The Guru and the Godfather: Week 17

John "The Guru" Norton and Gary "The Godfather of IDP" Davenport are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2022 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

Week 17 means one thing in most IDP leagues—Championship Week. As we prepare for the most important and pressure-packed week of the fantasy schedule, the Guru and the Godfather have come together to talk about title game strategy and the players who will decide who brings home the hardware in Week 17.

1. Do you approach Championship Week any differently than another playoff game? If so, how? What's the single best piece of advice you would offer fantasy managers vying for a championship this week?

Guru: I approach all playoff matchups like a one-game season, including the championship round. If I feel I am a favorite in the matchup, I tend to play it safe and make sure I start players with high floors that offer less/no risk of being a bust. If I see myself as an underdog, I will take more chances and gamble on high-upside players and/or matchup-based targets.

My best general advice for the championship round is to be diligent. In this round, no team is too good to lose, and no team is too overmatched to win. No matter how good your team is, don’t get lazy or complacent. Make an honest assessment of your situation (underdog/favorite/evenly matched), study your matchups, and make sure there is no one on waivers that can improve your chances of winning. This is a good tool for checking your IDP matchups.

Godfather: Norton is spot-on about this being a one-week season. But it's also a one-week season unlike any other. Win, and you are champion. Lose, and there will be months of second-guessing and wondering what decision might have swung the game in the other direction.

It can be quite maddening.

There's a balance that must be struck. This week, more than any other, you can't afford a dud performance—so analyzing matchup data becomes more important than ever. But you can't become so wrapped up in matchups analysis that you move too far away from the players who got you this far, to begin with.

Carolina Panthers edge-rusher Brian Burns is the living embodiment of the balancing act this season. This week, Burns faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that ranks dead last in the league in sacks allowed and fantasy points allowed to "True Position" defensive ends. But Burns is also a top-five fantasy option who posted five tackles, a sack, and a DE10 finish against the Buccaneers earlier this season.

Long story short, the farther down my rankings I get, the more likely I am to make a switch based on matchups. If I fashion myself an underdog and need to shoot for maximum upside, that cutoff to get froggy slides up farther still. But every IDP manager has to decide how much risk they can live with. Because the only person who has to deal with the consequences of the decisions you make in Week 17 is you. Don't let yourself be talked into/out of starting your guys. Not by me. Not by Norton. Not by anyone.

We may be knowledgeable. May even be experts. But we are most assuredly not infallible.

2. Whether it's injuries, players resting, or youngsters seeing an increased role, are there any situations that IDP managers should pay particular interest to in Week 17?

Guru: The Steelers' inside linebacker situation is something to look at. Robert Spillane has taken over the lead role in the last two games, putting up good numbers in both games. Meanwhile, Myles Jack and Devin Bush are both getting scraps in terms of playing time.

Anyone that’s not comfortable with their defensive end options needs to take a look at Carl Granderson in New Orleans. He appeared to take over the starting job opposite Cameron Jordan last week, logging 71% of the snaps. Granderson is a high-floor player that makes a lot of tackles for a defensive end. He is not exactly a sack master, but he can get after the quarterback too.

If you need a defensive end with more big play upside. Check out the Colts Dayo Odeyingbo. He is now the third man in the rotation and has three and a half sacks in the last two games. With Yannick Ngakoue at the end of his contract, Odeyingbo is likely to take over as a starter next year.

The Falcons’ linebacker situation is particularly interesting and maybe a little confusing at the moment. Rookie Troy Andersen move ahead of Mykal Walker into the starting role two weeks ago. That part was not unexpected. The confusing part is that Andersen has been rather quiet in the box scores since taking over the job. The Cardinals have been a much better matchup for linebackers since the return of James Conner from injury. Maybe this is the week Andersen breaks out.

Godfather: There has been plenty of clamoring in fantasy circles this week about Week 17 and resting players and unfairness and yada yada yada. The truth is that if the Tennessee Titans could have won a game in the last month, we wouldn't have had to endure said conversation. And in any event, there aren't many postseason ripples I expect to have a real effect on IDP leagues this week. I don't expect to see Derwin James or Joey Bosa of the Chargers play in Week 17, but that has as much to do with injury as rest.

Still, there are some situations at linebacker that could swing some matchups in Week 17. Undrafted rookie Luke Masterson is the last man standing for the reeling Raiders and a high-floor LB3 against the 49ers. Last week marked the second straight game that Robert Spillane played 100 percent of the snaps ahead of a primetime meeting with the rival Ravens.

There are also a couple of situations I'm not interested in messing with if possible. In Washington, David Mayo turned an 88 percent snap share into nine tackles last week, but he's a deep-league dart-throw at best, even in a favorable matchup with the Browns. On the flip side of that matchup. I wouldn't trust any of the Cleveland linebackers with a 39.5-foot pole. Last week. Reggie Ragland led the team in tackles, and less than a month ago, he was on the Raiders practice squad. Trying to hit on a Cleveland linebacker this season is harder than nailing a triple-20 on a dartboard—attached to a truck wheel doing 60.

3. As fantasy managers prepare for Championship Week, which IDPs at each of the three primary positions are going to soar past expectations, pile up points and help propel fantasy managers to a championship?

Guru: J.J. Watt has been a wrecking ball over the last few weeks and is having his best season in several years. He announced this week that he will retire after the season, so this week’s matchup with the Falcons will be the next-to-last game of his career. Watt is the kind of player that will want to go out on top, and Atlanta is a good matchup.

The Broncos look like a team that has given up. They have surrendered 14 sacks over their last two games. Seven of those sacks were recorded by interior linemen. Chris Jones went 4-0-1 in the first meeting back in Week 14, and that was before Denver had thrown in the towel.

Weather will not be a factor this week in Cincinnati, so a matchup between the Bengals and Bills means the air will be filled with footballs. A lot of those balls will be thrown to Stefon Diggs, who will be covered most of the time by Cam Taylor-Britt. It will be a major test for the rookie that should translate to a lot of tackles and maybe even a big play.

When the Packers faced Minnesota in Week 1, Rasul Douglas went 4-0 as a part-time nickel corner. This time around, he is the starter opposite Jaire Alexander. Douglas consistently puts up good tackle totals, but this week, he could be particularly busy against a Vikings offense with a prolific passing attack. Douglas could see a lot of Justin Jefferson. If Alexander draws that duty, I look for Douglas to be matched up with T.J. Hockinson a lot.

C.J. Mosley is an every-week start-and-forget-it player. This week’s matchup with Seattle and a healthy Kenneth Walker makes Mosley a candidate for the LB1 in Week 17. To see the potential, look no further than last week when Nick Bolton piled up 17 combined tackles versus the Seahawks.

The Raiders have moved on from Derek Carr as their quarterback. It’s hard to tell what Las Vegas will look like with Jarrett Stidham under center, but as poorly as Carr has been playing, it can’t be a whole lot worse. Regardless of the quarterback, this offense goes as Josh Jacob goes, and the Raiders will ride that pony. Providing the game remains relatively close, which I believe it will, Fred Warner will become well acquainted with Jacobs in this one.

Godfather: Had Kwity Paye of the Colts not missed a sizable chunk of the season due to injury, we'd be talking about the second-year pro as one of the breakout IDP stars of 2022—Paye has 42 tackles and six sacks in 10 games and ranks among the top-10 defensive linemen in fantasy points per game. Paye should have an opportunity to finish his fantasy campaign on a high note against a Giants team that has given up the fifth-most sacks in the league and the sixth-most fantasy points to defensive ends.

I may not be especially enthusiastic about David Mayo of the Commanders this week, but teammate Jamin Davis is another story. Davis didn't magically become a better linebacker when Cole Holcomb suffered what wound up a season-ending foot injury. But since that happened, Davis' statistical production has spiked in a big way. Davis has at least six solos and eight total tackles in four straight games, and he draws a top-10 matchup for the position Sunday against Cleveland.

Pittsburgh Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick hasn't been terrible this season—he has already tied a career-high with five interceptions and will have the second-best tackle season of his career when the dust settles. But he entered Week 17 ranked outside the top 20 safeties in fantasy points. Fitzpatrick had one of the better games of the season the last time Pittsburgh faced the Ravens, piling up his most total tackles (11) since the season opener, and Baltimore has given up the third-most fantasy points to safeties in 2022.

4. Which big-name IDPs are most likely to come up short, fail to meet expectations, and disappoint fantasy managers at the worst possible time in Week 17?

Guru: I will stop short of suggesting anyone bench De’Vondre Campbell, but be aware that the Vikings have been an inconsistent matchup at best for inside linebackers. Over the last seven weeks, Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano were 1-2 and 3-3, respectively, against the Vikings. Leighton Vander Esch posted three tackles, JaWhaun Bentley went 3-4, C.J. Mosley 3-6, Quincy Williams 2-1, and Jaylon Smith 3-7. The only linebackers to post decent numbers versus Minnesota since Week 9 are Bobby Okereke 6-6, Zaire Franklin 6-4, and Alex Anzalone 6-3. Keep that in mind when considering Campbell or Quay Walker for your championship lineup. By the way, Campbell has just seven combined stops (3-4) with a pick over the last two weeks.

Jordan Hicks has not fallen flat yet, and the Packers are a good matchup since the discovery of A.J. Dillon in their backfield. The issue with Hicks is playing time. He has not been on the field for more than 67% of the snaps in any of the last three games. The Vikings are working rookie Brian Asamoah into the mix. His role has increased steadily over the last month. Even with the reduced role, Hicks is putting up respectable tackle numbers, but the part-time role brings his upside way down.

Jevon Holland and Eric Rowe have given us good numbers at times but don’t expect much from them this week. The best tackle numbers recorded by a safety against New England over the last month was the 4-2 by Vonn Bell last week. Don’t expect Holland or Rowe to make up ground in the big play columns, either. The Patriots rarely throw the ball farther than ten yards down the field, so they have thrown one interception since Week 9. It was to an inside linebacker.

Harrison Smith is not on this list because of the matchup but rather due to his recent lack of production. He missed Week 14 with a sore neck and has not been the same player of the last two games, going 4-0 against the Colts and 2-1 versus the Giants last week. Smith even lost ten snaps to backup Josh Metellus last week.

Godfather: In 2020 and 2021, Trey Hendrickson of the Bengals came up big for IDP managers, logging 27.5 sacks. But the six-year veteran has never been a big tackle producer, making him highly reliant on those sacks for fantasy production. This year, those sacks haven't been there—Hendrickson has just six for the season and none since Week 11. Add a poor pass-rush matchup with the Bills, and you get a rather easy fade for Week 17.

Seattle Seahawks linebacker Cody Barton has been quite the rollercoaster ride for IDP managers this season, but it's been a fun ride of late—Barton has at least nine total tackles in five of the last six games. However, the road could be about to get bumpy—the New York Jets have struggled to run the ball since Breece Hall got hurt, and the Jets rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to linebackers for the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield entered the 2022 season as a top-10 fantasy option on most boards, but thanks largely to injuries, the third-year pro has been one of the bigger IDP disappointments in the secondary this season. But the reality is that he hasn't been especially productive even when healthy, failing to top five solos since Week 5. He's much more name than numbers at this point, heading into a bad fantasy matchup with the Panthers.

5. For fantasy managers in need of a spot-starter or injury replacement, who are some good matchup or "sleeper" IDP plays for Week 17?

Guru: With Jaycee Horn injured, C.J. Henderson becomes the Panthers’ number one corner against a Buccaneers offense that throws a ton of short to intermediate passes. Since their Week 11n bye, six corners have produced at least five solo stops and an assist against Tampa Bay, including one in every game until last week when Marco Wilson was 3-1 with a pair of interceptions.

Nicholas Morrow moved into the lead role at linebacker when Jack Sanborn went down, but Joe Thomas has also been on the field for every snap in the last two games. The Lions have been a decent matchup for linebackers on most weeks, and Thomas has parlayed the volume into a pair of productive outings with double-digit points.

The Bills are a middle-of-the-road matchup for defensive ends but then so were the Patriots when Cameron Sample went 3-3-1 against them last week. Trey Hendrickson is working in a reduced role while he recovers from a wrist injury, so even if Sam Hubbard returns from the calf injury that kept him out last week, Sample is going to have a big role. If Hubbard sits (he was limited on Thursday), Sample could be on the field for over 90% of the snaps as he was last week.

Let me preface this by saying I don’t trust the Browns any further than I can throw the entire city of Cleveland. That said, Tony Fields was 6-4 last week against a Saints offense that has not been a good matchup for linebackers. This week Cleveland gets the Commanders, who have been a plus matchup.

I saved the best for last. If you need a linebacker for this week, Luke Masterson is your guy. He moved into the lead role at middle linebacker when Denzel Perryman was lost to a shoulder injury last week and went 6-4 against the Steelers. If that is not enough, the decision to bench David Carr sends a clear message to the locker room that the team is throwing in the towel. Josh McDaniels is a horrible excuse for a head coach, and morale has to be at rock bottom. So who will be playing hard when Las Vegas hosts the red-hot 49ers this week? Young Luke Masterson, who doesn’t care about anything beyond the opportunity to play in the NFL and hopefully impress someone.

Godfather: I'm 100 percent on board with The Guru on Masterson—and on a lack of faith in the Cleveland linebackers. I can't start any of them. Not in a must-win week.

Frank Clark of the Kansas City Chiefs isn't the fantasy option he once was. His days of 40-plus tackles and double-digit sacks are gonesville. But in recent weeks, Clark has quietly picked it up—he has a sack in two of the past three games, including one in Week 14 when the Chiefs last met the Broncos. That sack was one of a whopping 57 the Broncos have surrendered this season. No team in the league has allowed more.

There was a time when Jaylon Smith appeared to be headed for stardom. However, after falling mostly off the radar altogether, Smith has worked his not only back onto an NFL roster but back into a three-down role for a playoff contender. Smith managed just three solos last week against the Vikings, but he added seven assists and a sack. And as awful as the Colts looked offensively last week, there still isn't a team in the league allowing more fantasy points to linebackers this season.

This last one is admittedly a hunch. Or maybe wishful thinking. Or the always popular combination of both. But veteran safety Adrian Amos of the Packers is just about always good for 3-4 solid IDP outings a season. He logged one just this past week against the Dolphins, amassing 11 total tackles. And another could be coming Sunday at Lambeau in a game against the Minnesota Vikings the Packers absolutely have to win.