We finally got to an outcome in the Deshaun Watson suspension saga. 11 games and five million dollars in a settlement, which means there won’t be any appeals. What do we do with this information in fantasy leagues?
Should I draft Deshaun Watson?
First of all, fantasy football is a diversion and is supposed to be fun, so if drafting Watson makes it less fun for you or otherwise the code by which you run your team precludes selecting Watson, don’t draft him. This might not even need to be said. From a cold fantasy analysis standpoint, it isn’t like the potential value of six games of Watson could significantly change your season. He is coming off of a year-plus layoff from football, playing with new teammates in a new offense, and may or may not be affected by the ordeal from an emotional, psychological, and spiritual standpoint, especially with his first game coming in Houston and the rest of his games (Weeks 14-17) in cold weather (at Cincinnati, home vs. Baltimore and New Orleans, then at Washington, which he reportedly wanted to avoid.
However, if your bench size is deep enough that carrying Watson through his suspension won’t incur a large opportunity cost of missed chances to add players on the waiver wire and your strategy is to wait until the late rounds to take your quarterback after the top 12 are gone, leaving you Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Matt Ryan or even Marcus Mariota as your Week 1 starter, then Watson is worth drafting in the late rounds in the QB20-25 range and holding to see what he’s worth in the last third of the season. Our own Adam Harstad posted the math behind the idea that the fantasy football playoff weeks are much more important than the fantasy regular season weeks. The fantasy playoffs is when you’ll have an up-to-speed Watson.
Make sure your league is the type to leave a few starting quarterbacks on the waiver wire throughout the season. Alternatively, draft a third quarterback since Watson won’t help you cover any byes or injuries until December.
What about Superflex leagues?
Watson in a Superflex/2QB league is a bit different because of the increased value of quarterbacks and ability to punt your QB2 pick(s) until the later rounds and try to stack more RB/WR/TE value while others are taking quarterbacks that we wouldn’t start in a 1QB league as early as the 3rd/4th round. He’s more of an 8th-11th round value in that format. He fits well in a QB2 by committee approach, again assuming that bench size decreases the waiver wire opportunity cost of having a spot tied up through the first two-thirds of the season with no hopes of covering injuries or byes or otherwise contributing to your fantasy team.
Will the Browns add Jimmy Garoppolo?
CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones says the team will NOT trade for Garoppolo. He said the league is waiting for the 49ers to release Garoppolo and that then they will consider adding him and have done their homework on him. So he could end up on the Browns roster, but via trade is an unlikely route for that to happen. He added that the team believes in Brissett. Just pulling a number out of the air, a 50% chance of Garoppolo landing there seems optimistic. Still, it should certainly be at least 5-10%, if not more, as the Browns (along with Seattle and the Giants) are one of the teams that will obviously be in on Garoppolo, assuming he is released before the season. However you slice it, that’s not compelling enough to significantly move up any of the Browns' pass-catchers from the level we place them in light of playing two-thirds of the season with Jacoby Brissett in the hopes that Garoppolo will increase the efficiency of the pass offense even if it remains low volume while he’s the starter.
What do we do with the rest of the Browns?
Nick Chubb: Chubb has produced through hell and high water in this offense, and his value might be the best insulated from Brissett starting. He was worth a third-round pick while Watson’s status was uncertain, and he’s still worth that now.
Kareem Hunt: The offense will be less efficient with Brissett, especially the passing game, and that’s the aspect of the offense Hunt participates in more often. His value last year was also somewhat touchdown dependent, another area that will suffer with Brissett. Hunt may not be consistent enough to be startable while Brissett is on the field. He was going as high as the 7th-8th round before Watson’s settlement suspension was announced. Now, he is probably not worth a pick until the 11th-12th or later, after Nyheim Hines and Kenneth Gainwell are off the board. Unless a team loses a starting running back and Hunt is traded into a starting role, he’s not a good pick near previous ADP.
Amari Cooper: Brissett wasn’t good enough to support any consistent wide receiver in his starts last year in Miami, but in 2019 in Indianapolis, his #1 receiver was generally startable whether it was an aging T.Y. Hilton or Zach Pascal pressed into duty because of injuries. Cooper’s 6th-7th round price isn’t too steep for a No. 1 receiver, so if you believed in him before this news, he should probably stay on your target list in the 7th/8th round. Even if you didn’t believe in Cooper at ADP, you should consider him if he falls to the 9th/10th on this news.
David Njoku: Njoku was already a back half of the draft TE2 pick, and he’ll only drop farther on this news. The Browns offense manufactures opportunities for tight ends, so Njoku’s targets could remain high efficiency even with the dropoff to Brissett. The tight end picture after the top 10 is rough, so I’m not going to talk you out of keeping Njoku as part of your plan at tight end. We still don’t know how good he can be as a starter, which he finally is this year, and anyone with a shot at generating fantasy relevance at tight end is worth a pick in the back half of your draft. Njoku still qualifies, as Brissett was reasonably effective at throwing to the tight ends and Mike Gesicki averaged almost 6 catches a game and 60 yards a game when Brissett started in Miami last year.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell: The #2 receiver and slot receiver go from late-round considerations, depending on how deep your league is, to off our radar with the news of Watson’s suspension.