The Gut Check No.587: The 2023 Wishlist

Photo: USA Today Sports

Re-draft leagues are almost at their conclusion and dynasty leagues are about to enter the next phase of their never-ending cycle. Since readers ask, I'll share that I'm in seven leagues. I made the playoffs in five. I'm one of the top two seeds in two of them.

One of them is the Footballguys Staff IDP Dynasty League. Matt Bitonti and I have had a rivalry with league implications for the past three years. Two years ago, Bitonti beat me in the semifinals on his way to winning the league crown. Last year, I beat Matt in the championship. This year, we face off in the semifinals. He was the only team to beat my 12-1 squad this year.

Wish me luck, and while you do, I'll share 10 players on my wish list for next year and beyond. This is neither an exhaustive list nor one based on the best potential values. These players intrigue me for a variety of reasons:

• They're already clear fantasy starters or have shown glimpses of becoming one.
• I saw notable skills on film.
• I'm intrigued or inspired by their off-field stories.

Last year's list included Jaylen Waddle, A.J. Dillon, Kenny Moore, Josh Reynolds, and Josh Jacobs...

When Jacobs' contract expires in 2022, he'll be on his way to becoming 25 years old. As long as his nagging injuries are only nagging injuries and not chronic, degenerative, or career-changing issues, Jacobs will hit the market as an experienced back in one of the most demanding forms of the West Coast offense that has struggled to field a quality offensive line and underutilized Jacobs as a receiver.

I"ll continue betting on him because as he gets older, the more likely his value will drop in the eyes of fantasy GMs who look at the year's Jacobs has been in the league and the underwhelming production to high expectations and begin to write him off.

Marshawn Lynch's production tailed off for three consecutive years after a strong rookie season in Buffalo. The Seahawks acquired the 25-year-old Lynch and he delivered four consecutive seasons with 1,400-1,700 yards from scrimmage and 12-17 touchdowns.

Jacobs is a different type of talent than Lynch but he's closer to Lynch's level of talent than his production indicates.

The list also included Najee Harris, Albert Okwuegbunam, Adam Trautman, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Kennedy Brooks, but it's not just about "hit rate," but the weight of the hits. Consider the hits are this year's No.11 WR and No.2 RB among the five startable options, that's a winning hand.

Here we go, and in no particular order...

The Ascending STarter: Khalil Herbert

Herbert led or matched David Montgomery in rushing yards in 7 of the 10 games he played this year, and despite splitting a lot of time with Montgomery, he was fantasy's RB23 this year during that span. I've always seen Herbert as a starter kit for a player in the style of Dalvin Cook. Herbert's hip injury will cost him four weeks, but he should be back for Week 16, which tells you he'll be more than ready for Bears training camp.

Montgomery's contract expires at year's end and while the Bears will surely target another running back if Montgomery doesn't stick around Chicago, I think Herbert is the ascending talent likely to take over the lead role. If he doesn't, I doubt the Bears grab a talent who keeps Herbert at his current value or makes it lower.

Unless...

The Draft Capital Discount (Even if An Early pick): Zach Evans

A back like Evans falls to them in the 2023 NFL Draft. As seems to be the case most years, there is a wealth of talent at the running back position entering the NFL ranks. To be clear, when I say a wealth of talent, I'm not indicating that you're going to see Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, DOnta Foreman, and Samaje Perine.

Oh yeah, you could add Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen, and Chris Carson to the list if factoring out injury. Imagine Foreman if he hadn't torn his Achilles' Tendon...

So no, it's unlikely the 2023 class is remotely along the lines of 2017. Still, Isaiah Pacheco and Zonovan Knight, my No.9 and No.14 pre-draft RBs, respectively, have delivered value this year and show promise to do more. There are usually 10-15 rookie backs with the potential to deliver some form of viable fantasy production as a match-up play, bye-week option, flex, or starter.

Bijan Robinson heads this RB class in the draft media and he's an excellent prospect. In many respects, Robinson reminds me of the best and worst of Saquon Barkley and Reggie Bush. He has some issues to iron out that could limit him to a boom-bust producer on a weekly level. While this may not hurt your esteem of him as a fantasy GM during his first contract, NFL teams prefer reliable decision-makers and may be less enthusiastic by Robinson's second contract if he doesn't refine his game.

In contrast, Zach Evans has that refinement.

What Evans may lack is draft capital. He transferred to Mississippi this year only to split time with freshman Quinshon Judkins in part due to injury and in part Judkins' talent. College runners who spend part of their Saturday careers as understudies but shine even brighter in the NFL are nothing new. Ask Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, Herbert, Rhamondre Stevenson, Dameon Pierce, and dozens of others.

Evans was considered a Top 100 draft pick entering the season in some circles I associate with. We'll see if he drops based on his missed time. The team that gets him will be fortunate.