Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Week 16

Arizona Cardinals

There must be a fountain of youth in Arizona. J.J. Watt’s numbers in Week 15 were a flashback to the early part of his career. At 4-1-3 with a forced fumble and a batted pass, he was the fantasy games’ top-producing defensive lineman for the week. This week’s matchup with the Buccaneers is not exactly favorable, but the way Watt has been playing since week eight, he is worthy of a start against anyone.

Atlanta Falcons

We knew it was coming. The Falcons were going to turn their attention to the future at some point. When they announced Desmond Ridder as the starting quarterback well ahead of last week’s game, we knew the time had come for them to turn the page, not just at quarterback but at linebacker as well. Troy Andersen moved past Mykal Walker on the depth chart, logging 45 snaps to Walker’s 13.

Andersen’s numbers were somewhat modest at 5-2, but then the Saints are not exactly a great matchup these days. Unfortunately, neither are the Ravens without Lamar Jackson nor the Cardinals with Trace McSorley under center. That said, Andersen should put up respectable totals against both of those opponents over the next two weeks.

Baltimore Ravens

Kyle Hamilton has arrived in terms of stat sheet production. His 6-1-1 with a pass breakup looks like starters' numbers, especially after he played 97% of the snaps in Week 14. The problem is that he, once again, was back below 60% snap count in Week 15. Granted, there are no bonus points for playing time, and Hamilton has been producing even with limited snaps, but it is hard not to get nervous about linebackers and safeties that are not on the field close to full-time.

Marcus Peters (calf) and Calais Campbell (knee) were both casualties of Week 15, and their status for this week’s game is in question as of Tuesday evening. Brandon Stephens would get the start at corner, while Campbell’s playing time would be absorbed by everyone else in the rotation up front.

Carolina Panthers

C.J. Henderson played four snaps against the Steelers before leaving with an ankle injury. Keith Taylor stepped in and went 6-2 at the position. This week’s matchup with the Lions should help Taylor to another solid outing in the tackle columns, but Detroit does not give up a lot of big plays.

Jeremy Chinn is coming off a career-high eleven solo tackles and the second-highest fantasy point total of his career at 20.25. That will have him in the lineups of nearly every manager that has the option this week. Be aware, however, that the Lions are not a good matchup for safeties. Since week eight, all of the safeties they have faced (starters and backups) have combined for eight tackles and four assists per game on average, with zeros across all the big play columns.

Chicago Bears

When the Bears traded Roquan Smith, Jack Sanborn was their backup plan. There was no backup plan when Sanborn landed on IR this week with an ankle injury. There is a good backup plan for IDP managers, though. Joe Thomas came on to replace Sanborn and was productive, going 3-3-1. Chicago likes to keep both inside linebackers on the field, and Thomas could have some value. But it was Nicholas Morrow who stepped into the lead role, going 9-2 versus the Eagles. He should turn in good numbers again in Week 16 when the Bears face Buffalo.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals could be without Sam Hubbard (calf) and Trey Hendrickson (wrist) for the next few games, but don’t expect a big letdown by the defense. Cameron Sample and Joseph Assai are both good young players that would likely start for a lot of teams. Sample is comparable to Hubbard, capable on all three downs but more of a run defender that can rush the passer than a pure pass rusher. Assai is somewhat of a Hendrickson clone in that he is a pass rusher first but capable of playing early downs as well. Either or both have the potential to put up good numbers this week against the Patriots.

Cam Taylor-Britt posted a disappointing 2-1 versus the Buccaneers. Part of that was due to a shoulder injury ending his day early, but he played well into the second half, so the numbers were not good even before the injury. So what happened? It looked like Tom Brady and the Buccaneers saw Eli Apple as the weak link corner, despite Cincinnati having a pair of rookies at the third level for much of the game. Apple was thrown at often and finished at 5-2 with a pair of pass breakups.

The other rookie on the back end was Daxton Hill, who went 5-3 while replacing an inactive Mike Hilton as the slot/nickel corner.

Cleveland Browns

And that’s why we never trust the Browns’ linebackers. Deion Jones played 97% of the snaps, but you would not know it by looking at the stat sheet. At least he picked up a sack and a pass breakup to supplement his weak 2-1 in the tackle columns. To be fair, the Ravens’ offense was ugly in this game, so his opportunity was relatively limited. Other than the 97% play share, it’s hard to get excited about the numbers or this week’s matchup with the Saints. Jones could be a solid play for us against the Commanders in Week 17, though. Tony Fields (46%) and Jordan Kunaszyk (48%) shared the rest of the linebacker snaps against Baltimore.

John Johnson was having a great game before leaving with a thigh injury. He was replaced by Ronnie Harrison, who would get the start if Johnson is out this week.

Jadaveon Clowney suffered a concussion right before the half and is not practicing early in the week.

Dallas Cowboys

With most players, suffering a stinger would mean missing maybe two or three games. With Leighton Vander Esch, it sends up a big red flag due to his previous, career-threatening neck injury. He is not playing in Week 16, but there was good news late on Monday when it was clarified that this is not a related injury and his neck was not affected.

With Vander Esch likely out for the final two games of the fantasy season, we might be getting a look into the future. Damone Clark had been sharing time with Anthony Barr for the last few weeks. With Vander Esch out, Clark shifted to middle linebacker and went 5-4 on 52 of a possible 63 snaps. There are some, myself included, that believe Clark was drafted to eventually take over for Vander Esch in the middle. A matchup with the Eagles is a good preview. Either Clark or Barr could be worthy starters for us this week. Barr was on the field for over 95% of the snaps last week, going 6-1 on the day.

Dorance Armstrong left Sunday’s game with a knee injury. He returned after going to the locker room but was not on the field much in the second half.

Detroit Lions

James Houston IV is on a role with a sack in four straight games. The guy has been on the field for 63 snaps on the season, and he has five sacks. This is a great story, but the reality is that this streak will not continue for long. There are not many 225-pound defensive ends that we can count on for consistent IDP production, and there is no chance Houston will earn a bigger role.

After going 2-2-2 in his third game back, there is a great chance that Romeo Okwara will see a bigger role going forward. At worst, he should be the starter opposite Aiden Hutchinson next season. At best, he could be the starter opposite Hutchinson next week. Okwara is a proven, three-down player. If he is deemed 100% healthy, expect the Lions to up his playing time as they try to land a playoff spot. The Panthers are not a great matchup, but if Okwara sees his playing time jump, the Bears could be a feast in Week 17.

DeShon Elliot injured his shoulder in the third quarter, and his availability for Week 16 is in doubt. He did not practice on Tuesday. C.J. Moore is the next man up.

Houston Texans

For anyone being stubborn about Jonathan Owens, here is a good reason to move on. M.J. Stewart moved into a time-share with Owens last week. Stewart finished 6-2 on 30 snaps, while Owens was 6-1 on 47. There is nothing wrong with seven combined tackles, and the matchup with Tennessee is strong. But shrinking snap counts are a problem that will eventually catch up with him. Don’t let that happen in the second round of the playoffs.

With Steven Nelson on the shelf, Tremon Smith got the start against the Chiefs. Kansas City found and targeted him early and often, resulting in a huge stat line of 7-4 with a pass breakup and a forced fumble. Smith could make another start this week but don’t expect an encore performance against a Tennessee team that is a much different animal.

The Chiefs are usually a poor matchup for linebackers but not last week. Both Christian Kirksey (9-2-1) and Christian Harris (7-7) put up their best totals of the season. Those numbers would be far less shocking this week against a Titans offense that is a great matchup for linebackers. Derrick Henry has absolutely killed the Texans in their last four meetings. In all four of those games, Henry had at least 211 rushing yards and two scores.

Indianapolis Colts

Too little and too late, but Dayo Odeyingdo finally had that breakout game I was expecting a long time ago. The Colts totaled seven sacks, with Odeyingbo contributing 4-1-2. Put him on your dynasty sleeper list for 2023.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville threw us a curve ball last week when Chad Muma was active but not in the lineup. So is he back on the bench or did they hold him back due to the sore ankle? If Muma’s short stint as a starter was meant to send a message to Devin Lloyd, it was received. Devin Lloyd stepped up his game, finishing 7-2 against the Cowboys.

One day, Rayshawn Jenkins will be telling his grandchildren about the time he went 9-9 with two picks and a game-ending return for a score against Dallas. It was nothing short of impressive but is not a good reason to start him this week against a Jets team that is a mediocre matchup for safeties.

Kansas City Chiefs

Last week I called out the Texans as a poor matchup. Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr confirmed that assessment by going 4-3 and 2-2 with a fumble recovery, respectively. For that guy on Twitter that called me out for projecting Jaylon Smith higher than Bolton, this is why, and no, I have not lost my mind… yet. Matchups matter!

Las Vegas Raiders

Chandler Jones was having an uneventful game right down to the final play when the Patriots decided to make him the answer to a future trivia question. Jones was not an IDP hero because of his tenacious play or physical gift. He was an IDP hero because karma shined on him, and the Patriots had an uncharacteristic brain fart, throwing him the ball for a game-winning score on the last play. It’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s even better to be both. Jones has over 67 fantasy points over the last three games. Can he keep it up for one more versus the Steelers this week? All I can say is the matchup is good.

Los Angeles Chargers

Drue Tranquill cashed in on last week’s matchup, going 7-3-1 with a forced fumble against the Titans. At a glance, the injury to Jonathan Taylor might downgrade this week’s matchup with Indianapolis. A closer look might say otherwise, though. The Colts ran the ball 43 times against the Vikings. Keep Tranquill in your lineup.

Minnesota Vikings

Up to the Vikings’ last two games, Jordan Hicks was consistently playing 85%-95% of the defensive snaps. In the Vikings' last two games, he has fallen short of 70%. This might have more to do with the ankle injury he is nursing than any designed cut in playing time, but it is a concern.

New England Patriots

After back-to-back monster games, Josh Uche crashed back to earth on the stat sheet in Week 15. The numbers didn’t reflect it, but his on-field impact continued versus the Raiders. Uche has a tough schedule to finish out the season with matchups against Cincinnati, Miami, and Buffalo to close out the season. Early in the year, the Bengals were a mouth-watering treat for pass rushers. Over the last several weeks, they have turned that trend completely, allowing no more than two sacks in a game since Week 8.

New Orleans Saints

Pete Werner returned in Week 15, but his pre-injury production did not. His snap count was down a bit from what we were seeing earlier, but the culprit here is probably the injury that has not fully healed. Werner was listed as a non-participant in practice Tuesday due to a hamstring injury. With the Browns and Eagles on the schedule in the next two weeks, either Werner or, if he is out, Kaden Ellis, are in line for strong numbers.

New York Giants

Kayvon Thibodeaux’s rookie season was rolling along quietly until the Giants met the Commanders in Week 13. In that game, he posted a season-best five combined tackles and his second sack of the season. Then came the Week 15 rematch, and Thibodeaux exploded with a T.J. Watt-like 9-3-1, a forced fumble, and a recovery for a score. It was one game, and he still has a lot to prove, but the Giants might have landed their next great edge defender.

Landon Collins was activated and saw a fair amount of action as a linebacker versus the Commanders. He is worth keeping an eye on this week to see if he might be a matchup-based option for Week 17 when the Giants face the Colts.

New York Jets

C.J. Mosley had a slow day at the office against the Lions, but there is nothing to see here. Mosley has been off the field for a total of nine defensive snaps all season. With the Jaguars and Seahawks on the schedule for the next two weeks, he should be just fine.

Philadelphia Eagles

Last week I wrote about Josh Sweat having a good matchup but pointed out how the Eagles’ multi-player rotation at defensive end makes it hard for any of their edge defenders to put up good tackle numbers. Right on cue, Sweat pops off with his best game of the year, posting 5-3-2. Not so coincidentally, his 75% snap share in that game was his biggest piece of the pie in any game this season. Hopefully, the coaching staff will figure out how that works and keep him on the field more going forward. Before Week 15, Sweat had not played 60% of the snaps in any game since Week 6.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are hard to figure out. From Week 10 to Week 14, Devin Bush led the inside linebacker position in snaps logging at least 84% in four of five games. In Week 15, Myles Jack was inactive, so Bush played 25 snaps (54%), and Robert Spillane played every down. Jack returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday, so he should be back in action this week. Good luck figuring out what that means in fantasy terms.

Where did Minkah Fitzpatrick go? He was 0-1 with a pass breakup against the Panthers, despite playing every snap as usual. If you survived the near goose egg, he should rebound nicely this week against the Raiders.

Seattle Seahawks

Jordyn Brooks left the Week 15 game with a neck injury, but all appears well. He was a full participant in practice on Tuesday and should be a go versus the Chiefs.

Over a stretch of games from week four to week ten, Cody Barton was relegated to a two-down role. Since that time, he has been on the field for at least 80% of the snaps on four of the last five games and is consistently posting good tackle totals. The Chiefs were an inconsistent at best matchup for linebackers this year until last week when they suddenly morphed into a power running team against Houston. After seeing what Christian Kirksey and Christian Harris did in that matchup, If Kansas City runs that offense again this week, Brooks and Barton are going to have monster games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Antoine Winfield (ankle) tried to go last week but was limited to 18 snaps. That was just enough to kill any value his backup, Keanu Neal, might have had. Between the injuries and poor matchup with the Cardinals and Panthers in the next two games. It’s probably a good idea to avoid all Tampa Bay defensive backs the rest of the way.

Devin White’s zero tackles and seven assists in Week 15 emphasize the direction scoring is going in the NFL. In the game between the Bengals and Buccaneers, the home stat crew awarded 69 total solo tackles and 76 assists. This is becoming more and more common throughout the league. However they choose to do it is fine, but it would be nice to get some consistency from the league.

Tennessee Titans

Monty Rice continued in the lead role at linebacker, logging a season-high 90% of the snaps against the Chargers but still posting a pedestrian 3-3 with a pass breakup. He should put up good numbers against Dallas in Week 17, but don’t count on a bounce back this week. With the loss of Damien Pierce, Houston is arguably the worst possible matchup for linebackers at this point in the game.

That is going to do it for Week 16. Best of luck to you in the semi-finals.

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