pressure on Chubb’s playing time, combined with the downgrade in cornerbacks behind him, set him up to disappoint fantasy gamers. Chubb is a great candidate to be packaged up with a secondary piece for a more established stud at his position.
LB Deion Jones, Cleveland
One-time IDP star Deion Jones arrives in Cleveland after a puzzling end to his tenure in Atlanta for nothing more than a late-pick upgrade. IDP gamers expect the name-brand player to assume the full-time role he was accustomed to before 2022.
Jones has played 52% and 77% of defensive snaps in Cleveland through two weeks. Browns coaches have offered that they’re deploying personnel that matches up best with their opponents each week. The Browns have played a full-time linebacker only three times this season. Jacob Phillips played a full workload for three weeks straight before a season-ending injury in Week 7 that seemed to precipitate the team’s trade for Jones.
Jones may yet grow into the role that Phillips vacated; however, Phillips himself split time with Anthony Walker before Walker was lost for the season. The fantasy gamer rostering Jones, who can find a leaguemate certain Jones’s role will increase, should seek a deal.
Fantasy Depth
Jekyll-and-Hyde producer Robert Quinn lands in Philadelphia a few months after complaining about the Bears’ defensive scheme under a new staff. He joins a group of pass rushers so deep that they platoon rather than rotate. He can be ignored except as a streamer in deeper fantasy leagues.
Recent Falcons safety Dean Marlowe played for the Bills from 2018 to 2020. He knows the system and should be ready to step into injured Micah Hyde’s free-safety spot if the youngsters on Buffalo’s roster falter further. Marlowe should provide a slight increase in confidence that perennial producer Jordan Poyer won’t be relegated to a fruitless deep role for the rest of the season.
The emergence of Baron Browning helped make Bradley Chubb expendable in Denver. Browning will pair with Randy Gregory in the starting line-up. The Broncos landed Jacob Martin of the Jets to backfill Chubb’s vacancy in the position group. Martin will join rookie Nik Bonitto in the second unit and can be largely ignored by fantasy gamers. Browning and Gregory might be sneaky buy-low candidates during their Week-9 bye in leagues where they have defensive line or edge rusher eligibility.
Veteran defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins transfers from Las Vegas to Dallas to improve its run defense. The part-time player is no fantasy asset.
Two cornerbacks changed teams. Rashad Fenton leaves Kansas City for Atlanta, while William Jackson III arrives in Pittsburgh from Washington. Jackson could emerge as a streaming option in cornerback-required leagues.
Analysis in Reading the Defense will equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.