Through six weeks of play, fantasy draft picks are largely known quantities. Players like Marcus Davenport and Chandler Jones aren’t going to live up to preseason expectations in 2022. Busts, injuries, and bye weeks leave all but the deepest rosters with makeshift line-ups going into November.
The active manager must navigate these constraints one week at a time with a position group of complementary players. Third- and fourth-tier defensive ends and, where applicable, edge defenders can be platooned to maximize output based on opponent. Struggling pass rushers who play large volumes of snaps can remain in line-ups versus NFL opponents expected to implement run-heavy game plans. Part-time pass rushers are boom/bust choices against quarterbacks who are prone to sacks or who lead big underdogs on a given Sunday.
Pass rushers who compile tackles typically do so in run defense. Pro Football Focus “Premium Stats” track tackles by run defense as a subset of total tackles for each player. Three defensive ends lead their position group with 22 tackles in run defense. Cameron Jordan, Maxx Crosby, and Demarcus Lawrence are credited by PFF with 23, 24, and 25 total tackles, respectively. All three rank among the top ten scorers among defensive ends at Footballguys.com.
(Of note, PFF tracks tackle numbers for its own use and does not rely on reports from stat crews upon which fantasy scoring is based. PFF tackle totals do not necessarily match official tackle totals.)
Situational Pass Rushers
Carl Lawson, New York Jets
Carl Lawson is tied for the league lead in quarterback knockdowns with eleven per Pro Football Reference. Like the pass rusher he’s tied with, Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson, Lawson has collected just 2.5 sacks. Through his first four games as a Jet, Lawson played fewer than 60% of snaps for his new team. In the past two, he’s been on the field for about three-quarters of the Jets’ defensive snaps.
Lawson and the Jets raise two questions about his fantasy value. Are the Jets for real? Has Lawson earned the increased workload going forward?
Fantasy gamers should be comfortable deploying Lawson this week versus vulnerable Russell Wilson and the Broncos rather than wait for the answers to these questions. Lawson is, at minimum, a matchup-based play against sack-prone quarterbacks. He may the potential to develop into a weekly starter as he puts last year’s preseason Achilles’ tendon tear further behind him.
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Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham, Philadelphia
The Eagles are known for platooning their own defensive lineman. The entire first unit shows premium efficiency, but none play a workload large enough to inspire confidence in fantasy gamers on Sunday mornings. Like Lawson, Graham is also performing remarkably well upon returning from an Achilles injury.
Graham is playing less than half of his team’s defensive snaps. His bookend, Josh Sweat, is on the field for fewer than two-thirds. The Eagles, however, have the second easiest schedule the rest of the way, per Mike Clay of ESPN. Fantasy gamers should have numerous opportunities to plug Sweat and Graham into their line-ups, including Week 15. Philadelphia travels to Chicago for the first round of the fantasy playoffs, where Justin Fields seems to be battling with his offensive line to prove that a sack is a quarterback stat.
Shaquil Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay
Shaq Barrett is one of the league’s most underappreciated pass rushers. He’s collected 39.5 sacks in 52 games as a Buccaneer after coming over from Denver in free agency.
According to ESPN's Clay, Barrett has just 2.0 sacks through six games in 2022, but his team faces the fifth easiest schedule going forward. He’ll visit a Carolina team in disarray in Week 7 and host the Panthers in Week 17 for the fantasy finals.
Barrett’s bookend Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is growing into his role after the Buccaneers made him their first-round pick in 2021. Tryon-Shoyinka is worth a look in deeper leagues with dual position designations or true positions.
Stopgap Run-Stoppers
Al-Quadin Muhammad, Chicago
Chicago’s Al-Quadin Muhammad ranks sixth in snaps played in run defense, tied with Deatrich Wise and Sam Hubbard. The Bears face the NFL’s toughest schedule from Weeks 7 through 18, according to Mike Clay, and appear certain to play uphill regularly.
His bookend Robert Quinn ranks among league leaders in double teams faced. With Quinn neutralized, Muhammad will see plenty of tackle opportunities as opponents grind out leads. The long season in Chicago should translate to longer box scores for the Bears’ top edge-setter.
Muhammad and the Bears host the Eagles in Week 15, typically the first round of fantasy playoffs. The Eagles are not only likely to play downhill all game, but they also lead the league in offensive snaps played and rushing attempts through six weeks. The high tempo fuels opportunities for tackles.
Travon Walker, Jacksonville
The first overall pick of the 2022 NFL draft is seeing all the playing time he can handle in Jacksonville. Travon Walker will need time to develop as a pass rusher, but his volume of snaps ensures tackle opportunities. He is ninth in the league with 127 snaps on run defense, as reported by Pro Football Focus Premium Stats.
The Jaguars have begun to show their stripes – er, spots – in recent weeks. They will face the Giants in Week 7 in a battle of pleasant surprises early in the 2022 season. A heavy dose of Saquon Barkley and regular scrambling from Daniel Jones create a solid floor of fantasy points for Walker via tackles.
Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit
The second overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft has been nearly invisible after pummeling Carson Wentz and the Commanders in Week 2. Like Robert Quinn, he has been neutralized by one of the highest double-team rates in the league.
The Lions are adjusting his deployment to reduce the traffic he faces each week. Detroit Sports Nation took a long look at Hutchinson’s performance versus Seattle, where he had his second-best game of the young season. He’s been on the field for 85% of the Lions’ defensive snaps, a very high number for an edge defender. PFF has recorded 120 snaps of Hutchinson in run defense, yet his Lions have already had their bye. If pro-rated for the bye, his workload in run defense jumps from eleventh to third in the league.
The Lions’ defense has been one of the league’s worst for several years now. Past results demonstrate that its pass rushers need not play well to produce for fantasy gamers. Charles Harris compiled 65 tackles and 7.5 quarterback sacks in 872 snaps in 2021. Hutchinson is on pace for 1,020 snaps currently.
Defensive Streamers
Fantasy gamers who use team defenses are accustomed to streaming defenses based on the strength of opposing offenses and their propensities to take sacks. The same logic can be successfully applied to sit/start decisions among IDPs.
Ample resources report useful data sets by which to determine productive matchups. TeamRankings.com ranks offenses by rushing attempts, total snaps, and sacks taken. Footballguy Ryan Sitzmann ranks teams by points allowed to specific defensive positions at his website, IDPGuru.com. Some fantasy football platforms include points against by position into their interfaces as well.
Fantasy gamers should always first take into account their league’s scoring and settings when choosing between a situational pass-rusher and a stopgap run-stopper. If a sack is worth five or more tackles, the successful pass-rusher is more likely the upside bet needed to win a week. In other scenarios, an edge-setter can establish a scoring floor particularly useful to a stronger fantasy team seeking to avoid an upset.
Analysis in Reading the Defense will equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.