Based on feedback, we are trying this article to see how it does from an interaction standpoint. If you like this type of content, please send a note on Twitter or email your thoughts at knotts@footballguys.com. Depending on the feedback we will determine whether we continue the Showdown coverage throughout the year. Covering the Showdown slate is a significant time and investment, so this will only continue if there is interest.
Disclaimer
One thing to call out here is that Showdown analysis often times has much less value than other slates as realistically there are often 8-12 total plays within a game and one play, one penalty, one blown coverage likely determines the outcome of these contests. This is one of the reasons that we have largely stayed away from covering the contests at Footballguys. We are not Oracle’s who can see the future, it is largely a value driven analysis based off of historical performances attempting to predict future performances.
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
Showdown Strategy
Picking the right captain is critical to success in this format. Often times, playing a wide receiver as your captain and then stacking them with the quarterback can provide you with a much lower ownership compared to the reverse of taking the quarterback at the captain spot and the wide receiver in the flex. The key here is that you do not go crazy with the captain spot. If you decide to go cheap because you want stars in your lineup, make sure you’re taking players who are actually going to be on the field a decent amount.
Game Strategy
Bengals Overview
Quarterback
A lot of focus is going to be on the Bengals passing game this week as they are 7.5 point favorites at home against a struggling Jaguars team. In a GPP this week, there is a case to be made to fade the passing game and focus on a game scenario where the game plays out very similarly to last week’s game against Pittsburgh in that Cincinnati essentially just shut down the passing game once they got out to a big lead. Joe Burrow will be very popular this week especially in the Captain’s spot, so fading him at the Captain spot and putting him in your flex, or fading him altogether is a risky strategy that could pay off.
Recommendation: Fade at CPT, play in Flex if WR as captain. Can fade altogether if Mixon/Robinson
Running Back
There is a lot to like with Joe Mixon this week. Mixon is a volume-based running back who is averaging 23 carries per game thus far this season. Jacksonville has yet to be tested with a running back of the caliber of Mixon, but did allow James Conner to find the end-zone twice last week. Mixon likely has the highest potential for a multi-touchdown performance. If this game ends up being a low scoring affair, Mixon will be the guy that you want in your captain spot this week.
Recommendation: CPT and Flex Viable
Wide Receiver
At the wide receiver position, Ja’Marr Chase is going to be popular this week at both the captain and flex positions. The only downside to Chase is that he is expensive based off of having four touchdowns in his first three games of the season. What’s interesting here is that Tyler Boyd is $2,800 cheaper at the flex spot and $4,200 cheaper at the captain spot. In terms of value, is there really that big of a difference between Boyd and Chase? The only real difference is that Boyd is not the guy who is going to have the 50+ yard touchdown and completely break the slate, but he had more targets than Chase last week.
Auden Tate on the low end for the Bengals is an intriguing option due to his price. Tate is going to be on the field in this game, as he was on the field for 60% of the plays last week due to Tee Higgins injury. At just $400 at the flex position, he provides a nice cost savings that no other player can provide. The problem with Tate is that even though he is a massive wide receiver listed at 6’5’’ 230 pounds, in his 115 career targets he has just one touchdown. He’s a decent play here to load up at the other position in a week where there is not a lot of low-end options.
Recommendation:
Ja’Marr Chase- Flex play only, and could be a good fade against the field. Price is simply too high to be able to fill out a competitive roster.
Tyler Boyd- Great play in both flex and captain spot. Value play that should see the most targets for the Bengals this week.
Auden Tate- Pure punt play, but could pay off at the captain or flex position if he can find the end-zone or pull together a couple of catches. Allows you to stack up the rest of your lineup.
Cincinnati Defense- The Bengals have quietly put up some very strong defensive stats this season. On the year, they have 10 sacks as their investment in the defensive line has paid off with D.J. Reader in his first healthy season with the Bengals and bringing over Trey Hendrickson from New Orleans. Trevor Lawrence thus far this season has thrown seven interceptions which leads the NFL (Tied with fellow rookie Zach Wilson).
Recommendation: Flex viable, would not play in captain spot unless playing 10+ lineups.
Jaguars Overview
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence’s start to the NFL has been shaky at best. Lawrence in Week 1 had a good fantasy performance, but most of that was in garbage time as he had cost the team the game with his three turnovers and early struggles as the Jaguars lost to Houston 37-21. Since then, the turnovers have persisted as he has 7 interceptions on the season, but the passing volume has declined. In Week 1, Lawrence threw the ball 51 times, in the two games since then he has thrown the ball 33.5 times averaging just 169 yards in those games.
Lawrence is priced higher than he likely should be, which should drive his ownership lower which could create an opportunity. While Jacksonville is not projected to win this game, there is a scenario where they do, and if they do, Lawrence will be a big reason why.
Recommendation: Strong Flex Play if you take a Jacksonville WR as captain. Ok flex play if stacking both quarterbacks and expecting a shootout.
Running Back
James Robinson after his Week 1 struggles has turned his season around statistically. In Week 1, Robinson mysteriously had only 5 carries and was out-touched by Carlos Hyde. Since then, Robinson is averaging 17.5 touches per game, but the more important number is that of those 17.5 touches, 4.5 of those are receptions. If there is a drawback, it is that the Bengals defense is a much improved unit this season as they are allowing just 78.3 yards rushing per game and that includes games against Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, and Najee Harris. Robinson realistically could be the worst player out of that group, so that is a little scary with how good this defense has been.
Recommendation: Decent Flex play if you have the salary.
Wide Receiver
The wide receiver play for the Jaguars will be the critical component to Showdown lineups this week. There really are three contenders here in Marvin Jones, DJ Chark, and Laviska Shenault. The issue for Shenault thus far is that he has not been unleashed, as he is taking on the short underneath passing game as he is averaging just 7.3 yards-per-catch which is horrendous. Shenault does draw a somewhat favorable matchup out of the slot against Mike Hilton who was shredded by KJ Osborne back in Week 1 allowing 7 receptions for 76 yards out of the slot.
Marvin Jones is likely the player that you can play in either Captain or Flex position as he is clearly the number on guy in Jacksonville. Jones has 28 targets on the year which is by far the highest for the Jaguars with the next closest being 22 with DJ Chark. Jones should be utilized almost identically to how the Vikings used Adam Thielen back in Week 1 in which Thielen had 9 receptions for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns. Predicting the touchdowns is a difficult venture, but Jones already has two on the season.
Chark is likely the guy who is a tough call as he has just 7 receptions in his first 3 games on a staggering 22 targets. He is the home run player, which could lead him to be a great play at the captain spot if he can find a way to get behind this defense. It is risky though, because if they do not connect on the deep ball, you could very easily see a performance much like Week 2 where he had just one catch for 19 yards.
Recommendation:
Laviska Shenault- Flex only. Likely does not have the upside to be a captain play
Marvin Jones- Captain or Flex. Great play at his price for the volume usage that you are getting from Jones. Most likely wide receiver to find the end zone.
DJ Chark- Strong captain play, but would not play him at the flex position. Too much volatility that if he has a big game, you’ll be behind the players who started him at the captain position.
