No position is more unpredictable in fantasy football than kickers. Year after year after year, no position has a lower correlation between where they're drafted before the season and where they finish after the season. No position has a lower correlation between how they score in one week and how they score in the next. No position has a lower correlation between projected points and actual points.
In addition, placekicker is the position that has the smallest spread between the best players and the middle-of-the-pack players for fantasy. Finally, most fantasy GMs will only carry one kicker at a time, which means there are a dozen or more starting kickers sitting around on waivers at any given time. Given all of this, it rarely makes sense to devote resources to the position. Instead, GMs are best served by rotating through whichever available kicker has the best weekly matchup.
Every week, I'll rank the situations each kicker finds himself in (ignoring the talent of the kicker himself) to help you find perfectly startable production off the waiver wire.
Week 13 Results
Matt Gay (3 FG attempts, 3 FGs, 4 XPs, 13 points)
There had been questions about the Rams offense recently, but they still had more than enough firepower against the overmatched Jaguars. Gay's 13 points ranked 2nd among all kickers in Week 13.
Mike Badgley (2 FG attempts, 1 FG, 4 XPs, 7 points)
Like Gay, Badgley's Colts beat up on an overmatched opponent. Badgley missed a 35-yarder which would have left him 4th on the week. Instead, he finished with 7 points, still good for 12th.
Matt Prater (2 FG attempts, 2 FGs, 3 XPs, 9 points)
Prater's appeal fell a bit with Kyler Murray sidelined, but with their star quarterback back under center, the Cardinals offense picked up right where it left off. Prater missed out on an extra point attempt when the offense went for a 2-point conversion, but still finished in a tie for 5th place.
Jake Elliott (4 FG attempts, 4 FGs, 3 XPs, 15 points)
Elliott was the 18th-best kicker through 10 weeks, but the Eagles offense has come alive recently, topping 30 points in three of its last four games. Even with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew under center, the New York Jets defense provided little resistance and Elliott's 15 points led all players at the position.
Greg Zuerlein (2 FG attempts, 2 FGs, 3 XPs, 9 points)
The Cowboys' offense wasn't as explosive as usual against the Saints, but Zuerlein made up for it with a 55-yard field goal and finished with 9 points, tied for 5th on the week.
Results To Date
To date, Rent-a-Kicker has made 65 weekly recommendations. Those 65 kickers have averaged 8.34 points, compared to 7.39 in 2020 and 7.65 in 2019. That average would currently rank 4th at the position. Our top weekly recommendation averages 8.77 points, while every highlighted kicker with a great matchup averages 8.62, both of which would rank 2nd after giving every other kicker 7 points in their bye week.
The top 12 kickers by preseason ADP were Harrison Butker (94 points), Justin Tucker (105 points), Younghoe Koo (77 points), Greg Zuerlein (102 points), Tyler Bass (105 points), Ryan Succop (96 points), Jason Sanders (76 points), Rodrigo Blankenship (96 points), Jason Myers (62 points), Matt Gay (111 points), Brandon McManus (86 points), and Matt Prater (98 points) (after giving each kicker 7 points for every game he missed). Despite the extra draft capital expenditure (and the relatively generous bonus for missed games), none of these kickers are outperforming our top weekly streamer or the average of all of our highlighted "Great Plays". The twelve kickers have scored an average of 92.3 points compared to 112.0 from the average of our available "great plays".
Week 14 Situations
**Here is a list of the teams with the best matchups based on Vegas projected totals and stadium, along with the expected kicker for each team. The top five players who are on waivers in over 50% of leagues based on NFL.com roster percentages are italicized and will be highlighted in next week's column. Also, note that these rankings specifically apply to situations; teams will occasionally change kickers mid-week, but any endorsements apply equally to whatever kicker winds up eventually getting the start.**
Great Plays
Chiefs (Harrison Butker)
**Titans (Randy Bullock)
**Broncos (Brandon McManus)
**Chargers (Dustin Hopkins)
Buccaneers (Ryan Succop)
**Packers (Mason Crosby)
**Cardinals (Matt Prater)
Seahawks (Jason Myers)
Rams (Matt Gay)
Good Plays
Bills (Tyler Bass)
Vikings (Greg Joseph)
Bengals (Evan McPherson)
Saints (Brett Maher)
Cowboys (Greg Zuerlein)
Neutral Plays
Panthers (Zane Gonzalez)
Browns (Chase McLaughlin)
Football Team (Brian Johnson)
Steelers (Chris Boswell)
Raiders (Daniel Carlson)
49ers (Robbie Gould)
Poor Plays
Texans (Kaimi Fairbairn)
Jets (Eddy Pineiro)
Falcons (Younghoe Koo)
Ravens (Justin Tucker)
Lions (Riley Patterson/Aldrick Rosas)
Giants (Graham Gano)
Avoid at All Costs
Jaguars (Matthew Wright)
Bears (Cairo Santos)
