Second Year QBs: The Most Overvalued Assets in Dynasty

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The split between dynasty valuation and redraft valuations is a great place to mine value. As the season gets closer, the market becomes more efficient. The same is true for our redraft rankings. Where players have a big split between their dynasty cost and their redraft cost, there is value to be found. Outside of this year’s rookies, the most overvalued assets of the quarterback position are represented by the top five quarterbacks from the 2022 class.

Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season was a disaster. He came into his rookie season overvalued and was dealt a tough hand by former head coach Urban Meyer. Lawrence can bounce back in 2022, particularly with the benefit of some positive variance. In 2021, Lawrence had 12 passing touchdowns and a 2.0% touchdown rate, well below his expectation. These stats leave him on our quarterbacks likely to benefit from variance in 2022. The team also added help, including Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, while returning Travis Etienne and James Robinson back from injury. For these reasons, the market likes Lawrence to progress, but his season-long QB18 ADP is well below his dynasty valuation of QB11. We are between these costs with a QB16 projection on the season, which would leave Lawrence on a cliff entering year three. Top 10 picks who do not produce a top 12 seasonal finish through two seasons have a less than 50% chance of hitting in the future.

Zach Wilson

Zach Wilson had a rough rookie season, but the team has done a good job adding pieces around him. The Jets could feature a top 10 offensive line (although they're going to miss Mekhi Becton), and their offensive skill players are deep. With Corey Davis and Elijah Moore at wide receiver, the team added Garrett Wilson in the top 10 of the draft. The team also added Breece Hall in the second round of the draft to go with Michael Carter, who had a good rookie season. The team added Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah in free agency before drafting Jeremy Ruckert in the third round at the tight end position. Altogether, outside of Trey Lance, Wilson has the best situation in supporting casts. The redraft market has Wilson at QB25, well below his QB18 valuation in dynasty. We are below the market, projecting Wilson at QB26, but his situation is one where his high-end range of outcomes is higher than any of the quarterbacks on this list in 2022.

Justin Fields

Justin Fields may be in the toughest situation of any of the people on this list. Fields is valued at QB14 in dynasty, but his redraft ADP is QB18. Fields will have an entirely new coaching staff which should benefit him after last year’s experience. However, Fields lost Allen Robinson and will have a limited receiving corps led by Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet in 2022. Fields is without the similar upside case from Wilson because of his limited supporting cast, while being more expensive in dynasty leagues and without front office insulation.