We have finally made it to NFL draft week! The rumors have been swirling for the past month and this week promises to bring us even more chaos. This draft has fewer consensus picks from experts than we are used to, and placing any type of bet on the draft is the true definition of a wager. However, there are some prop bets out there that you should pounce on before Thursday night's draft.
(Note: All odds come from DraftKings on Tuesday, April 26)
No. 1 Overall 2022 NFL Draft Pick
- Travon Walker -190
- Aidan Hutchinson +200
- Ikem Ekwonu +500
- Evan Neal +2500
- Kayvon Thibodeaux +5000
The first pick in the NFL draft will come down to Trent Baalke. That should make anyone nervous. We have seen a drastic shift in Las Vegas on this pick, with Travon Walker vaulting into the lead and becoming the favorite on Monday. According to NFL sources, the Jacksonville Jaguar front office seems to be split on the pick. Trent Baalke is enamored by Georgia standout Travon Walker while the rest of the front office prefers Michigan standout Aidan Hutchinson. Even with the news this week about Walker, I expect Hutchinson to be the pick here, and now you can get him at better odds. Hutchinson's agent has said that no one has heard anything, which could be a smokescreen but could be true with the lack of leaks. The chance to pair Josh Allen with Hutchinson feels too good to pass up here with the first pick in the draft.
Pick: Aidan Hutchinson +200
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Total Quarterbacks in the First Round of the 2022 NFL Draft
- Over 2.5 -250
- Under 2.5 +190
The last time there weren't three or more quarterbacks taken in the NFL draft was in 2015. That year we saw Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota get drafted with the first two picks, then didn't see another quarterback drafted till the third round. This year, consensus would tell you that this is a down quarterback class and we could see fewer than three drafted in the first round, but I’m not buying it. There are just way too many teams out there that need a quarterback. Those teams include the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. There are just too many quarterback-needy teams out there for there not to be at least three taken in the first round. The floodgates will open as soon as the first quarterback is taken, and there could be a team looking to move into the end of the first round to secure that coveted 5th-year option for quarterback contracts.
Pick: Over 2.5 -250
Skyy Moore 2022 NFL Draft Position
- Over 35.5 -145
- Under 35.5 +110
This is my favorite bet in the draft. This line was in the late 20s just two weeks ago and has now crept into the mid-30s as of Tuesday morning. Skyy is a talented receiver out of Western Michigan who seems to fit NFL schemes well. He’s a polished route runner and has the speed to take the top of the defense. His speed is what wide receiver needy teams will covet, and that big-play ability will be hard for teams to pass up. With Green Bay, Kansas City, and the Detroit Lions all having a glaring need at the receiver position and having a combined six picks in the latter half of the first and early second rounds, it's hard to imagine Moore slips past pick 35.
Pick: Under 35.5
Alabama WR Jameson Williams 2022 NFL Draft Position
- Under 11.5 -130
- Over 11.5 +130
Jameson Williams is the type of receiver that the NFL will love. Even after his ACL injury in the National Championship Game, he’s been slowly working his way up draft boards, and he could easily find himself in the top ten come Thursday. This line moved up from 14.5 two weeks ago, which should be telling. His speed and 19.9 yards per catch is exactly what teams need at the position, and the Falcons, Jets, and Commanders could all take the plunge on Williams. It’s also not out of the question for a team to use some draft capital to move up and draft the Alabama receiver.
Pick: Under 11.5
Total Pac-12 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
- Under 4.5 -190
- Over 4.5 +150
The Pac-12 historically does not do well in the NFL draft. Here are the number of Pac-12 players drafted in the first round since 2016:
- 2021: 3
- 2020: 3
- 2019: 3
- 2018: 4
- 2017: 6
- 2016: 4
Outside of the 2017 draft, the Pac-12 has been limited to under 4.5 players selected in the first round the past four seasons. Partly to blame is the lack of real talent from the conference, something that should change with Lincoln Riley coming to USC, but that will not help this class. Realistically we are looking at four players drafted this year in the first: WR Drake London, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, CB Trent McDuffie, and LB Devin Lloyd. The only other prospect that could have a shot at the end of the first would be CB Kyler Gordon from Washington, who has been shooting up draft boards. Based on his workouts and measurements, Gordon could easily be drafted at the back end of the first. Betting on the Pac-12 is a risky proposition but give me the over in this scenario.
Pick: Over 4.5 +150
NFL 2022 Draft Parlays
It wouldn't be the NFL draft without betting some parlays! Here are my three favorite parlays for this week:
- Over 2.5 QBs & Over 5.5 Wide Receivers Selected in 1st Round -130
- Malik Willis To Be Selected in Top 10 Picks; Desmond Ridder To Be Selected In 1st Round +175
- GB Packers To Select A Wide Receiver With Both Their First Round Picks +550
Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @Daboys_22 and check out my archive with Footballguys!
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