Stop Undervaluing Keenan Allen

Photo: USA Today Sports

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Keenan Allen doesn’t get enough respect. Now 29 years old, he has been repeatedly called an injury-prone, average player who benefits from a high target volume. However, people don’t truly understand that Allen has shed the injury-prone label, and his injuries – when he had them – mainly were just bad luck. In reality, he is a top-10 receiver with an exciting, talented, young quarterback who loves to throw the football. Did I mention yet that he has made FOUR straight Pro Bowls?

No Longer Injury Prone

Allen was a third-round draft pick in 2013 by the Chargers. He quickly made a significant impact, leading the Chargers with 1,046 receiving yards on his way to a runner-up finish in the Rookie of the Year voting. The next three years would go a long way to earning him the injury-prone label. A broken collarbone in 2014, lacerated kidney in 2015, and torn ACL in 2016 would end each season early. He missed 25 games over those three seasons, finishing WR47, WR46, and WR171, but was a top-20 draft pick in each season. But over the last four seasons, he’s been a pillar of reliability. He’s played in 62 of 64 regular-season games since 2017.

Allen currently sits ninth in ADP, but he deserves to be a few spots higher than he is, especially in PPR formats. He has four straight years of at least 97 catches, but he hasn’t had much luck in the touchdown department. Over those same four seasons, he’s only scored 26 totals touchdowns. However, he did score eight times last year in 14 games with rookie Justin Herbert. That should only improve this season with a more experienced Herbert.

Statistical Freak

As you can see above, Allen produces year in and year out. He was Philip Rivers’ favorite target in all the years he played for the Chargers and has continued that streak with Herbert’s first year in the NFL. Allen acts as his quarterback’s safety blanket and is probably the most reliable slot receiver in the league at this point. He also signed a four-year, $80.1 million contract extension right before last season, which should tie him and Herbert together for the foreseeable future.

Allen joins DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas as the only three wide receivers with at least 100 catches in three seasons since 2017. As the Chargers have continued to add receiver depth, Allen’s role continues to grow. His target share has jumped in each of the last three years, from 8.5 targets per game in 2018 to 9.3 in 2019, and then to an astounding 10.5 last season. This increase signifies that even with Allen approaching his age-30 season, the team’s dependence on him isn’t waning anytime soon. He is one of the best route runners in the league, ranking in the 94th percentile against man coverage with a 77.3% success rate, per Reception Perception data. He also held a 78.6% success rate against press coverage which comfortably ranks in the 89th percentile.

#NFL #Chargers Keenan Allen was ranked the top route running WR in 2020 and also the top 5 overall per Next Gen Stats. #NFLUpdate #LosAngeles pic.twitter.com/A7hmE1bKll

— NFL Update (@nflupdate247) July 25, 2021

O-Line to the Rescue

When people say the Chargers offensive line was bad in 2020, they’re understating the problem. ProFootballFocus ranked the line dead-last (No. 32), struggling immensely with pass-blocking. Right guard Trai Turner, added in the 2020 Russell Okung deal, had upside going into the season but was slowed by a groin injury and did not look good at all in pass protection. Tackle Bryan Bulaga, a high-priced, free-agent signing, also underperformed.

There is real hope for improvement coming into this year, and Footballguys’ own Victoria Geary had this to say about how the Chargers line is looking into 2021.

“Fortunately, the Chargers invested heavily in their offensive line this offseason. New center Corey Linsley was voted first-team All-Pro and ranked first overall in run blocking per PFF, not allowing a single tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage. The front office also signed guard Matt Feiler from the Pittsburgh Steelers and drafted offensive tackle Rashawn Slater with the 13th overall pick in the NFL draft.”

There should be a healthy measure of optimism given these moves for the Chargers, as the offensive line has been the Achilles heel the last couple of years.

Keenan Allen Stats

Footballguys Projections

At the end of the day, Keenan Allen seems like a fantastic value going into the 2021 season. Currently drafted as the WR9 in the Footballguys consensus rankings, there is a very realistic scenario where Allen can have a meteoric season with a fully confident Justin Herbert continuing to feed him and rocket into the top-six wide receivers. <>It seems all systems go for Allen to hit on another 100 catch, 1,000+ yard season with a very favorable schedule, so why not take advantage of where your league-mates are looking to draft him. Draft him a bit early and catch the fish that will swim you towards a championship in 2021.

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