Cracking DraftKings Week 18

Favorite Games

• Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 39.5
• New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 43.5
• Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 41.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• 49ers at home vs. the Cardinals - Implied Team Total 26.75
• Eagles at home vs. the Giants - Implied Team Total 28.75
• Cowboys on the road against the Commanders - Implied Team Total 23.75
• Steelers at home vs. the Browns - Implied Team Total 21.5
• Broncos at home vs. the Chargers - Implied Team Total 21.25
• Saints at home vs. the Panthers - Implied Team Total 22.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

The 49ers are motivated and playing against a Cardinals defense that could be packing it in as they start to think about the offseason. Purdy has thrown two touchdown passes in every start and leads a 49ers offense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play and fourth in Success Rate. He's just $5,700 and is playing at home.

If the Ravens lose to the Chargers in the early window the Chargers won't have anything to play for. This is why the Broncos are three-point home favorites. If that happens, Russell Wilson will have an easier matchup and the Broncos should be motivated to finish their tumultuous 2022 season on a high note. Wilson has his weapons in Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy healthy and Albert Okwuegbunam is finally and rightfully back on the field as well.

Running Backs

Over his past three games, Cam Akers has averaged 20.3 opportunities (would rank seventh if over the full season), 126.7 total yards (would rank first if over the full season), and 1 touchdown (would rank second if over the full season). He's been on a tear and now gets to attack a Seahawks defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Rush EPA Allowed.

I got this one from a tweet by Hayden Winks from our good friends over at Underdog Fantasy: Ken Walker has averaged 98 total yards and 0.9 total touchdowns in his ten healthy games as the lead running back this season. He's been very impressive as a rookie and now gets to attack a Rams defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed, 21st in Rush EPA Allowed, and 26th in Success Rate.

The Steelers will be plenty motivated as they have a chance to make the playoffs if they win and a few other things break their way. Look for them to feed Najee Harris, who ranks 12th in opportunities per game (18.8) against a terrible Brown run defense that ranks 29th in Rush EPA Allowed. Harris is shockingly priced at just $6,100 and is playing at home.

The Bengals did the right thing on Monday night and then got the raw end of the playoffs deal decided by the league. They'll be highly motivated to beat the Ravens so they're guaranteed to have a home playoff game in the Wild Card Round. Joe Mixon ranks sixth in opportunities per game (20.7) and 11th in total yards per game (91.3).

Wide Receivers

Joe Flacco is back in at quarterback for the Jets and Garrett Wilson and Flacco had a great connection to begin the season. Wilson is a solid cash play priced at just $5,800 in a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 21st in Success Rate.

D.J. Moore is thriving with Sam Darnold at the helm. Moore has caught a touchdown in three straight games and has caught at least five passes for 73+ yards in all three as well. This is a tough game to figure out as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention but sometimes those are the games that end up shooting out. Moore is a solid cash play priced at just $6,100 playing against a Saints defense that is middle of the pack (15th) in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Rashid Shaheed ran a route on 90% of dropbacks and caught all six of his targets for 79 yards last week. He's a full-time wide receiver and is priced way too low at just $4,200. He has a favorable matchup at home against a secondary that just made Tom Brady look like his old self last week.

Justin Jefferson is a tough one this week. The Vikings aren't playing for much and head coach Kevin OConnell has hinted the starters aren't going to play the entire game. Yet, Justin Jefferson has a chance to set the single-season receiving yardage record and could go nuclear in just a half against an awful Bears defense that ranks dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed.

The Eagles have to win to lock up the one seed, the first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They'll be highly motivated. On the other side, the Giants have nothing to play for and likely would play the Eagles in the Divisional Round of the playoffs should they win their first playoff game so they're incentivized to not try hard in multiple ways here. It sets up very well for the Eagles passing offense who get to attack a Giants defense that only ranked 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed while playing at full strength. Enter DeVonta Smith, who has caught 17 of 25 targets for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past two weeks.

Jakobi Meyers is listed as questionable so his status must be monitored but he's expected the play and the Patriots are highly motivated as they can make the postseason with a win here against the Bills. Meyers is priced at just $5,100 yet ran a route on 95% of dropbacks and caught 6 of 9 targets for 49 yards and a touchdown last week. Look for Mac Jones to prioritize his #1 receiver as he'll have to throw if the Patriots want to have any chance to win this game. Surprisingly, the matchup isn't terrible as the Bills defense only ranks 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

If the Ravens lose to the Chargers in the early window the Chargers won't have anything to play for. This is why the Broncos are three-point home favorites. If that happens, Russell Wilson will have an easier matchup and the Broncos should be motivated to finish their tumultuous 2022 season on a high note. Enter Jerry Jeudy, who over the past four games has seen eight or more targets and caught six or more passes in every contest.

The Steelers will be plenty motivated as they have a chance to make the playoffs if they win and a few other things break their way. On the other side, the Browns are eliminated and we don't know how hard they're going to play in this one. Diontae Johnson is affordably priced and has seen seven or more targets in six straight games.

Tight Ends

The Eagles have to win to lock up the one seed, the first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They'll be highly motivated. On the other side, the Giants have nothing to play for and likely would play the Eagles in the Divisional Round of the playoffs should they win their first playoff game so they're incentivized to not try hard in multiple ways here. It sets up very well for the Eagles passing offense who get to attack a Giants defense that only ranked 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed while playing at full strength. Enter Dallas Goedert, who has played 94% and 96% of the offensive snaps over his past two games since returning from injury. His matchup is nice against a Giants defense that allowed the tenth most fantasy points to the tight end position this season.

The Cowboys are currently the fifth seed but have a chance to improve that with a win against the Commanders. They'll be motivated, which is something we can't say for Washington as they were just eliminated from playoff contention last week. Dalton Schultz is a solid play who is coming off of a two-touchdown performance in which he caught 7 of 10 targets for 56 yards.

Tyler Conklin ran a route on 62% of dropbacks and caught all 6 of his targets for 80 yards last week. He produced early in the season with Joe Flacco, who will be the quarterback on Sunday and he has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 21st in Success Rate.

Team Defenses

The Jets are priced at just $2,600 and they'll be facing off against Skylar Thompson this week. Thompson has only thrown one touchdown compared to three interceptions on the season.

The Steelers will be plenty motivated as they have a chance to make the playoffs if they win and a few other things break their way. Look for the Steelers defense to play hungry at home against a struggling Deshaun Watson. Watson has only thrown more than one touchdown in one of his five starts this year.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

The Bengals did the right thing on Monday night and then got the raw end of the playoffs deal decided by the league. They'll be highly motivated to beat the Ravens so they're guaranteed to have a home playoff game in the Wild Card Round. This is a reminder Joe Burrow has been incredible this season. He ranks fifth in passing yards per game (284) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and leads a Bengals offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play, sixth in Success Rate, second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF).

The Bills can eliminate the Patriots from the playoffs with a win and will be playing this one at home for their teammate Damar Hamlin. Josh Allen ranks ninth in passing yards per game (268.6) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) and leads a Bills offense that ranks second in EPA/Play, second in Success Rate, third in PROE, and fourth in EDPF.

The Seahawks have to beat the Rams and then hope the Lions defeat the Packers on Sunday Night Football. If both of those occur, Seattle is in the playoffs. They'll be highly motivated at home against a Rams defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed, 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 26th in Success Rate. Let's not forget the season Geno Smith has had. Smith ranks 12th in passing yards per game (254.3) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8) and leads a Seahawks offense that ranks 14th in EPA/Play, 10th in Success Rate, sixth in PROE, and fifth in EDPF.

The Cowboys are currently the fifth seed but have a chance to improve that with a win against the Commanders. They'll be motivated, which is something we can't say for Washington as they were just eliminated from playoff contention last week. Dak Prescott ranks 13th in passing yards per game (248.4) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2) and leads a Cowboys offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play and fourth in Success Rate.

Running Backs