Perhaps the biggest story in IDP fantasy football through two weeks has been the number of surprises among safeties. Sites like Footballguys published articles Monday and Tuesday of this week and last with a bevy of options at the position likely on waiver wires in fantasy football leagues of nearly all sizes.
The typical fantasy gamer couldn’t afford to roster all of the options. The astute gamer would want to know which breakout performances were sustainable. As the saying goes, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”
Safety in FAAB Investment
Tackles comprise the foundation of IDP fantasy football scoring. Through two weeks, 11 of the top 25 tacklers in the NFL are safeties. Houston Texans safety Jonathan Owens leads the league with 25 combined tackles. No safety finished higher than 18th in combined tackles in 2021 (Pittsburgh’s Minkah Fitzpatrick).
The top-six scoring safeties at Footballguys.com includes two holdovers and four players largely undrafted in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues, including Owens. (Of note, Footballguys scoring leans tackle-heavy by omitting any bonus for tackles for loss and crediting pass break-ups at the same rate as solo tackles {1.5 points}). Of these six, the first four have played most of their snaps deep, ten to twenty yards from the line of scrimmage at the snap.
| Rank | Player | Team | Games | Tackles | Assists | Sacks | FFs | FRs | PDs | INTs | TDs | FP/G | FanPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcus Williams | BAL | 2 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 24.4 | 48.8 |
| 2 | Minkah Fitzpatrick | PIT | 2 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 21.5 | 43.0 |
| 3 | Harrison Smith | MIN | 2 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17.5 | 35.0 |
| 4 | Jonathan Owens | HOU | 2 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16.5 | 33.0 |
| 5 | Talanoa Hufanga | SF | 2 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16.4 | 32.8 |
| 6 | Darrick Forrest | WAS | 2 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16.1 | 32.2 |
The four safeties atop the leaderboard defy conventional wisdom in IDP fantasy football that players lining up deep have low odds of collecting stats. The player farthest from the ball at its snap is less likely to be the first to the ball for a tackle.
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for IDP (individual defensive players) leagues. If this league is not a IDP (individual defensive players) league, you can edit your leagues here.
The Last Line of Defense?
Minkah Fitzpatrick finished first among safeties in Footballguys scoring in 2021 despite lining up deep 79% of his snaps. He increased his tackle total by 64% year over year and led the league’s safeties with 124 tackles despite no change in pre-snap alignment distribution. He collected 48 of these in run defense at an average depth of 11.3 yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF.com).
The Steelers were the league’s worst run defense last year. They suffered from the losses of defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu and struggled to get off the field, playing the fifth most snaps in the league. Fitzpatrick’s support of the sieve-like front seven helped propel him up the fantasy leaderboard from 13th in 2020.
Jonathan Owens is following Fitzpatrick’s path to fantasy utility. According to Pro Football Focus, he has lined up deep on 79% of his snaps. He’s collected 13 of his 25 tackles in run defense at an average depth of 10.5 yards behind the weak middle of the Texans’ defense, and his unit is second behind only Pittsburgh’s in snaps through two games in 2022. Houston has allowed the third most rushing yards of NFL teams.
With no big plays and just one pass break-up, Owens is fourth among fantasy safeties in Footballguys.com scoring, while Fitzpatrick is second. The Steeler’s two interceptions, one returned for six, fuel his reappearance on the leaderboard.
Target Magnets
Baltimore’s prized free-agent signing, free safety Marcus Williams leads all safeties in fantasy points through two weeks. Like Owens, Williams spends most of his time deep (73% of snaps). The Raven, however, has collected most of his tackles in pass defense. He is the league’s second most frequently targeted safety by opposing quarterbacks. He’s allowed eleven receptions on thirteen targets but has also snared three interceptions, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Game flow has fueled Williams’s rise to the top of the fantasy leaderboard. The Ravens have twice faced furious comeback attempts by offenses with little choice but to force the ball downfield. The Ravens’ defense has allowed the most yards and the third most offensive plays of any NFL team through two weeks.
The Ravens are not going to build and relinquish three-score leads every week. The conditions fueling Williams’s fantasy production are unsustainable.
The most targeted safety in the NFL is Washington’s Darrick Forrest. He’s allowed 10 receptions on 18 targets en route to 15 combined tackles. He’s playing in place of injured starting strong safety Kamren Curl. The unknown, untested Forrest might be attracting the attention of opposing offenses.
Forrest is sixth on the Footballguys leaderboard of safeties; however, Curl is expected back in the next week or two. Forrest can be tossed back into the wild upon Curl’s return.
Diamond in the Deep Rough
The safety fifth in fantasy points is San Francisco’s Talanoa Hufanga. The 49er has ten tackles in run defense, second only to Owens. He faced the Bears in a midwestern monsoon and then hosted the Seahawks. Two of the league’s weakest pass offenses afforded Hufanga numerous opportunities to cheat up toward the line of scrimmage. He’s highly unlikely to maintain his pace of 8.5 tackles per game once Jimmie Ward returns from the injured-reserve list. Ward is a solid run defender, unlike his replacement, Tashaun Gipson, and will work more interchangeably with Hufanga in the 49ers’ secondary.
Minnesota’s Harrison Smith is third among fantasy safeties on the strength of 20 tackles and an interception. Like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Harrison Smith is a household name, merely confirming his status as a weekly starter in all IDP formats.
Jonathan Owens is the player among these four surprise names enjoying the underlying conditions to sustain fantasy value through the season. He is on pace for an impossible 212.5 tackles this season. He needs to sustain only half his current rate to hold a place in weekly lineups.
Panning for IDP Gold
Marcus Williams, Talanoa Hufanga, and Darrick Forrest have been fun to watch through two weeks, but their days of fantasy utility are numbered. Safety is a highly fungible position in this game of spreadsheets. Footballguy Kyle Bellefeuil offers several names off the waiver wire who might be had for free while leagues bid up Williams, Hufanga, and Forrest.
Footballguys writers Darin Tietgen and Evan Ronda are both on Tampa Bay’s Mike Edwards, the sixteenth highest scoring fantasy safety through two weeks. The Bucs are deploying Edwards at all three levels, bringing him closer to the ball and increasing his odds of productivity. Fantasy gamers have slept on Edwards because he doesn’t have the name recognition of his teammates Antoine Winfield and Logan Ryan.
Footballguys provides an unmatched breadth of resources, depth charts, rankings, and projections that give fantasy gamers the names they need. Reading the Defense explores how evolving defensive schemes and changing player roles inform recommendations and projections. Analysis in this column will equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Contact your writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter to suggest topics that interest you.