Reading the Defense, Week 4

A Telling Timeline

Footballguy Adam Harstad verified what fantasy gamers have long considered in his piece, “Regression Alert - Revisiting Preseason Expectations: At what point should we stop caring about what we thought about players before the season began?” Harstad demonstrated that preseason expectations, expressed by average draft position, were typically more indicative of season-long results than early-season performance.

As September 2022 comes to a close, IDP fantasy gamers are understandably concerned about pass-rushers who have failed to impact box scores. This edition of Reading the Defense explores circumstances suppressing production and expectations of highly drafted defensive ends and outside linebackers.

The sack of the quarterback is the most impactful play a defender can make without generating a turnover. Sacks earn defenders Defensive Player of the Year honors and rookie honors (e.g., T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons, respectively, in 2021). A sack, however, is often the result of a series of events, not all of which are under the player’s control. Some would further say that a sack is a “quarterback stat.”

Von Miller, Buffalo

An obvious yet often overlooked statistic related to pass-rush success is snap count. A player must be on the field to collect a sack.

Buffalo’s Von Miller has played just 95 snaps through Week 3 of 2022. He has two quarterback sacks to his credit and is averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game (Footballguys scoring). If he was classified as a defensive lineman, he would be tied for 27th with Chicago’s Trevis Gipson. The Bears' situational pass rusher has played 73 snaps.

The NFL’s leader in snaps among edge rushers is Pittsburgh’s Alex Highsmith at 208. If Miller was rushing as often as Highsmith at Miller’s own success rate, Miller’s sack total would be dramatically higher. Miller’s pass-rush win rate is the NFL’s best in 2022, which follows his top-20 finish in this same metric last year.