Reading the Defense, Week 4

A Telling Timeline

Footballguy Adam Harstad verified what fantasy gamers have long considered in his piece, “Regression Alert - Revisiting Preseason Expectations: At what point should we stop caring about what we thought about players before the season began?” Harstad demonstrated that preseason expectations, expressed by average draft position, were typically more indicative of season-long results than early-season performance.

As September 2022 comes to a close, IDP fantasy gamers are understandably concerned about pass-rushers who have failed to impact box scores. This edition of Reading the Defense explores circumstances suppressing production and expectations of highly drafted defensive ends and outside linebackers.

The sack of the quarterback is the most impactful play a defender can make without generating a turnover. Sacks earn defenders Defensive Player of the Year honors and rookie honors (e.g., T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons, respectively, in 2021). A sack, however, is often the result of a series of events, not all of which are under the player’s control. Some would further say that a sack is a “quarterback stat.”

Von Miller, Buffalo

An obvious yet often overlooked statistic related to pass-rush success is snap count. A player must be on the field to collect a sack.

Buffalo’s Von Miller has played just 95 snaps through Week 3 of 2022. He has two quarterback sacks to his credit and is averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game (Footballguys scoring). If he was classified as a defensive lineman, he would be tied for 27th with Chicago’s Trevis Gipson. The Bears' situational pass rusher has played 73 snaps.

The NFL’s leader in snaps among edge rushers is Pittsburgh’s Alex Highsmith at 208. If Miller was rushing as often as Highsmith at Miller’s own success rate, Miller’s sack total would be dramatically higher. Miller’s pass-rush win rate is the NFL’s best in 2022, which follows his top-20 finish in this same metric last year.

ESPN pass-rush metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats data score Miller as the league’s most successful edge rusher in beating the block in less than 2.5 seconds. He’s won 46% of his reps versus opposing offensive linemen, a rate ten points higher than the second-place rusher (Micah Parsons) and 15 points ahead of the pack.

The Bills’ defense once again leads the NFL in yards allowed this season. The unit’s ability to slow opposing offenses and put pressure on quarterbacks will continue to help Miller in his objective to collect sacks and end drives.

Miller’s light snap count is a result of routs of inferior opponents in the season’s first two weeks. Miller was rested along with several other starters late in each game. In Week 3, the Bills ran 92 plays versus the Dolphins’ 43. Miller played about three-quarters of those 43 snaps on defense, an adequate share for a top pass-rusher.

Von Miller will likely play most of his games this season in more typical game scripts. His elite ability on a strong defense should help him climb the fantasy points leaderboard of pass rushers. Miller should comfortably clear his preseason average draft position of 20th among defensive linemen on the Sleeper.

Montez Sweat, Washington

A pass rusher’s first task at the snap is to beat the block. The second is to reach the quarterback. Despite a zero in the column under “QB sacks,” Montez Sweat is tied with three other pass rushers with five quarterback knockdowns.

Sweat got to Trevor Lawrence three times in a game the Commanders largely controlled from start to finish. Sweat and his defensive line mates helped their team hand the Jaguars their only loss. Sweat faced two of the league’s top tackle tandems in Weeks 2 and 3. Detroit and Philadelphia have allowed eleven sacks between them while Sweat’s quarterback Carson Wentz has taken fifteen.

Montez Sweat was the 23rd defensive lineman off the board, on average, in Sleeper leagues. He remains a solid bet to provide a return on fantasy gamers’ investment as a DE2.

Jaelan Phillips, Miami

As the 27th defensive lineman off the board in Sleeper leagues, Jaelan Phillips’s ADP suggests gamers were considering him as a starter for their line-ups. Gamers hope the blitz-happy Dolphins’ pass rusher will build on his 8.5-sack rookie season.

Phillips played a reserve role in a deep rotation as a rookie and offered a boom/bust profile as a DE3 for 2022. Though four weeks of 2022, it’s been almost all bust. He finally notched a sack in Week 4 in Cincinnati and has only six tackles to his credit. He’s also missed four tackles.

Phillips earned the starting nod over the summer and has increased his snap share from 54% to 71% year over year. In contrast with the inauspicious box scores, he’s beaten his block in 26% of his pass-rush snaps through three weeks. He’s winning at a higher rate than all but six other NFL pass rushers. His lack of success is partly attributed to the blitz-busting quarterbacks he’s faced, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.

Expectations of 12 sacks were always optimistic, but Jaelan Phillips is showing enough in the early going of the NFL season that gamers should hold and expect him to meet or exceed his rookie numbers.

Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, New Orleans

The Saints’ Cameron Jordan has been producing for so long that he’s been taken for granted for years. After a quiet 2020, Jordan rebounded with 12.5 sacks of the quarterback last season. His younger bookend Marcus Davenport broke out in 2021, collecting 9.0 sacks in 11 games.

The Saints’ previously prolific duo has a single sack between them three games into the 2022 season. The entire team has four quarterback sacks to its credit, tied for the fourth lowest total in the league. At their current pace, they would finish with half as many sacks as in 2021 (46).

The Saints promoted their defensive coordinator, Dennis Allen, to head coach last spring. Allen named co-coordinators to succeed him: Ryan Neilsen and Kris Richard. This duo has called fewer blitzes and run more two-high safety coverages. The Saints generated about half as much pressure on the quarterback year over year.

Four of the five starters in the Saints’ secondary from 2021 are missing this season. Only cornerback Paulson Adebo will return. The group lost Marcus Williams, an eraser in deep centerfield, to free agency. Locker room leader Malcolm Jenkins retired. The team traded nickel defender and tone-setter Chauncey Gardner-Johnson days before the 2022 season kicked off.

The Saints have played their three games against their NFC South rivals. Their defense’s four sacks to date sharply contrast with the 21 sacks the unit collected in six intradivisional games last season. Davenport and Jordan’s lack of success through three games in 2022 bode poorly for their rest-of-season outlook. While Jordan continues to excel in run defense, Davenport has evolved into a boom/bust option with a floor too low for a weekly fantasy starter.

Buy Low, Win Later

The Bills might be favored in every game they play this year. Von Miller will have numerous chances to play downhill as his unit defends leads. They draw the Bears in Week 16, the semifinal week of most fantasy playoffs.

Montez Sweat and the Commanders draw the Bears, the Colts, and the injury-depleted Titans in October and face the Giants twice later in the season. His schedule features some of the league’s most vulnerable quarterbacks in 2022.

At 3-1, the Dolphins also look like a team that will often play in a positive game flow. Their date with the Bears comes in November, which is followed by two home games. Jaelan Phillips should help fantasy gamers in their stretch run.

Marcus Davenport will face Kirk Cousins and the Vikings this week. Footballguys subscribers contemplating their options can choose from an abundance of resources for alternatives from IDL and Edge Streaming Matchups by Joey Haggan, Living the Stream by Gary Davenport, and IDP Waiver Wire by Kyle Bellefeuil.

Analysis in all these columns will equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Gamers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.