Austin Ekeler Will Win You a Title in 2021

Photo: USA Today Sports

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Put Respect on His Name

Austin Ekeler is no stranger to being an underrated running back. He began his NFL career as an undrafted free agent out of Western Colorado and was once viewed as a long shot to make the Chargers starting roster in 2017. Heading into the 2021 season, Ekeler is now regarded as one of the league’s most efficient, well-rounded running backs. He signed a four-year $24.5 million extension after his outstanding career-year performance in 2019, making him the 10th highest-paid running back in the league.

Unfortunately, the hype derailed in 2020, as a Grade-2 hamstring strain caused him to miss a significant portion of the season. Those who waited and watched closely for his return were relieved he didn’t skip a beat upon his Week 12 return. Ekeler garnered 16 targets from Justin Herbert and totaled 129 yards from scrimmage. He finished as the 26th-ranked running back for the season, but he was a much more impressive RB9 on a per-game basis. Though some are down on Ekeler due to his injury history and lack of significant rushing attempts over the years, rest assured he will be a league-winner in 2021. He has proven he can be a top-5 fantasy asset without 200+ carries. His ceiling is substantive, and his exceptional pass-catching abilities make him a legitimate threat anywhere on the field. The best part? He should be available in most drafts in the second round, despite having first-round upside if he stays healthy.

Remember when @AustinEkeler opened the 2019 season with 39.4 @NFLFantasy points AND a game-winning TD? ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/tEWNG1oGaa

— NFL (@NFL) August 20, 2020

Elite Target Share

In 2019, Ekeler played a full season for the Chargers behind teammate Melvin Gordon. Gordon was unhappy with his contract and threatened a lengthy holdout, yet Ekeler’s average draft position held steady at RB29, the 71st player off the board on average. In the first four games that Gordon sat out, Ekeler lit the field ablaze. He averaged 20 touches, 123 scrimmage yards, and 26.8 PPR points per game – second among fantasy back behind only Christian McCaffrey. Even though Gordon eventually returned, Ekeler finished the season RB4 overall and RB5 on a per-game basis.

Running back targets aren’t exclusively valuable in PPR formats. They correlate to excellent in every scoring format. Footballguys contributor Ryan Weisse recently hit on the extreme value of targets compared to carries for running backs, and the data is telling.

“The average single carry for a running back will earn you 0.66 fantasy points, while a catch is worth 2.02, and simply being targeted is worth 1.56 fantasy points. While a target has no inherent value, the fact that the average running back catches 77% of their targets gives it an expected fantasy value.”

Ekeler's 89% catch rate over the past two seasons is better than Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey's. To put this into further perspective, Derrick Henry finished as the RB5 (PPR) in 2019, one spot lower than Ekeler. Yet, Henry had 171 more carries, 982 more rushing yards, and seven more touchdowns on the season. Ekeler had more than four times the total targets than Henry, which catapulted him to his RB4 finish in 2019.

Over the last two seasons, Ekeler has averaged a healthy 17% target share for the Chargers. When he returned in Week 12, Ekeler received an average of eight targets per game with Herbert at the helm, a 16-game pace of 128 total targets. Yes, looking at a 16-game pace can sometimes be misleading, but Ekeler had 108 total targets in 2019 and can easily have another 100+ target season in 2021. His eight targets per game would have been the highest per-game target share of any running back last year. McCaffrey is currently the only running back projected for more receptions than Ekeler.

Footballguys 2021 Projections: Running Back Reception Leaders

Offensive Line Additions

The Chargers offensive line ranked dead last in 2020. The center position, in particular, is vital to run-blocking. He's tasked with controlling the interior and opening holes for a running back to hit without breaking stride. Chargers center Dan Feeney ranked 51st out of 54 centers in run blocking per Pro Football Focus in 2020 and allowed the most quarterback hurries and pressures in the league. Fortunately, the Chargers invested heavily in their offensive line this offseason. New center Corey Linsley was voted first-team All-Pro and ranked first overall in run blocking per PFF, not allowing a single tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage. The front office also signed guard Matt Feiler from the Pittsburgh Steelers and drafted offensive tackle Rashawn Slater with the 13th overall pick in the NFL draft.

The good news? Ekeler wasn’t held back by his offensive line in either 2019 or 2020, averaging 18.7 points per game. His touches increased from 14.0 in 2019 to 18.6 in 2020. Ekeler is ranked 2nd overall in points-per-touch over the last three years, behind only Kamara. With a reinforced offensive line and quarterback Justin Herbert targeting Ekeler an average of eight times per game, he's poised for a significant workload in the upcoming season.

Don't sleep on @AustinEkeler the receiver. 🤫

He's got the most yards after catch (1,431) in the league since 2019. (via @PFF) pic.twitter.com/p0yZqFpEgz

— NFL (@NFL) June 3, 2021

New Coaching Staff

After firing head coach Anthony Lynn, the Chargers hired Brandon Staley as head coach and Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator. Lombardi coached under Sean Payton in New Orleans from 2016 through 2020 and recently compared Ekeler’s skill set to that of Kamara. The Saints running back (Kamara) hasn’t finished lower than 9th in four consecutive seasons. It's not fair to expect Ekeler to match Kamara's excellence, but their skill sets are undeniably similar. Lombardi has the perfect blueprint for maximizing Ekeler's value. He'll touch the ball in multiple ways, as a traditional runner out of the backfield, as a slot receiver, and occasionally lined out wide. The key is finding ways to create mismatches. Ekeler played a minimum of 60% of snaps in all but two healthy games in 2020; expect Lombardi to keep Ekeler on the field as often as possible. Backups Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley were both less-than-stellar in 2020; they're not threats to Ekeler's snap count as long as he stays healthy.

PROJECTIONS AND STATS

Final Thoughts

With a clean bill of health, a generous target share, and virtually no competition, Ekeler is primed to explode. His rapport with Herbert and the upgrades to the offensive line will be keys to his success. His teammates have officially dubbed him with the nickname "Pound for Pound," or PFP for short, as they believe he is pound-for-pound the strongest player on the team. Prioritize drafting Ekeler, as he will be the strongest player on YOUR team, too. And he'll help to lead your charge to a fantasy football championship.