Prop Talk Week 12

Photo: USA Today Sports

Tool Update

We are working on a tool that will compare all props to Footballguys projections. This will take some of the narrative out of the prop evaluation, but would help determine which prop to take. This has taken much longer than anticipated to build, so we likely will be with this written version for the next few weeks.

Week 12 Plays

Kyle Allen Over 217.5 Passing Yards

Kyle Allen is more than capable of throwing the ball as evidenced by his 2019 time as a starter in Carolina. In 2019, Allen threw for 250 or more in 8 of his 13 games that season. The problem for Allen ended up being turnovers as he threw 16 interceptions that season. This week, Allen is in a favorable matchup to top 217.5 yards as he is a significant underdog that is likely going to have the Texans working from behind the entire game, but also the matchup is a favorable one as the Dolphins have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. The Dolphins have just four interceptions on the season, so if Allen can prevent turnovers, he should be able to do enough this week to get above 217.5.

ROADMAP

Jeff Wilson Jr. Over 100.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

The Dolphins are turning to Jeff Wilson this week and away from their committee approach as Raheem Mostert is out this week and the only other running backs on the roster are career backups Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin. In the Dolphins last game, Wilson looked unbelievable when he was reunited back with Mike McDaniel as Wilson had 143 total yards and had 119 yards rushing on just 17 carries. This week, the Dolphins get to take on the Texans who have the worst run defense in the NFL this season. Every team that the Texans have faced this season has had their running backs go for 130 or more rushing+receiving yards.

David Montgomery Over 2.5 Receptions

David Montgomery is not a particularly great running back, but is coming off of his best game this season where he had 121 total yards and a touchdown. While it remains to be seen how the injury to Justin Fields will impact Montgomery, Trevor Siemian has a history of throwing to the running back position and this could open up a prime opportunity for Montgomery this week. Last season, running backs had 3 or more receptions in every game that Trevor Siemian played, and with the lack of receiving options in Chicago as Chase Claypool has yet to make an impact in Chicago, Siemian could look early and often to Montgomery out of the backfield.

Tyler Boyd Under 53.5 Receiving Yards

The Bengals have been a strange team without JaMarr Chase. In the three games without Chase, they finally got something going last week as Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow carried the offense as Higgins had 148 yards receiving as the Bengals won the game 37-30. What’s interesting here is the lack of success that Tyler Boyd has had in Cincinnati. Boyd had just 2 catches of the 7 targets that he saw last week, and has now failed to top 50-yards in each of his three games without Chase. This week, Boyd will have to face Roger McReary who has been one of the top slot corners in the NFL, so the Bengals may need to once again go through Higgins to take advantage of Tennessee’s weak outside corners.

DK Metcalf Over 65.5 Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf is in a fantastic position this week to have a big game. Metcalf has struggled as of late as he has failed to top 65.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, but that should get rectified this week. The Raiders who are already one of the worst secondaries in football as they allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks are without Nate Hobbs which means that Metcalf will see a lot of undrafted rookie Sam Webb who has struggled in his limited playing time this season. Whoever the Raiders match up against Metcalf will be in a significant size disadvantage as they will be giving up 4-5 inches and 30-40 pounds. Courtland Sutton is a very similar receiver to Metcalf and Sutton had 5 receptions for 80 yards this week, you could very easily argue that Metcalf is the better version of Sutton.