Reading the Defense, Week 6

Tripp Brebner III's Reading the Defense, Week 6 Tripp Brebner III Published 10/14/2022

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Fantasy football gamers playing in mixed leagues, with offensive and defensive players, have long thought of defensive tackles like the tight ends of defense. Tackles have fewer opportunities to collect sacks than their pass-rushing brethren at defensive end. Tight ends have fewer opportunities to catch passes. Both defensive tackles and tight ends have obligations in the battle at the line of scrimmage that requires them to set the table for their teammates.

In recent years, the ranks of the tight-end position have included a top tier or two of quality players who serve as primary targets in their offenses. In 2022, the second tier behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews is vanishingly small. Each week, fantasy gamers are plugging in check-down options compiling receptions against today’s prevalent shell coverages.

The defensive-tackle position has evolved quite differently. In leagues that require the position, IDP fantasy gamers have targeted five top veterans and considered the rest as dart throws or, at best, boom/bust youngsters. Through Week 5 of 2022, the results yield an emerging tier of reliable options.

Players who have finished a season in the top twelve at their position comprise nine of the top twelve defensive tackles through the five weeks of 2022. Several of these, the aforementioned top veterans, have finished as DT1s in multiple seasons.

Of note, the Footballguys’ player database classifies Aaron Donald as a defensive end. In those leagues that he carries a defensive tackle designation, he’s clearly the top overall player at the position going back several years and going forward in 2022.

The Veteran Studs

Cameron Heyward, DeForest Buckner, Chris Jones, Jonathan Allen, and Jeffery Simmons have finished in the top twelve scorers at their position twenty times collectively. Simmons, the youngest of the group, leads all defensive tackles in fantasy points through five weeks. The Titan was a mid-first-round pick in 2019 despite an ACL tear feared to cost him his entire rookie season. Instead, he flashed in this first game and has been a top target among IDP gamers since.

Heyward, Buckner, and Allen all appear in the top seven defensive tackles on the current Footballguys leaderboard for defensive-tackle scoring. If his sack of Derek Carr had not been nullified by a soft call of “roughing the passer,” Chris Jones would also rank among DT1s as well.

The Undervalued

Five more players among the top twelve scorers among defensive tackles have finished one or more seasons among the top twelve at their position. DaRon Payne, the thirteenth overall pick of 2018, and Grady Jarrett have each posted three DT1 seasons.

Grady Jarrett, Atlanta

Jarrett has not achieved the feat since 2019. He had, at that point, been considered a veteran stud. Lean years in Atlanta have helped depress his numbers. A second underappreciated factor has been his deployment.

A new regime brought in veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees ahead of the 2021 season. Pees revealed this summer that he could only use 60 percent of his playbook in 2021. Jarrett and other incumbent defenders were ready to do more this season with a full year in the system. Pees is tasking Jarrett with more, and he’s delivering in 2022.

Quinnen Williams, NY Jets

Quinnen Williams, another bounce-back player, is benefitting from a striking improvement in pass-rushing performance around him. In their first seasons playing as Jets, Carl Lawson and Jermaine Johnson supplement a rush that finished 27th in pressure rate according to Pro-Football-Reference.com in 2021. Through the first five weeks of 2022, the Jets are in the middle of a remarkable turnaround. Their defense is pressuring opposing quarterbacks 28.9% of dropbacks versus 21.4% last season.

Williams, the former third overall pick, ranks among the top six defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate in both seasons. Despite his success in 2021, he played just 59% of the Jets’ defensive snaps. His share is up to 64% this year, back to where it was in his break-out sophomore season of 2020. His production in 2022 has likewise rebounded with help from the improved talent around him.

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Dexter Lawrence, NY Giants

Former Giants’ General Manager Dave Gettleman was broadly derided when he selected Dexter Lawrence with the 17th overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, two slots ahead of Jeffery Simmons. Lawrence was knocked as a two-down nose tackle.

Lawrence has grown in each of his four seasons as an NFL interior defender and disruptor. He ranks among the top ten interior linemen in pass-rush win rate per NFL NextGen Stats via ESPN metrics and is on pace for his second DT1 finish.

The Sleepers

After years of eating blocks for DeForest Buckner in San Francisco, D.J. Jones emerged as a top interior defender in 2021. Despite the relocation to Denver, Jones is on pace for a second DT1 season through five games in 2022.

Another unrestricted free agent, Justin Jones, arrived in Chicago with his first opportunity to start regularly. He is the featured interior disruptor in new head coach Matt Eberflus’s defense. He has taken advantage with 2.0 sacks and a 12th-place rank among defensive tackles in fantasy points.

B.J. Hill, Cincinnati

B.J. Hill was another of Dave Gettleman’s draft picks in New York. The 2018 third-round pick struggled to make an impact and was cut after three years. Cincinnati added him as a free agent to take a rotational role. Hill gradually earned more opportunities as 2021 progressed. Injuries cleared the way for him to play the bulk of his defense’s snaps during the Bengals’ Super Bowl run.

Hill started his first game as a Bengal in Week 12 last year. He played six regular season games and four post-season games. In this stretch, he collected 42 tackles and 4.0 quarterback sacks. At this pace, he would have been a top-six defensive tackle for IDP gamers in 2021

The Bengals liked what they saw in Hill. They let opening-day starter Larry Ogunjobi leave in free agency and re-upped Hill for $30,000,000 over three years. Hill has played more snaps than all but three interior defenders in the NFL through five weeks and ranks second on Footballguys’ leaderboard for defensive-tackle scoring for 2022.

Hill now owns a 15-game streak of DL1 production after almost total obscurity 14 months ago. At age 27, Hill is a wildcard as a dynasty asset. He’s also a producer at a reasonably young age, likely much more easily acquired than many other top-25 defensive linemen on the Footballguys’ leaderboard.

Efficiency or Volume?

Hill is one of ten players highlighted in this article that appear among the top seventeen interior defenders in defensive snaps according to Pro Football Focus (PFF.com). It’s no coincidence that volume translates to opportunities. Premier interior disruptors are rare and earn their time on the field. Premier players make plays.

This edition highlights just three interior defenders outside the top 24 in defensive snaps played so far in 2022. D.J. Jones has missed time with injury and should climb the ranks in this category. Quinnen Williams and Justin Jones must earn their place in fantasy line-ups on Sunday through superior pass-rush productivity. Williams has the career track record that demonstrates this ability.

ESPN metrics using NFL NextGen Stats have found 18 interior defenders with pass-rush win rates over 10%. Pro Football Focus identifies 19 interior defenders who have played at least 230 defensive snaps. (The leader in this category has played 281.) The following players appear in both of these select lists (in order of win rate): Chris Jones, Aaron Donald, Grady Jarrett, Zach Allen, Christian Wilkins, Kenny Clark, Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Jeffery Simmons, DaRon Payne, Matthew Ioannidis, Dre’Mont Jones, and Derrick Brown.

Most fantasy football platforms classify Zach Allen and DreMont Jones as defensive ends. Wilkins, Clark, and the Panthers’ duo are worth watching for defensive improvements that could boost their production as the season progresses. Wilkins, Clark, and Ioannidis all have DT1 seasons on their resumes. Wilkins, Clark, and Derrick Brown are all former first-round picks.

Chris Jones, Donald, Jarrett, Lawrence, Simmons, and the Commanders’ duo are the cream of the crop at defensive tackle. Five of these six studs rank in the top 25 defensive linemen (ends and tackles) in fantasy points to date. The seventh, Chris Jones, has always been an inefficient tackler, reliant on sacks for production.

Dynasty Risers

The stability of the results in fantasy scoring year-over-year is both impressive and perhaps underappreciated. Dexter Lawrence, DaRon Payne, and Quinnen Williams are on track to join Jeffery Simmons as perennial DT1s at age 25. This group is rising to succeed Aaron Donald and Cameron Heyward and to complement Jonathan Allen, Grady Jarrett, Chris Jones, and DeForest Buckner in a robust group of reliable producers. Dynasty gamers should prioritize this group not only in DT-required leagues but also for DL slots in shallower leagues with three defensive positions.

Analysis in Reading the Defense will equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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