#Trendspotting: Week 11

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

Some key items are below:

• All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Leveraging the MVP Race Down the Stretch

Be sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up-to-date regarding updates to all articles I write here at FootballGuys. Feel free to reach out at any time with questions, comments, and concerns about this article or anything else fantasy football-related.

Tweets of the Week

Highest percentage of carries with 2+ yards after contact in 2021 (PFF)

1. James Robinson (77%)
2. A.J. Dillon (75%)
T3. Tony Pollard (73%)
T3. Elijah Mitchell (73%)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 16, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Ian Hartitz took to Twitter earlier this week to point out which running backs have been able to successfully run through contact most often this season. The most notable name on this list for the coming weeks is A.J. Dillon. Dillon will assume the starting running back role for the Green Bay Packers while Aaron Jones misses time with a knee injury. Last week, in Dillon's first substantial taste of NFL action, he tallied over 60 yards both on the ground and through the air and found the endzone twice. Now, in a more stable role, Dillon, who Ian Hartitz noted is a very capable ball-carrier, is poised to erupt in the coming weeks. This weekend, the Packers go on the road as 2.5-point favorites to take on the Vikings. Aaron Jones was a top-tier fantasy running back when he shared time with A.J. Dillon in this offense. Now, when Dillon starts without a notable backup to spell him, A.J. Dillon projects as one of Week 11's best running back options. He is a must-start player in season-long formats and a player worth building lineups around on DraftKings this weekend.

Through ten weeks, here is how much total EPA QBs have lost on dropped passes in 2021.

Despite having lost 40+ expected points each from drops, Mahomes, Stafford, and Brady have remained three of the league's most efficient QBs.

Drop charting: Sportradar
EPA model: nflfastR pic.twitter.com/MmhIsSm8SH

— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) November 17, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Above, Anthony Reinhard measured how much EPA each quarterback has lost thus far this season due to dropped passes. EPA, or expected points added, is a measure of expected (real) points that each play in a game is worth. Here, a high tally for a player like Patrick Mahomes II means that his receivers dropping passes has cost the Kansas City offense a significant amount of scoring production.
• Although this metric is originally designed to quantify scoreboard points that an offense or player contributes, not fantasy points, we can use the data that Anthony Reinhard summarizes above to evaluate which quarterbacks have been especially unlucky so far this season. As noted, Patrick Mahomes II tops the charts in EPA lost due to drops so far this season. Mahomes's production overall this season has been impressive; he sports a 25-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio while he has scored at least 24.9 DraftKings points in 6 out of 10 outings. If Mahomes's luck turns around throughout the second half of the season, he could thrust himself back into the MVP conversation. Look for the former MVP to stay hot after last week's 400-yard and 5-touchdown performance this weekend in a soft matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Consider prioritizing Chiefs stacks in GPPs this weekend, as Patrick Mahomes II's upside remains unmatched, especially if a few bounces go in his favor, which has yet to happen this season.

Bucs RB snaps in a trailing game script yesterday:

Lenny Fournette 31-of-48
Gio Bernard 14
Ronald Jones II 1

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 15, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II were splitting the standard-down work in Tampa Bay's backfield earlier this season, with Giovani Bernard coming in on many passing-downs. Over time, Leonard Fournette has commanded the lion's share of the standard-down work, while Ronald Jones II has played sparingly outside of garbage-time. Last week, in a negative game script against the Washington Football team, Leonard Fournette played nearly 65-percent of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps while Giovani Bernard played under 30-percent of snaps. Given Fournette's prominent role in the offense despite an increased passing rate in Week 10, there should be no worries about his playing time in any game script down the stretch this season. Leonard Fournette is a borderline bell-cow running back, which would make him a must-start player every week in season-long formats and a strong DFS option as well. This weekend, playing against the New York Giants on Monday night, Fournette costs $6,300 on DraftKings, a price well worth paying in any Thursday-through-Monday or Primetime contests.

Dan Arnold's weekly target shares since DJ Chark's season-ending injury (which coincides with Arnold playing as the full-time starter):

24.2%, 12.2%, 19.6%, 25.9%, 20.0%.

He continues to be a TE1.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 15, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Jacksonville's offense has made fantasy managers miserable all season. However, in recent weeks, one lone bright spot has shone through on this unit: Dan Arnold. The Jaguars acquired Arnold in a midseason trade with the Carolina Panthers after James OShaughnessy went down with an injury just two games into the year. Despite a lack of consistency or stability on the outside in terms of personnel and production, Dan Arnold has been a steady and reliable target at tight end for Trevor Lawrence. As JJ Zachariason notes above, Arnold has commanded at least 19.6-percent of Jacksonville's total targets in 4 out of his last 5 games. This level of consistency is extremely rare and valuable at tight end this season. Aside from Travis Kelce, the expected top producers at tight end have all failed to sustain the levels of greatness that we have come to expect from them. Arnold has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in four out of his last five games despite scoring zero touchdowns. Dan Arnold is a high-quality starting tight end option in season-long formats for the remainder of the year, and he has yet to approach his ceiling, which he will unlock by finding paydirt in the near future. Additionally, DraftKings has yet to increase Arnold's price enough; at $4,100, he is worth considering for DFS in Week 11.

Just how good has Christian McCaffrey been this year?

He's gaining 3.18 receiving yards per route run, which is second-best among *all players* and behind only Deebo Samuel (3.36).

As a runner, CMC has gained 10+ yards on 17% of his carries. Only Nick Chubb (18%) is better.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 16, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• When on the field, Christian McCaffrey is 100-percent of the fantasy producer that he was before the hamstring injury that landed him on the Injured Reserve. As Graham Barfield noted on Twitter earlier this week, McCaffrey remains an exceptionally efficient player through the air, where his per-route-run tallies rank second in the NFL, and on the ground, where his big-play rate also ranks second in the NFL. Last week, in his 2nd game back from injury, McCaffrey played 59-percent of Carolina's total offensive snaps in their blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals. In this limited playing time, McCaffrey carried the ball 13 times for 95 yards, caught all 10 of his targets for 66 yards, and was tackled inside-the-5 multiple times. Although his goalline work may be limited with Cam Newton under center, McCaffrey's profile of fantasy production is second-to-none in terms of sustainability, floor, and upside at running back. Last season, at the peak of his fantasy value, Christian McCaffrey was priced over $10,000 on DraftKings. Until he reaches that point this season, he is a player worth prioritizing for lineups in contests of all formats.
• Note: Christian McCaffrey briefly entered the blue medical tent and had a trainer working on his leg during last week's game against the Arizona Cardinals. McCaffrey's injury history over the last two seasons, combined with this apparent in-game issue that was enough for him to seek additional attention from the team's trainers, suggests that he may not be available for all seven of Carolina's remaining games. Chuba Hubbard remains a player worth stashing on the bench in season-long formats, where he may provide utility in case Christian McCaffrey misses time for any reason down the stretch this year.

Leveraging the MVP Race Down the Stretch

Current MVP Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Josh Allen: +200
• Tom Brady: +320
• Dak Prescott: +700
• Matthew Stafford: +850
• Kyler Murray: +1500
• Patrick Mahomes II: +1700
• Ryan Tannehill: +2800

Remaining Schedule Impact:

(games remaining on each players' schedule in a dome and at home, respectively)

• Josh Allen: 1 dome game & 5 home games
• Tom Brady: 2 dome games & 4 home games
• Dak Prescott: 4 dome games & 3 home games
• Matthew Stafford: 5 dome games & 3 home games
• Kyler Murray: 5 dome games & 3 home games
• Patrick Mahomes II: 1 dome game & 4 home games
• Ryan Tannehill: 1 dome game & 4 home games

Commentary and Action Items:

• Evaluating the MVP race as it stands entering Week 11 provides many useful insights into what the final 8 weeks of the NFL season may have in store and what we can expect from some of the league's strongest passing attacks.
• Atop the charts as the current betting favorite, Josh Allen leads the way at +200 with an implied 33.3-percent chance of winning MVP this season. Buffalo's remaining schedule is a bit harder than the rest of the field, as he gets to play just one game inside the cushy conditions of a dome throughout the winter months of the season, and Allen's home games in Buffalo will be in harsher conditions than most. Still, despite these pending factors against him, he remains the favorite by a decent margin ahead of Tom Brady. Last weekend, on the heels of an embarrassing loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills got rolling on offense. Allen connected with his number-one pass-catcher, Stefon Diggs, 8 times on 13 targets for 162 yards and a score. Overall, Allen totaled a season-high 366 yards through the air on just 28 pass attempts, his second-lowest mark of the year. Expect big things from Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the rest of the Bills offense over the remainder of the season, after they used their Week 10 matchup with the New York Jets as a "get-right" game. It is no coincidence that Stefon Diggs posted season-best metrics last weekend in the team's best offensive showing this season. Look for his connection with Josh Allen to play a massive role throughout the quarterback's potential MVP campaign.
• On the other hand, Tom Brady has a bit softer schedule on deck for the remainder of his season, compared to Josh Allen. Brady and the Buccaneers have two dome games, four home games, and just one game remaining on their schedule where winter weather could play a factor. At +320, Brady checks in as the second-most-likely MVP this season, according to oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook. Given the side's soft remaining schedule and favorable playing conditions, the Buccaneers' passing attack should sustain these high production levels. With Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and others sidelined, the production has concentrated with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. However, when Tampa Bay's injured pass-catchers return to the fold, projecting receiving production in this offense will become exceedingly difficult. For now, take advantage of this situation by building DFS lineups around Brady, Evans, and/or Godwin. However, keep a close eye on Tyler Johnson, a talented second-year receiver that could thrive if given increased playing time. In deep season-long leagues, Johnson is a player worth stashing for the potential upside he offers in case of an injury ahead of him on the depth chart.
• Lastly, Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans have one dome game, four home games, and just two road games in the North remaining on their schedule. Tannehill, the dark-horse candidate on this list, has posted mediocre numbers to this point in the season. However, much of his playing time this season came while the offense was heavily reliant upon Derrick Henry, the team's star running back who went down with a potentially season-ending foot injury two weeks ago. Now, with the weight of the offense resting solely on his shoulders, Ryan Tannehill has the opportunity to capitalize on a soft remaining schedule and build a case for the MVP trophy over the second half of the season. Tannehill's remaining schedule features a quartet of games against the Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans, which will surely provide a boost to his passing totals. Turn to A.J. Brown as the number-one candidate to erupt alongside Tannehill down the stretch this season. Brown has commanded at least nine targets in four out of his six games since returning from injury, and with Julio Jones on the injured reserve, he will remain the team's unchallenged number-one receiving target. Elsewhere, tight end Geoff Swaim is an interesting under-the-radar target, as he has hauled in four passes in three consecutive games and found the endzone in two of those outings. Overall, Tennessee Titans stacks should be a staple of one's weekly GPP portfolio on DraftKings. Make sure to pair Ryan Tannehill with A.J. Brown and another cheaper pass-catcher like Geoff Swaim on at least one GPP team each week down the stretch, as this offense is poised to erupt against inferior competition.