Comp Picks is a season-long, weekly series that looks at the incoming rookie class from all angles, tying everything together with an NFL player comparison (or a combination of players) to contextualize upside and risk.
Background
Junior, 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds
Unlike some of his classmates, Quentin Johnston was not extraordinarily productive in high school. Still, as a 2020 recruit, he ranked 14th among receivers and 71st overall, earning a four-star rating and offers from major programs such as Texas and Oklahoma. Johnston totaled just 95 receiving yards in high school but achieved his high recruiting pedigree with supreme athleticism. He was a state medalist in the high jump and a massive dunker on the basketball court. He transitioned his athleticism to the football field as a junior in high school, committing to TCU less than a year before he was due to report for his first year. Johnston made an immediate impact as a deep threat during the 2020 season, catching 22 passes for 487 yards, averaging over 22 yards per reception, and finding the end zone four total times. He followed that up with growth in his second year before hitting his new peak in 2022. Through seven games, Johnston has 38 receptions for 574 yards and three touchdowns, with 80% of the yards, 68% of the receptions, and 100% of the touchdowns coming after Week 4.
Scouting Report
Johnston is a unique player that has yet to reach his ceiling. His strengths lie in attacking the football in the air and athleticism after the catch, a combination that has proven to be lethal at the NFL level. He's an explosive playmaker who can play above the rim on deep balls. Early in his collegiate career, Johnston was one-dimensional, mostly running go and post routes and utilizing his speed to get behind defenses. He was raw as a route runner, and his release packages were too predictable, causing trouble when trying to win short and intermediate routes. Johnston improved drastically as a true junior and just his fifth year playing organized football. His hip and ankle flexibility each give him more wiggle on releases and within his routes. While his first two years showed the deep-ball ability, 2022 shows a more dynamic skill set. Johnston is now operating underneath on drag routes and schemed plays to massive success. A reception four yards downfield can quickly turn into a 25-yard gain, as Johnston possesses the second gear of a 5-foot-8, 180-pound receiver. He's challenging to bring down once defenders catch up to him, too, as he runs with wiggle and elusiveness but can lower a shoulder and gain yards with physicality.
Johnston's main weakness lies in his hands. He can be inconsistent, dropping give-me balls on occasion. While his route running and releases are improved, NFL evaluators may express concern with his inability to create clear separation. The improvements since high school should ease those concerns, though, and his hands aren't as detrimental when factoring in the spectacular catches that most receivers can't achieve.
The Comp Pick: Dez Bryant, Free Agent
Dez Bryant isn't yet retired from the NFL. While he won't look like the version inspiring Johnston's comparison to him, he's technically eligible under the guidelines of this series. Bryant won with incredible athleticism and catch-point dominance in college and the NFL. Statistically, Bryant was more dominant earlier in his career, but Johnston's skill set is reminiscent of his. Johnston has an advantage in yards after the catch, as his thinner frame gives him supreme speed after snagging the ball on underneath routes. Bryant was more physical after the catch, giving the two a different set of skills there. Visibly separating wasn't an essential piece of Bryant's game, and Johnston possesses a higher upside to win with route separation.
Final Thoughts
Johnston is a bit of a unicorn as far as the current NFL is concerned. His height and athleticism combination gives him the upside to be one of the deadliest weapons in the league. His rawness gives NFL evaluators reason to believe he has yet to reach his ceiling as a route runner and separator. Johnston dominates every week, emerging as one of the best receivers in college football and boosting his draft stock immensely. He looks like a top-20 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and dynasty managers should consider him with Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as one of the best receivers heading into rookie drafts. With that draft capital, Johnston is likely the best value pick, possessing a fantasy football ceiling that supersedes everyone not named Bijan Robinson. Johnston must continue his ascension, but early signs indicate he's on the right path.
Thank you for reading! Please follow and ask any questions @CWilliamsNFL on Twitter.
