Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
Game Strategy
It seems like we have had some bad offenses the last several weeks and this game is no different. The Bears rank dead last in the NFL in terms of total offense at just 264 yards per game, and now with David Montgomery looking like he will be back (more on that later), there are not a lot of great options on the Chicago side of the ball. The Bears are projected to score 17 points in this game, so there will be points scored, but identifying them will be the tricky part. Justin Fields can be electric with his legs, the wide receivers are a bit of a mess with Allen Robinson struggling mightily and Darnell Mooney who has been inconsistent throughout the season.
The running back position is the most interesting as if David Montgomery is active, this is a tough one to determine as both he and Khalil Herbert are both priced as if they are going to receive the full complement of carries.
For Pittsburgh the options are fairly narrow. Their offense funnels through Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson and a little bit of Chase Claypool.
All in all, we are likely going to have to take some flyers on some low-end players, and if you want to take a week off of showdown, I wouldn’t blame you, but let’s jump into it.
Key Injuries:
Questionable:
David Montgomery- Appears to be
Captain Consideration:
- Najee Harris
- Justin Fields
- Pittsburgh Defense
- David Montgomery
- Diontae Johnson
- Justin Fields
- Zach Gentry
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Justin Fields- Great Captain/Flex
Justin Fields finally started to utilize his rushing ability last week. Last week against San Francisco, Fields ran for 103 yards and a touchdown. Over his last three weeks, he has rushed for 30+ yards in every game which he only had 25 yards total in his prior three games of running. The team seemingly has finally embraced the quarterbacks rushing ability to try to help compensate for his limited ability thus far as a passer. For Fields to pay off this week, he is going to have to once again have a big rushing day which makes him likely as a better as a captain than as a flex due to his price and the upside of the Steelers elite players. You could flex him in a 4 Steelers/1 Bears flex with the hope that Pittsburgh gets out to a big lead and Fields is scrambling the entire second half trying to come back.
Running Back
David Montgomery- Great Captain/Flex
Often on showdown lineups you have to take a stand. This week, the stand is that David Montgomery will revert back to his normal role and see 80%+ of the touches even though most of the industry believes that he will be in a snap count/time share with Khalil Herbert. The logic here is somewhat simple as if Montgomery was not healthy, why bring him back when Khalil Herbert has shown he is more than capable of continuing to own that role in Chicago. If Montgomery is out, Khalil Herbert becomes right up there with Najee Harris as the top captain this week.
Wide Receiver
Darnell Mooney- Flex
In a game where there is relatively limited options on the Bears side, Darnell Mooney could be someone that you look towards as a flex play. The price is a good one as at $6,400, he is the last player who has a stable role in this game. Mooney has been the most targeted player in Chicago this season and is coming off of 15 targets over his last two games. Touchdowns have been the issue for Mooney as he has just one, but touchdowns for all of the Bears wide receivers has been a challenge as Fields has just three passing touchdowns all season.
Other Targets
Allen Robinson- Fade The price is too high this week. While he still is an incredibly talented player, he has just 8 targets over his last two games which you want more of a defined role for a bad passing offense this week.
Cole Kmet- Flex For Cole Kmet a touchdown is coming, the only question is when. Over his last three games, he has 5 targets in the red zone including three last week. Even if he doesn’t find the end zone, he should have a floor that is high enough for you to feel somewhat comfortable fitting into your lineup. Kmet has 12 receptions over his last 3 games.
Pittsburgh Steelers-
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger- Flex Only/Fade Candidate
For Roethlisberger, the problem this week is the price as at $10,600 it is simply too high for the lack of upside that he possesses compared to his wide receivers. On the season, Roethlisberger is averaging just 14.2 DraftKings points which simply is not good enough for a quarterback. This is a player has thrown for 300+ yards just once and thrown for multiple touchdowns just once. With no rushing upside, the only reason to Flex him here and not outright fade him is the stacking component with a wide receiver at the Captain spot.
Running Back
Najee Harris- Great Captain/Flex
If you can afford him, Najee Harris is the best play on the board without a doubt. Harris is a somewhat limited “runner”, but where he makes most of his work is through the air. As a running back, Harris is averaging just 3.7 yards-per-carry, but he has 31 receptions over his last 5 games and has scored a touchdown in each of his last four games. Harris has topped 21 points in each of his last 5 games and facing a Chicago defense that just allowed 131 yards and a touchdown to Elijah Mitchell and 90 yards and a touchdown to Leonard Fournette.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Diontae Johnson- Better Flex, but could use as a Captain
Diontae Johnson is best utilized as a flex play this week simply because the price is too high. Johnson profiles as a possession receiver, but has been much more than that this year as he has really slid into an Antonio Brown type role albeit with a much more washed up Ben Roethlisberger. Johnson has been good, topping 70 yards in 5 straight games, but has only topped 100 yards once this season (105). Johnson has not topped 20 fantasy points which is what he will need this week since Week 4. Johnson could be utilized as a pivot off of Najee Harris, as if he can put everything together and top 100 yards and find the end zone, he could be the top scorer this week.
Chase Claypool- Low End Flex
When it comes to Chase Claypool, the Steelers are seemingly using him incorrectly. For as big of a wide receiver as he is, he is rarely utilized in the red zone. Claypool has just five red zone targets this season, which has led to him scoring just one touchdown on the season compared to the 11 touchdowns he scored in 2020. At 6’4 240 pounds, the Steelers should be utilizing him more, but they just unfortunately are not. He’s a flex play, but likely difficult to fit in this week.
Other Targets-
Zach Gentry- Great Flex
If you’re looking for salary savings this week, Zach Gentry is the player you want to look hard at. Last week, Gentry saw 61% of the plays due to Eric Ebron not playing which led him to see 5 targets. On the surface that may not seem impressive, but if we’re desperate for salary relief this week, Gentry could be the player that you take at $1,800 and just hope for 3-4 receptions to make value. With no Eric Ebron once again this week, Gentry is a tremendous play.
Pittsburgh Defense-Great Captain/Flex
By now, if you’re still reading this, you sort of have a feeling how we believe this game is going to go. It is likely going to be a typical Steelers game in which not a lot of offense is produced and we see a lot of defense. The Bears on the season lead the NFL in sacks while playing a full game fewer than 2nd and 3rd on the list. The Bears have been sacked 30 times this season and are in the bottom half of the league with 11 turnovers. This is a prime game for the Steelers to come out and once again show their defensive dominance this week as they have been trending upwards after a slow start to the season.