If you want to dominate your drafts this weekend, you need the most up-to-date information and ADP possible, focusing on interpreting the latest news and notes to gain an edge in your drafts.
In recent years, the Underdog daily ADP updates have added a tremendous resource to our tool belts. We get almost instantaneous “wisdom of the crowd” feedback from thousands of sharp and dialed-in fantasy drafters. While the Underdog best ball ADP may not be directly applicable to your non-best ball league, the recent changes in draft stock in reaction to the latest news provide a treasure trove of information you can use to dominate your non-best ball drafts this weekend.
In this week’s article, we will look at all of the players who have seen ADP moves over the last week in each part of the draft (early, middle, and late rounds).
ADP Movers
We will break out the biggest ADP movers into draft categories (early rounds, middle rounds, and late rounds) to get a feel for how recent news has impacted draft stock and how the market is reacting.
Early Rounds (Top 100 Picks) Risers
Javonte Williams
Williams has seen his Underdog ADP rise about half a round from 69 to 63.7 over the past week, which is a big move for a Top 100 player. Williams has had the backfield to himself for about a week with Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone sidelined, and it looks like he has locked down a big role in his rookie season. “I haven’t seen him get ‘rattled,’ or the moment’s too big,” said potential starting quarterback Drew Lock of Williams. “I know we just played in our first preseason game … but being next to him back there, it honestly gives me a little more calmness, just being able to be relaxed. Because he knows his job, he knows what he needs to do. And when he gets the ball in his hands, he runs pretty hard.”
Javonte Williams looked great in his preseason debut. Your window to buy is closing fast. Go get him before it’s too late! pic.twitter.com/VXKabBdXmr
— Upside Play (@TheUpsidePlay) August 18, 2021
Williams passed the “eye test” with flying colors and is likely to see his ADP rise even more between now and Week 1 as more people see him in preseason action. He is a great target in this range.
Antonio Brown
Brown has been slowly but steadily seeing his ADP rise the entire offseason. It has not been any single piece of news; he seems to move up a few spots every week. Brown’s ADP has moved into the sixth round (71.5). There is a lot to be excited about when it comes to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers passing offense. Of the top three targets, Brown is the discount option, but the gap between Brown and Chris Godwin/Mike Evans continues to narrow. This ADP feels about right for Brown, considering he is 33-years old.
Early Rounds (Top 100 Picks) Fallers
Myles Gaskin
Over the past week, Gaskin has fallen from the middle of the sixth round (66.1) to the top of the seventh round (72.5). Given the uncertainty about how much of a committee the Dolphins are going to employ, he should be avoided around this part of the draft. If he makes it to round eight or later, he starts to look pretty attractive, but this feels like a situation where Gaskin will continue to fall. Pass for now.
Mike Williams
Williams is dropping due to injury. He has been sidelined with a hip flexor. His ADP has fallen back to 75.2. In this case, it is worth buying the dip. Injuries are always worrisome, but there has been little indication of concern that the hip will keep Williams out too long. A couple of weeks back, I wrote about how the Chargers offense could be key to winning your league. Williams is one of the highest upside targets, making him a strong pick and top target in the seventh round.
best passing offense in the NFL?
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 17, 2021
Brandon Staley thinks it’ll be the Chargers pic.twitter.com/u5x9MhZyn6
Mid-Round (100-150 ADP) Risers
Terrace Marshall was featured here last week and remains a strong target despite the rising ADP (122.5).
Justin Fields is a fascinating player. He likely will not be the Week 1 starter, so you are wasting a roster spot on him early in the season. However, his fantasy upside is undeniable. If you can pair Fields with a safer option you can start early in the season, Fields could be a league winner down the stretch.
Marquez Callaway was listed as one of our top targets last week. His ADP has continued to rise quickly. He has gone from an ADP of 154 last week to 134 this week. There have been glowing reports when it comes to what he has done in training camp. It is easy to get excited about Callaway’s early-season potential. He remains a strong target in this part of the draft. However, it has not been uncommon to see Callway drafted in the Top 100 the last few days. He starts to look like a fade at that price, especially since Michael Thomas is reportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery.
The Saints' star receiver Michael Thomas is quickly recovering from his ankle surgery and recently had a chance to visit the rest of the team. Read about his plans for the upcoming season below: https://t.co/SwwPEh9ehB
— NOLA.com (@NOLAnews) August 16, 2021
Marvin Jones is now knocking on the door of the Top 100 (104.2 ADP). He is an unexciting pick compared to some of the talented younger players being drafted in this range. However, when you think about both his floor and ceiling in this Jaguars passing offense, he compares favorably in both categories. If you buy into the idea of Trevor Lawrence hitting the ground running, Jones is the best value option amongst his pass catchers.
Mid-Round (ADP 100-150) Fallers
Many of the mid-round ADP drops are injury related. Rashod Bateman underwent surgery for a torn groin and is expected to miss multiple weeks to start the regular season. He is also missing important reps. Marquise Brown has also been sidelined for the Ravens. DeVante Parker has been sidelined for nearly all of training camp for the Dolphins. While the injury is nothing serious, it feels like the continuation of a trend for Parker.
TreQuan Smith and Adam Trautman have each slid some in drafts. Smith only recently returned to practice and has been leapfrogged by Callaway. At the same time, Trautman left the field on some third downs in the preseason opener, which raises concerns about his potential usage.
This feels like an opportunity to buy low on Joe Burrow, whose ADP has fallen to 118.6. His fall is based on reports he struggled early in camp. He has turned it around over the past week and a half, however. It is worth remembering why Burrow was flirting with the Top 100 in the first place. He led the NFL in passing attempts at the midway point of his rookie season. He also has a potentially elite group of weapons to throw to. Burrow was very honest and open about struggling early in camp, so it is worth listening when he talks of his current state of mind and play.
Joe Burrow: "Back to my old self."
— Jeremy Rauch (@FOX19Jeremy) August 18, 2021
The #Bengals QB was very matter of fact today in stating that it took 10 practices. Now he's good to go. @fox19 pic.twitter.com/QnIzuRX5OP
Late-Round (Outside Top 150) Risers
Almost all of the late-round movement looks to be based upon preseason action. Malcolm Brown received the start for the Dolphins. Is he going to make a fantasy impact, or will he play spoiler? If his ADP (189.2) remains this low, it is worth rolling the dice to find out. K.J. Hamler (179.6) caught a long touchdown in the preseason opener. There are many mouths to feed in Denver, but Hamler is an intriguing best ball option. He is going to get his yardage in chunks, which should lead to some big games. The demise of Zach Ertz (191.2) has been greatly exaggerated. He led the Eagles starters in targets in the preseason opener. Amon-Ra St. Brown (157.7) was highlighted as a prime target here last week. His ADP has risen 10 spots since. It should probably rise another 10 spots. Damien Williams (163.6) showed some juice in the preseason opener. Be careful here because rookie Khalil Herbert also looked good, and this could be a committee if something happens to David Montgomery.
Phillip Lindsay has seen his ADP rise rapidly from 185.7 last week to 163 this week. He belongs in the Top 150, making him a bargain even at this rising ADP. He looks like the starter in Houston. While game scripts may not be in his favor, the rushing ability of Tyrod Taylor should help keep defenses honest and increase Lindsay’s efficiency. If you believe he will be the starter, he is far and away the cheapest starting back in the league right now.
Texans starters played 10 snaps last night. Phillip Lindsay out-snapped David Johnson 8-2. All of Lindsay's snaps came on first or second down. Both of Johnson's snaps were third-and-short situations (one pass, one run). Lindsay had five carries to Johnson's one.
— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) August 15, 2021
Late-Round (Outside Top 150) Fallers
With every week that passes, it feels less and less likely Deshaun Watson will play this season. The odds of him playing seem slim enough that Watson is worth passing on even at his current ADP (205).
If we assume Watson is out, then why is Tyrod Taylor not a more popular final-round target? We know he has serious rushing upside. It is easy to imagine Taylor having a few big fantasy weeks that help your best ball teams.
