Don't Let 2020 Scare You Away From Mark Andrews

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It all starts with the best-laid plans. Mark Andrews entered 2020 as the consensus No. 4 tight end in pre-draft rankings. He was in a prime position to crack the elite tier after finishing 2019 in a tie with Darren Waller as TE5 at 13.8 PPR points per game. But even the best-laid plans can’t account for the unexpected.

What Went Wrong?

Following a breakout in 2019 that saw Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson break fantasy records, the community as a whole was ready to buy in. The team added J.K. Dobbins in the second round of the NFL Draft and looked to have a full complement of weapons. The pieces were in place for the offense to improve on its already great 2019. But those improvements didn't happen. The good news is we have a clear idea of what went wrong.

Offensive line play is difficult to value in fantasy football analysis. It isn't straightforward, and the focus is reading the tea leaves of depth charts at the fantasy positions. On March 10th, cornerstone guard Marshall Yanda announced his retirement after a Hall-of-Fame-caliber career. Yanda’s replacement, Ben Powers, struggled -- ProFootballFocus rated him as the 54th guard among qualifiers. For a unit that functions in tandem more than any position, replacing a Hall of Fame-caliber talent with a bottom-of-the-league talent ripples throughout the entire offense. The result clearly impacted Jackson and, by extension, his targets.

Across the board, the pressure statistics on Jackson increased, as evidenced below from Pro Football Reference:

The picture is clear. He had less time to throw and was hit more often. Unfortunately, the Ravens offense struggled for most of the season, attempting the same amount of passes (27 per game) with lowered efficiency across the board.

A Crossroads

Mark Andrews may have been the single most disappointing player in fantasy football for the first half of the season. The Ravens needed Andrews to stay in to pass block more often, and opposing defenses were able to frequently double-team Andrews on pass routes because they didn't need to commit as many pass rushers to rattle Jackson. As a result, Andrews lost a target per game (versus 2019), and his yards nearly halved.

The primary reason was predictability. The Ravens utilized heavy packages more than any team in the league due to their ability to run the ball combined with featuring one of the best blocking tight ends in Nick Boyle and one of the best fullbacks in Patrick Ricard. This frequently led to plays where only two receivers -- Andrews and Marquise Brown -- ran routes.

The 2019 Ravens took the league by storm with these packages due to Jackson’s rush ability. With defenses committing blitzes and spies to stop Jackson, Andrews could operate in a soft middle. In 2020, with Yanda removed and a stated intention to cut down on Jackson’s rushing to preserve health, defenses could effectively pressure while focusing coverage on the primary targets.

Necessity is the mother of innovation. Boyle suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9. Then, the team had a COVID-19 outbreak, which cost both Andrews and Jackson Week 12 against the Steelers. That loss saw the Ravens fall to 6-5 and playoff hopes dim. Something needed to change.

The Rebound

When Andrews made his return in Week 14, he stepped into a different offensive scheme. Two tight end sets wholly disappeared. While the Ravens ran 12-personnel (two tight ends - two wide receivers) on 15% of snaps before losing Boyle. After the injury, it dropped to 1%. In its place were more frequent three-wide receiver packages, a 10% increase. Despite deploying three wide receivers, the team fundamentally changed its offense. Jackson averaged 21 passes per game over the final seven weeks (down six from the start of the season), and the mobile quarterback averaged three more rushes per game.

Ordinarily, this would not be a situation that increases tight-end production. However, in reality, the shift required defenses to use more nickel packages, spreading the field and freeing Andrews to operate. His usage spiked by nearly two targets per game. Impressive on raw numbers but eye-opening given the decrease in overall volume.

In the first portion of the season, Andrews saw 22% of targets, but that increased to 35% after the philosophy changed. For context, Darren Waller saw 26% of the Raiders targets last season. After Boyle’s injury, Andrews averaged 14.3 PPR points per game, putting him in a tie with Mike Gesicki and Logan Thomas for third-best. The narrative paints Andrews 2020 as a disappointment, but looking at the whole season fails to acknowledge how valuable he was down the stretch, once offensive coordinator Greg Roman adapted.

2021 Outlook

Much of the narrative this offseason has been on the team’s addition of first-round receiver Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins in free agency to build up the wide receiver corps. A logical conclusion would be increased competition for targets and a decrease in fantasy production for Andrews. It is a familiar situation.

A fascinating parallel exists between Andrews' current situation and Darren Waller’s 2020 breakout. The Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards and signed Nelson Agholor in free agency, contributing to Darren Waller’s ADP landing at TE5 and 65th overall. Bateman is more likely to help focus defensive attention downfield -- away from Andrews -- than it will eat into Andrews' target share, just as Ruggs' addition did for Waller.

Most view T.J. Hockenson as the guy most likely to emerge as his team’s leading target and, in turn, as an elite fantasy producer. But Hockenson is a case study in the application of Andrews’ early-season struggles. Defensive focus is difficult for a tight end to beat consistently, and Hockenson will be the center of attention in Detroit. Nevertheless, Andrews has proven himself as a staple of the Ravens offense and finds himself positioned to duplicate Waller’s ascension to the top of the tight end leader board.

Projections and Stats

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