Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
Game Strategy
This is a tough slate of two teams that so much of their offense comes through a singular player. Both Josh Allen and Derrick Henry are incredibly expensive. This is likely a game where you are going to want to take a mid-tier player at captain to be able to afford the top end players in Henry/Allen. The other option here is to hope the game is not close and build a team stack (4 players on one team). Finally you could play it where you're hoping for an injury to a key player such as Zack Moss or someone else to provide great upside to their backups.
Captain Consideration:
Tennessee Offense
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill- Contrarian Flex Play
Ryan Tannehill is going to go lower rostered than a quarterback otherwise should simply because of the price, the matchup, and the desire to play Josh Allen and Derrick Henry. While it is likely the right strategy to take Allen/Henry, there is a non-zero chance that the Bills are able to shut down Henry in this game whether through game script (Bills get out to a big early lead) or through selling out to stop the Titans running back.
If this is the case, Tannehill could provide some leverage on the field and he has shown his own running ability as he ran for 56 yards earlier this season against Indianapolis. It is a low-end flex play for sure as Tannehill has topped 18 points just once this season where Allen and Henry have the big ceiling potential, but not all games go according to plan.
Running Back
Derrick Henry- Great Flex, tough Captain.
What is there to say about Derrick Henry this season. Through 5 weeks, Henry has 156 touches which is on pace for a staggering 530 touches this season. Last season, Henry led the league in touches with 397 touches, but is on pace to have 133 more this season. It is likely not a sustainable pace, and it’s likely inflated due to the health of Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, but we need to keep riding it while we can.
The challenge for Henry this week is simply the price and whether we can justify taking him at the captain position. With seemingly needing to take both Josh Allen and Derrick Henry, it only leaves $5,000 per roster spot to build out the remainder of your roster. In a better matchup, you could justify it, but Buffalo is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Secondary Running Back in order of priority- 1) Jeremy McNichols (looks like he might miss) if he misses 2) Darrynton Evans (currently on IR, if he’s activated Monday, strong play), 3) Mekhi Sargent (if both are out Sargent becomes the play)
One thing to watch this week is whether Darrynton Evans will be activated from IR this week. It’s looking like if he can go, the Titans will activate him this week as Jeremy McNichols looks like he is going to miss this week after not practicing this past week. At just $200 this week, Evans is likely going to get 20-30% of the snaps if he’s active this week based on past history of Jeremy McNchols as well as Evans prior usage. Evans provides a nice passing option out of the backfield for the Titans and realistically is someone that at just $200 is going to be extremely popular if he’s activated from IR.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown- Flex Only
A.J. Brown is an interesting play this week. Coming back from injury Brown mentioned in an interview that the plan is to keep him on a limited snap count until about Week 10. With Brown only seeing 60% of the snaps last week, it makes it difficult to trust him as a captain heading into this week.
Julio Jones- Good Flex, Low-End Captain
Julio is another player who coming back from injury, we just are not sure how he will perform. The price is a good one at $6,600 which based on the limited savings opportunities this week could make Jones viable for the captain spot especially if A.J. Brown is as banged up as it sounds like. At just $6,600 for a flex spot and for $9,900 at the captain spot, Jones provides a nice mid-range option that has upside as we saw earlier this year when he topped 100-yards.
Other Targets-
Other WR- The big question for Tennessee will be whether there is room for any of these other wide receivers to have value.
Chester Rogers is likely a non-play due to his price being elevated up to $4,400, and while he is the most likely to have some level of production the upside is really limited.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Flex Play
Nick Westrook-Ikhine is a decent flex play in that he is very cheap at just $1,200 this week. While A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are going to play, Westbrook-Ikhine still should see some snaps in this game as he saw 38% in Week 1, and 18% in Week 2. He is the direct backup to A.J. Brown so if Brown sees 60-70% of snaps like anticipated, Westbrook-Ikhine should be in line to pay off his salary.
Anthony Firkser- Low-End Flex Play Firkser is a guy that is not going to excite anyone as he has three receptions in all three of his games that he has played, but at $4,000, he has more upside than a kicker as if he’s able to find the end-zone he will likely be on the optimal lineup. Expect 6-7 points from Firkser this week even if he doesn’t score.
Bills Overview
Quarterback
Josh Allen- Outstanding Flex, Tough to fit at Captain
There’s not many words that need to be said about Allen and his upside this week, so we are going to talk about why you should think about fading Allen as a captain. First and foremost, he’s going to be highly rostered at that position, but secondly, he’s not running enough to justify taking him at that spot.
The problem is very similar to Derrick Henry, in that the only way to get both players is to take both of them at the flex position. If you take Allen at the captain you probably are going to want to fade Derrick Henry and hope for a game script where the Bills get out to a big lead which limits Henry’s upside.
Running Back
Zach Moss- Fade
When you’re writing articles it’s always a difficult thing to say a player is an outright fade, as every player has a chance to have a multi-touchdown performance or break a long play that changes their outcomes. However, Zack Moss seems like the perfect fade candidate this week as the price is simply too high at $7,000. Last week, where Moss saw a snap count % of 74%, he still only had 11 carries. This is a team that is simply not willing to commit to Moss and still prefer to rotate their running backs with Devin Singletary who had 6 carries on 24% of snaps. The matchup is a neutral one for Moss, so you’re really hoping for something abnormal for him if you take him in this game where he breaks a long catch, or finds the end-zone multiple times.
Devin Singletary- Risky Captain or Decent Flex
At just $4,600 Singletary will largely go under-rostered in this contest as people are going to look at the 24% snap count last week and just avoid him as it is a decrease from the 40% share he had been trending. However, whenever there is a backup running back that is not going to be highly rostered on a slate that is difficult to fill out, he is intriguing. If either of these scenarios happens, Devin Singletary becomes one of the top flex plays at the price on this slate.
Could that 24% go back to 40% in the right game script and instead of the 6 carries per game, Singletary bounces back to the 11-12?
Could Zach Moss get injured on this slate and then Devin Singletary all of a sudden becomes the must rostered player to have on this slate?
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Stefon Diggs- Great Captain/Flex
Stefon Diggs is in line for some significant positive regression this season. Diggs leads the NFL in Red Zone targets with 12 targets and has just 1 touchdown on the year. Compare that to Cooper Kupp who is second in that category with 11 targets and he now has 6 touchdowns on the season. Diggs struggled last week as he had just 2 receptions for 69 yards, and has not had the breakout game that we look for from Diggs which is the 100+ yards 1-2 touchdown performance.
This could be the week where Diggs gets right. Tennessee is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and they have especially struggled at stopping number one wide receivers as DeAndre Hopkins (83 yards, 2 touchdowns), Tyler Lockett (178 yards, 1 touchdown), Corey Davis (111 yards, 1 touchdown) have all torched this secondary. Look for Diggs to get right this week and he is one of the top plays on this slate.
Emmanuel Sanders- Great Captain/Flex Play
Emmanuel Sanders has really resurged his career since going to Buffalo this year. At 34 years old, Sanders is averaging 74 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game over his last three games. Sanders is in a favorable matchup much like Stefon Diggs as Tennessee has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. He’s a great captain as he’s a pivot off of Diggs and could provide multiple touchdown upside this week. As a flex play, he fits great in a Bills stack where you could have Josh Allen as captain with Diggs and Sanders as flex plays.
Other Targets-
Dawson Knox- Fade- The problem with Knox is the price. At $7,600, you’re essentially paying for the 3 touchdowns he has scored over the last two games.
Tyler Bass- Flex Play- Top projected kicker on Footballguys this week.
Cole Beasley- Captain Play- Once again targeting this Titans defense. Beasley is trending downwards which could limit his roster percentage, but he is still a red zone threat as he has 6 targets in the red zone. He’s expensive, but in a Bills stack could pay off. Beasley has multiple touchdown upside, but it’s extremely risky.
Gabriel Davis- Low End Flex Play- With Cole Beasley falling out of favor in Buffalo, Gabriel Davis could see more volume this week. At just $2,000, he could be a nice piece to a Buffalo stack.