*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18 and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*
Wild Card Weekend Games
- Saturday Slate:
- Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers- Over/Under 42 - Spread 49ers -9.5
- Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Chargers -2.5
- Sunday Slate:
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 43.5 - Spread Bills -13.5
- New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Vikings -3
- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 40.5 - Spread Bengals -9.5
Seahawks at 49ers
- Seahawks:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 15th
- Dropback EPA: 12th
- Rush EPA: 25th
- Points per game: 9th
- Yards per game: 13th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 25th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 23rd
- Rush EPA Allowed: 26th
- Points per game allowed: 25th
- Yards per game allowed: 26th
- Point Differential Ranking: 12th (+6)
- Offensive Rankings
- 49ers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 4th
- Dropback EPA: 3rd
- Rush EPA: 4th
- Points per game: 6th
- Yards per game: 5th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 3rd
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 3rd
- Rush EPA Allowed: 2nd
- Points per game allowed: 1st
- Yards per game allowed: 1st
- Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+173)
- Offensive Rankings
NFL Playoffs are by far my favorite time to play DFS because we have the ability to dive deep not only into the matchups but the identities of each specific team as well. And having conviction not only on specific plays but on how entire games are going to play out is an absolute requirement. The 49ers are 9.5-point home favorites and have the advantage on both sides of the ball. We should expect a relatively easy win here for San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) is a flagship play on this Saturday slate. He was brought in by Kyle Shanahan during the season to help the 49ers win the Super Bowl this year. McCaffrey already ranks fourth in the league in opportunities per game (21.2) and he'll touch the ball as many times as he can handle here in a fantastic matchup. But we're not done on the ground just yet. Elijah Mitchell ($4,700) returned in Week 18 for his first game action since Week 12. On only ten snaps, Mitchell turned 5 carries into 55 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mitchell is a solid player who could benefit from a comfortable 49rs victory, potentially scoring a rushing touchdown late with the game already out of hand.
Brock Purdy ($5,500) is in play as he's the cheapest quarterback on the Saturday slate and has averaged 219.6 passing yards and 2.2 pass touchdowns in his five starts. The matchup is there for Purdy to make it seven games in a row with two or more pass touchdowns. And he and George Kittle ($5,900) have shown incredible chemistry as of late. Kittle has caught a touchdown in four straight games and has seven touchdown receptions total over that span. Deebo Samuel ($5,700) returned in Week 18 and that muddies the water for Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800) who would be a better play in a more competitive game. Aiyuk is a fade. But Samuel is interesting since he's essentially been out of sight and out of mind for over a month. Samuel won't be high owned due to recency bias and that makes him a good tournament play in a solid matchup, especially thanks to his dual-threat ability.
This game script means our main choices on the Seahawks side of the ball are DK Metcalf ($6,200) and Tyler Lockett ($6,000). Ken Walker ($5,900) has a tough matchup against one of the best run defenses in football and the game script doesn't project to be favorable but he must be mentioned since he saw 30 total opportunities last week in a must-win game. Still, the preference here is having exposure to Seattle's passing attack as they play from behind. Geno Smith ($5,600) ranks 12th in passing yards per game (254.3) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8) and leads a Seahawks offense that ranks 14th in EPA/Play, 10th in Success Rate, sixth in PROE, and fifth in EDPF. Having some exposure to both Metcalf and Lockett makes sense if you're making multiple teams but the preference in tournaments should be Lockett since he'll be lower-owned.
Chargers at Jaguars
- Chargers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 13th
- Dropback EPA: 17th
- Rush EPA: 12th
- Points per game: 13th
- Yards per game: 9th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 16th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 6th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 27th
- Points per game allowed: 21st
- Yards per game allowed: 20th
- Point Differential Ranking: 11th (+7)
- Offensive Rankings
- Jaguars:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 10th
- Dropback EPA: 9th
- Rush EPA: 23rd
- Points per game: 10th
- Yards per game: 10th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 20th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 24th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 18th
- Points per game allowed: 12th
- Yards per game allowed: 24th
- Point Differential Ranking: 7th (+54)
- Offensive Rankings
Vegas essentially has this game as a toss-up and rightfully so. Both offenses are led by exciting young superstar quarterbacks and both teams are similarly matched. A difference could end up being the Chargers 6th ranked defense in Dropback EPA against Trevor Lawrence ($5,700) compared to Justin Herbert ($6,600), who should be able to do whatever he wants against the Jaguars defense. Either way, the Over/Under is 5.5-points higher in this game so we definitely want the majority of our Saturday slate plays coming from this one.
Austin Ekeler ($8,100) is a no-brainer. The matchup is fantastic and he ranked ninth in the regular season in opportunities per game (19.8). Ekeler caught 107 passes and scored 18 touchdowns this year. Get him in your lineup. Meanwhile, Mike Williams ($6,100) suffered a back injury and as of Thursday, still hadn't practiced this week. He's listed as questionable and his status truly appears up in the air. If he plays on Saturday he'll be a tournament play since most will shy away. But either way, Keenan Allen ($7,000) is set up beautifully here. Over his past six games, Allen is averaging 9.7 targets and 89 yards. He's coming off of a two-touchdown game in Week 18. If Williams is out, Josh Palmer ($5,300) and Gerald Everett ($3,800) all of a sudden become very interesting. Mainly Palmer who played over 90% of the offensive snaps in all four games Williams missed this season. But here is the true tournament play: Donald Parham ($2,700). Parham missed a large portion of the season due to injury but returned in Week 15 and his playing time increased in four straight games to close out the regular season. He provides salary relief and touchdown upside as his size could be utilized in the red zone, especially if Williams is unable to give it a go.
On the Jaguars side, Travis Etienne ($6,000) ranks 23rd in opportunities per game (16) and has a favorable matchup against a vulnerable Chargers run defense. It's much easier to attack Los Angeles on the ground and look for Doug Pederson to do his best to do just that with Etienne. And in the passing game, it's likely at least one of Lawrence's pass catchers will end up being in the optimal lineup. Christian Kirk ($5,900), Zay Jones ($4,300), and Evan Engram ($4,200) all caught 73 or more passes this season and all are in play. The preference should be Engram who will be Lawrence's best friend underneath on Saturday as he tries to figure out the Chargers tough coverage schemes.
Dolphins at Bills
- Dolphins:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 7th
- Dropback EPA: 8th
- Rush EPA: 13th
- Points per game: 11th
- Yards per game: 6th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 23rd
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 29th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 4th
- Points per game allowed: 24th
- Yards per game allowed: 18th
- Point Differential Ranking: 14th (-2)
- Offensive Rankings
- Bills:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 2nd
- Dropback EPA: 2nd
- Rush EPA: 9th
- Points per game: 2nd
- Yards per game: 2nd
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 10th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 18th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 3rd
- Points per game allowed: 2nd
- Yards per game allowed: 6th
- Point Differential Ranking: 2md (+169)
- Offensive Rankings
With Tua Tagovailoa out and Teddy Bridgewater dealing with an injury, Skylar Thompson ($4,800) will get the start for the Dolphins. Thompson threw only one touchdown compared to three interceptions on 105 pass attempts this season. Miami is in big trouble. The Bills are 13.5-point home favorites and their offense has a favorable matchup against an okay-at-best Dolphins defense.
Josh Allen ($7,900) is the best play on the entire slate. He threw for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns and ran for 762 yards and 7 touchdowns this season. The dual-threat Allen should pour on the points with his buddy Stefon Diggs ($7,700). Diggs ranked seventh in targets per game (9.6), seventh in receptions per game (6.7), and fifth in receiving yards per game (88.3) across the entire league. Gabe Davis ($4,900) is a boom-or-bust play that runs all the routes and plays almost every snap. This is a favorable environment for Davis where he could finally pay off. Dawson Knox ($4,000) has caught a touchdown in four straight games and is so affordably priced it will be tough not to stack him with Allen on this slate. Isaiah McKenzie ($3,400) appears to be an avoid as he's banged up and now sharing time with Cole Beasley ($3,000). And on the ground, James Cook ($4,800) is cheaper than Devin Singletary ($5,500) despite out snapping Singletary for the first time all season last week in a game the Bills needed to win. Cook saw 11 opportunities in that game compared to Singletary's eight chances. Cook is the preferred play in this backfield.
The poor quarterback play must be taken into consideration when looking at Dolphins players. Still, Tyreek Hill ($7,900) ranked second in receiving yards per game (105.4) and is the preferred play over Jaylen Waddle ($6,400). Waddle has been limited in practice this week as he's dealing with an ankle injury. The best play on Miami is actually looking like Jeff Wilson ($5,400) as Raheem Mostert ($5,800) is dealing with a fractured thumb and hasn't practiced yet this week. If Mostert is out or limited, Wilson could see 20+ touches in this game.
Giants at Vikings
- Giants:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 12th
- Dropback EPA: 12th
- Rush EPA: 15th
- Points per game: 15th
- Yards per game: 18th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 24th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 21st
- Rush EPA Allowed: 24th
- Points per game allowed: 17th
- Yards per game allowed: 25th
- Point Differential Ranking: 16th (-6)
- Offensive Rankings
- Vikings:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 14th
- Dropback EPA: 9th
- Rush EPA: 28th
- Points per game: 8th
- Yards per game: 7th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 22nd
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 25th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 14th
- Points per game allowed: 28th
- Yards per game allowed: 31st
- Point Differential Ranking: 15th (-3)
- Offensive Rankings
This game has serious shootout potential and Vegas knows it. The 48.5 Over/Under is the highest of the weekend. These two teams just recently played in Week 16 and they combined for 51 points as the Vikings won a close one 27-24. Both offenses are in the top half of the league and both defenses are in the bottom half. There should be plenty of fantasy goodness coming from this one.
On the Giants side, it all starts with Saquon Barkley ($7,900). Barkley ranks third in the entire league in opportunities per game (23.2) and turned 24 opportunities into 133 total yards and a touchdown in that Week 16 matchup against the Vikings poor defense. But Daniel Jones ($5,600) is absolutely in play with this surprisingly low price tag after an impressive season in which he finished ranked 11th at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (19.1). Jones' dual-threat skillset was put on full display this season by head coach Brian Daboll as Jones ran for 708 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground. But look for Jones to find success through the air in this favorable matchup as well. As for which pass-catcher(s) to play, your guess is as good as mine. Here are the routes run in the Giants' last competitive game of the season (Week 17): Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100) 28, Darius Slayton ($4,200) 28, Richie James ($3,900) 25, and Daniel Bellinger ($3,000) 26. Hodgins is the preferred play as he has shown recent chemistry with Jones and caught 8 of 12 passes for 89 yards and 1 touchdown in that Week 16 matchup against the Vikings.
For Minnesota, Kirk Cousins ($5,900) has had a strong season and he gets to play at home in a favorable matchup. He threw for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Giants just a few weeks ago. Justin Jefferson ($8,600) is a must-play so it makes sense to stack Cousins and Jefferson together. Forget the poor way Jefferson's season ended. Throw it out of your mind altogether. Don't let recency bias hurt your bank account this weekend. Jefferson had an incredible season, catching 128 passes for 1,809 yards and 8 touchdowns, and will feast in this favorable matchup. T.J. Hockenson ($5,100) tied Jefferson for a team-high 16 targets the last time these two teams played and actually led the team in receptions (13) and receiving touchdowns (2). He's a solid play. Favorable fantasy environments like this boost the value of secondary and tertiary passing weapons so don't sleep on K.J. Osborn ($4,600) and Adam Thielen ($4,500). From a tournament perspective. it's a good thing neither receiver had a good game the last time these two teams played. Both will be very low-owned. As for Dalvin Cook ($7,100), he's not a priority play since Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, and Stefon Diggs are much better plays than him at high salaries. Look elsewhere.
Ravens at Bengals
- Ravens:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 18th
- Dropback EPA: 23rd
- Rush EPA: 2nd
- Points per game: 19th
- Yards per game: 16th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 12th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 15th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 10th
- Points per game allowed: 3rd
- Yards per game allowed: 9th
- Point Differential Ranking: 8th (+35)
- Offensive Rankings
- Bengals:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 5th
- Dropback EPA: 4th
- Rush EPA: 17th
- Points per game: 7th
- Yards per game: 8th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 1st
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 2nd
- Rush EPA Allowed: 6th
- Points per game allowed: 6th
- Yards per game allowed: 16th
- Point Differential Ranking: 6th (+96)
- Offensive Rankings
This one is fascinating. Without Lamar Jackson, the Bengals are now 9.5-point home favorites and certainly should win this game. But how much fantasy goodness should we expect? On one hand, the Ravens defense is one of the best units in football. On the other hand. Joe Burrow ($6,900) and the Bengals are playing with a chip on their shoulder after the NFL did them no favors post-cancellation of the Bills game. Give me angry Burrow all day despite the tough matchup. Burrow has been incredible this season. He ranks fifth in passing yards per game (284) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and leads a Bengals offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play, sixth in Success Rate, second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). He's a fun tournament play especially when you stack him with JaMarr Chase ($8,100). Chase ranks second in the league in targets per game (11) and has seen target totals of 15, 13, 11, and 13 over his past four games. Burrow will once again funnel targets toward his main man on Sunday night. Tee Higgins ($6,200), Tyler Boyd ($4,000), and Hayden Hurst ($3,100) are all in play as secondary stack options with Burrow as well. Higgins is the preferred play since his ceiling is just as high as Chase's and he's priced much more affordably. Joe Mixon ($6,800) is in play as he ranks sixth in opportunities per game (20.7) and 11th in total yards per game (91.3). But he's not a preferred play in this one.
For the Ravens, Tyler Huntley ($5,000) is in line to start. Huntley has thrown just two touchdowns compared to three interceptions on 112 pass attempts this season. This isn't the matchup for Huntley to find success through the air, minimizing the value of playing any Ravens pass-catcher, including Mark Andrews ($5,200). Yet Andrews remains in play since he's a legitimate threat to see double-digit targets here just like he did against the Bengals in Week 5 when he caught 8 of 10 targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown. J.K. Dobbins ($5,700) was rested in Week 18 and should be ready to roll in this one. Expect Dobbins to see 15+ touches but the problem is the matchup is tough and Dobbins rarely catches passes. The preferred strategy is to completely fade the Ravens.
Key Injuries
- Tua Tagovailoa OUT - Upgrade Bills D/ST
- Lamar Jackson OUT - Upgrade Bengals D/ST
- Mike Williams Questionable/Game Time Decision - Upgrade Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett, and Donald Parham
- Raheem Mostert has a fractured thumb - Upgrade Jeff Wilson
- Jamal Agnew Questionable
- DeeJay Dallas Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Keenan Allen
- Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Dawson Knox
- Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and one of T.J. Hockenson, K.J. Osborn, or Adam Thielen
- Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase and one of Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, or Hayden Hurst