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It’s hard to believe the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, a lot can change from our original expectations.
Wide Receivers Who Changed My Mind
A.J. Brown (PHI) remains elite
After the trade, I felt Brown became the most overvalued receiver because Philadelphia was the most run-heavy team exiting 2021. There just weren’t enough targets to support a top-10 receiver. But it’s become clear the team plans on passing a lot more in 2022, and Brown was unstoppable all summer. Draft Brown as your WR1 with confidence.
Deebo Samuel (SF) will be a hybrid player again
Samuel was agitated about his contract situation during the offseason and requested a trade because he worried his longevity as a part-time running back would be cut short. Fortunately, the 49ers paid Samuel a massive extension, which gives him long-term security. He’s now amenable to being used in a hybrid capacity again.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) will be a must-start difference maker
Russell Wilson heading to Denver was a surefire boon to everyone’s fantasy prospects, but the drum beats point toward Sutton as the breakout alpha option. Jerry Jeudy is talented but hasn’t put it together on the field yet and doesn’t seem to have the same connection with Wilson. If Sutton is healthy, he should have a top-20 floor.
Gabe Davis (BUF) could be a star
Davis was among the most debated receivers this summer, with fantasy analysts making passionate pleas for and against him. Initially, I worried he was overhyped after back-to-back 35-reception seasons. But looking at what the front office did at the position, it became clear that Davis will be counted on as an every-down player alongside Stefon Diggs. Davis’ athleticism and the overall value of the Bills' offense make him a player worth rolling the dice on as your WR3.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) is Mahomes’ new No. 1
Tyreek Hill’s trade created a massive target vacuum that needs filling. While I hoped Smith-Schuster would emerge from the pack, his injury history and lack of free agent interest kept me from fully committing without evidence. Fortunately, he stood out from the start of camp, and beat writers have made it clear he’s the new lead target. While his ADP has risen from the June lows, he’s still a value.
Chris Godwin (TB) is ready
Godwin is a star when healthy, capable of 100+ receptions with Tom Brady back under center. Godwin’s recovery from a torn ACL kept his status in limbo all summer, and his ADP reflected expectations of missed games, with many opining that he would miss four to six games. But the Buccaneers opted against putting him on the PUP list, then avoided putting him on the short-term IR list, and he’s now trending toward playing in Week 1. That means he’s a fantasy bonanza unless his ADP zooms back into the first three rounds.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) will justify his ADP
Before I wrote the St. Brown Player Spotlight, I viewed him as a fade. He was a fantasy non-factor until the Lions lost T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift late in the season. St. Brown got a historically unsustainable target share down the stretch with a barren receiving corps beyond the rookie. While I still believe his target share won’t come close to that stretch run, it awakened his potential, and he came into camp as Jared Goff’s trusted No. 1 target. A strong summer did nothing to displace him, and he’s comfortably in the mix as a top-25 option in all formats.
Amari Cooper (CLE) is undraftable at his cost
Eventually, Amari Cooper will return to top-15 form. Unfortunately, Deshaun Watson’s suspension (11 games) was longer than I expected, and Jacoby Brissett is ill-equipped to keep Cooper afloat for the first three months. The Browns' passing game will be unusable for most of the fantasy season but could morph into one of the best during the playoff push. But Cooper still commands a high draft price, and you don’t ever want to overpay for someone buried on your bench for months.
Hunter Renfrow (LV) remains a high-volume starter
Renfrow caught 103 passes last year before Davante Adams arrived. Initially, I feared Renfrow would be relegated to a complementary role behind Adams – who commands a massive target share – and incumbent star Darren Waller. But the Raiders' passing volume will be enough to support three targets, and the rest of the roster shouldn’t cannibalize the big three much, given Josh McDaniels’ tendencies as a play-caller.
Michael Gallup (DAL) is almost ready
Gallup’s recovery from a torn ACL had most of us thinking he wouldn’t factor in Dallas’ plans until October or November. His presumed absence made rookie Jalen Tolbert an attractive late-round option and pushed CeeDee Lamb into the early second round of most 12-team drafts. But Gallup’s recovery is tracking ahead of plan, and he didn’t go on the PUP list, meaning Dallas expects him back in the lineup within a few weeks.
Josh Palmer (LAC) is the most draftable backup receiver
When filling out your roster, always target high-upside picks versus floor players. For me, quite a few players fit that bill, but Palmer is atop the list. The Chargers will rely heavily on their pair of stars – Keenan Allen and Mike Williams – but Palmer seems to have overtaken Jalen Guyton for the No. 3 role. Allen and Williams have injury histories, and if Palmer gets a chance to step in for either of them, he will be an every-week starter.
George Pickens (PIT) is ready for prime time
Pickens was part of the Georgia Bulldogs deluge in the April draft, and his long-term potential in Pittsburgh was immediately recognizable. But I initially figured he would sit behind Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool in 2022 and then step into a starting role for Claypool in 2023. But talent cannot be denied, and Pickens was markedly better – and more well-rounded – than everyone on the roster outside of Johnson. He earned a starting role.
Jalen Tolbert (DAL) isn’t ready for prime time
When James Washington broke his foot, and with Michael Gallup recovering from a torn ACL, I fell hook, line, and sinker for the initial excitement surrounding rookie Tolbert. My belief in his talent and long-term future hasn’t changed, but expectations for this year have come back to earth. Gallup is set for an early season return, and Tolbert struggled with consistency in the final weeks of camp.
Sammy Watkins (GB) might have a new lease on life
I’ve been championing the Allen Lazard case all summer and still believe he’ll be the Packers' top option. But I had completely dismissed Watkins, given his maddening injury history. He hadn’t been relevant in Los Angeles, Kansas City, or Baltimore. But when Aaron Rodgers made it known he wants Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Watkins as the starters, my ears perked up. Even now, Watkins remains a very deep league option, but there’s at least a known path to success.
Kenny Golladay (NYG) isn’t a compelling late-round lottery ticket
I was down on Golladay last season, and it worked out. But his ADP plummeted so much that drafting him seemed like a worthy gamble. There was no risk. Unfortunately, Golladay had a disastrous summer and likely would’ve been released if It didn’t come at a significant cap cost. Better to roll the dice on rookie WanDale Robinson late in drafts if you’re looking for an inexpensive call option on Brian Daboll’s turnaround.