*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18 and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*
Wild Card Weekend Games
- Saturday Slate:
- Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers- Over/Under 42 - Spread 49ers -9.5
- Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Chargers -2.5
- Sunday Slate:
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 43.5 - Spread Bills -13.5
- New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Vikings -3
- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 40.5 - Spread Bengals -9.5
Seahawks at 49ers
- Seahawks:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 15th
- Dropback EPA: 12th
- Rush EPA: 25th
- Points per game: 9th
- Yards per game: 13th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 25th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 23rd
- Rush EPA Allowed: 26th
- Points per game allowed: 25th
- Yards per game allowed: 26th
- Point Differential Ranking: 12th (+6)
- Offensive Rankings
- 49ers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 4th
- Dropback EPA: 3rd
- Rush EPA: 4th
- Points per game: 6th
- Yards per game: 5th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 3rd
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 3rd
- Rush EPA Allowed: 2nd
- Points per game allowed: 1st
- Yards per game allowed: 1st
- Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+173)
- Offensive Rankings
NFL Playoffs are by far my favorite time to play DFS because we have the ability to dive deep not only into the matchups but the identities of each specific team as well. And having conviction not only on specific plays but on how entire games are going to play out is an absolute requirement. The 49ers are 9.5-point home favorites and have the advantage on both sides of the ball. We should expect a relatively easy win here for San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) is a flagship play on this Saturday slate. He was brought in by Kyle Shanahan during the season to help the 49ers win the Super Bowl this year. McCaffrey already ranks fourth in the league in opportunities per game (21.2) and he'll touch the ball as many times as he can handle here in a fantastic matchup. But we're not done on the ground just yet. Elijah Mitchell ($4,700) returned in Week 18 for his first game action since Week 12. On only ten snaps, Mitchell turned 5 carries into 55 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mitchell is a solid player who could benefit from a comfortable 49rs victory, potentially scoring a rushing touchdown late with the game already out of hand.
Brock Purdy ($5,500) is in play as he's the cheapest quarterback on the Saturday slate and has averaged 219.6 passing yards and 2.2 pass touchdowns in his five starts. The matchup is there for Purdy to make it seven games in a row with two or more pass touchdowns. And he and George Kittle ($5,900) have shown incredible chemistry as of late. Kittle has caught a touchdown in four straight games and has seven touchdown receptions total over that span. Deebo Samuel ($5,700) returned in Week 18 and that muddies the water for Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800) who would be a better play in a more competitive game. Aiyuk is a fade. But Samuel is interesting since he's essentially been out of sight and out of mind for over a month. Samuel won't be high owned due to recency bias and that makes him a good tournament play in a solid matchup, especially thanks to his dual-threat ability.
This game script means our main choices on the Seahawks side of the ball are DK Metcalf ($6,200) and Tyler Lockett ($6,000). Ken Walker ($5,900) has a tough matchup against one of the best run defenses in football and the game script doesn't project to be favorable but he must be mentioned since he saw 30 total opportunities last week in a must-win game. Still, the preference here is having exposure to Seattle's passing attack as they play from behind. Geno Smith ($5,600) ranks 12th in passing yards per game (254.3) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8) and leads a Seahawks offense that ranks 14th in EPA/Play, 10th in Success Rate, sixth in PROE, and fifth in EDPF. Having some exposure to both Metcalf and Lockett makes sense if you're making multiple teams but the preference in tournaments should be Lockett since he'll be lower-owned.
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