THE QB1
Josh Allen, BUF
AVOID AT ADP
Allen isn’t the QB1 because he’s a lock to finish #1 among fantasy quarterbacks. He’s #1 because he’s unlikely to fall out of the top 3-5 in any scenario. With all of the upside on the board later on, it’s just not advisable to be the one to break the seal at quarterback unless you are picking #1 in a Superflex league. Even if your league lets Allen fall to the fifth round, that means they will let every quarterback fall farther than ADP.
QB1 OVERALL IN RANGE OF OUTCOMES
Justin Herbert, LAC
Kyler Murray, ARI
Lamar Jackson, BAL
Jalen Hurts, PHI
Trey Lance, SF
AVOID AT ADP: Herbert, Jackson
TARGET AT ADP: Murray, Hurts, Lance
This group of quarterbacks is your list of players who could be #1 in a typical scoring system. Herbert is the #2 quarterback to go in most drafts. Like Allen, you are drafting him more for his ceiling than his floor, and he shouldn’t be drafted at ADP unless you are picking early in the first in a Superflex league. Murray should have to pass a ton this year, and hopefully, he’ll run more than he did last year, but durability looms as an obstacle to him hitting his ceiling. Likewise, with Jackson, durability holds us back from fully buying in, along with the offense missing the deep threat to make life easier for Jackson and the running game. Hurts is an exciting pick this year in an improved pass offense, and Lance is the first running quarterback to pilot a Kyle Shanahan offense since Robert Griffin III III. Griffin was the #1 fantasy quarterback in his rookie year with a no-name group of skill position players.
SOLID QB1
Patrick Mahomes II, KC
Tom Brady, TB
Russell Wilson, DEN
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Joe Burrow, CIN
Kirk Cousins, MIN
Matthew Stafford, LAR
AVOID AT ADP: Mahomes
TARGET AT ADP: Brady, Rodgers, Cousins
This group is full of more than suitable QB1s for a fantasy team (notice we are up to 13, which means there’s more than enough to go around in a 12-team league), but they lack the rushing+passing upside to contend for #1 overall quarterback honors. Mahomes is still going in the Top 5 and often well ahead of the next tier, which isn’t warranted in his first year without Tyreek Hill. Tom Brady could hit the age wall, and his offensive line is ailing. But he was never being drafted where his results from last year merited. Aaron Rodgers has been fine without Davante Adams in the past. Expect him to be fine this year. Kirk Cousins will be in a better (potentially much better) offense than last year. Those three are the best values at ADP, but Wilson, Burrow, and Stafford could also work. Wilson could explode on a team that’s not dedicated to holding him back, Burrow will have an improved offensive line, and Stafford will be a value if his elbow doesn’t bother him.