Dynasty Fallout to 11 Game Deshaun Watson Suspension

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This Thursday’s agreement between Deshaun Watson and the NFL brings finality to the nearly 18-month-long legal saga: Watson will be suspended 11 games and pay a 5 million dollar fine. The agreed-upon suspension is an increase from the original suspension decision by arbitrator Susan Robinson who gave a decision of a six-game suspension. Watson remains a high-end player, but his functionality is a question during the season.

Obviously, there are serious off-the-field issues involved here.

Our job is to predict how players will perform on the field, given their availability as determined by the league, injury, or ability. And we provide that objective information to you. And you get to decide what to do with the information and where (or even whether) to draft the players.

For our specific redraft reactions, see Sigmund Bloom’s article here.

WATSON’S CAREER IN CONTEXT

For his on-the-field statistics, Watson ranks among the elite of the quarterback position. Among active players, Deshaun Watson ranks first in passing yards per attempt (8.3). Among quarterbacks in the history of the NFL with 1,500 passing attempts, Watson ranks third all-time, behind Otto Graham (9.0) and Sid Luckman (8.4).

From a fantasy football perspective, Watson has also been an elite player. Before missing 2020, Watson had finished as a top-six quarterback in three of his four seasons. The lone season Watson missed that threshold was his injury-shortened rookie season, where Watson started six games before tearing his ACL. At the time of his injury, Watson ranked as QB5 on the season, despite not starting in Week 1. Overall, Watson has been an elite performer on the field.

QUARTERBACKS HISTORY

Before 2021, Watson has been a consistent high-end fantasy producer. Two major factors complicate his fantasy football future: his trade to Cleveland and sitting out a full season.

The history of quarterbacks sitting out a season and returning to fantasy success is surprisingly good.

Andrew Luck finished as QB4 in 2016 before missing the 2017 season with shoulder surgery. Luck returned to his starting job in 2018 and finished as QB4 before retiring prior to the 2019 season.

Michael Vick finished as QB3 in 2006 before missing the 2007 and 2008 seasons after going to prison for dogfighting charges. Vick returned for 2009 as a role player before finishing as QB3 in 2010 and QB11 in 2011. Notably, his QB3 finish in 2010 was in only 12 games. In those 12 games, he finished with 29.2 PPG, which was 5.4 points per game better than Aaron Rodgers, who finished as QB1 overall on the season.

In a different circumstance than Watson’s, Patrick Mahomes II sat out all but one game in his rookie season in 2017 before posting a QB1 overall finish in 2018.

Perhaps the best comp for Watson is Peyton Manning. Manning finished as QB6, QB4, and QB4 from 2008 through 2010 before missing the 2011 season with a neck injury. Manning then signed with Denver after being released by the Colts in 2012. Manning finished QB4 at a 36-year-old in his first season with the Broncos. He followed up that season with a QB1 finish in 2013, his second season with the Broncos, and set the touchdown record.

SUSPENSION SOLUTION

Increasing the suspension from 6 to 11 games may open up a secondary trade window to acquire Watson. However, at this point, the dynasty GMs that have Watson are likely anchored to his cost. This may make any buy-low trades difficult.

If you roster Watson, there are two types of fixes: the quarterback fix and the non-quarterback fix.

QUARTERBACK FIX

Over the 11-week absence, there are three approaches you can take to fill the Watson void in your lineup that do not require you to spend big on the position. With the suspension likely costing Watson the entire fantasy regular season, now is the time to decide your team's direction. If you do not think you can contend with your in house solutions, you need to either acquire help at the position or transition to a 2023 plan.

There are five types of quarterback fixes for the Watson situation.

First, if you have an in-house option Week 1 starter, you can avoid spending on a trade for a starter.

Second, if you do not have an in-house option, you can attempt to stream the position. This may be more possible in formats with fewer than 30+ roster spots. Over the past decade, over 50 quarterbacks have started a game in the NFL each year. Attempting to play those weeks is a short-term solution as you await Watson’s return. If you do this, look for week-to-week solutions between positions. You can stream a quarterback one week and a running back another week. You can use this approach to see what other options open up.

Third, you can trade for a low-level starting quarterback if you do not currently have a good option. Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, or Matt Ryan are fine options for your quarterback position. In the alternative, you could also use the opportunity to speculate on a potential long-term starter. Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield are two quarterbacks with the resume and pedigree to earn long-term starting jobs but do not have the current security. Tom Brady is also an option, but may be difficult to pry from a contending team.