D.J. Moore Is on the Verge of Elite

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Let's start at the top. D.J. Moore had the 9th most receiving yards by a wide receiver last year, and he totaled eight games of 90-yards receiving or more. Only Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs had more. He finished sixth with 79.5 yards per game and second with 18.08 yards per catch among qualified wide receivers. He concluded the year with 1,193 yards on 66 catches and 4 touchdowns and was the only 1,000-yard wide receiver who didn't finish in the Top 20 (PPR scoring), finishing 7 yards shy of 1,200. From a high-level view, Moore sounds like an elite wide receiver. So what's missing?

What is the downside? Lack of consistent touchdown scoring is the biggest reason why he has not ascended into the elite tier. In three years in the league, D.J. Moore has 10 career touchdowns on 335 targets or one score every 33.5 targets. Let's compare that to other top wide receivers and those in his range. He is clearly behind his peers in this category.

• A.J. Brown one score every 10.0 targets
• Tyreek Hill 11.6
• Calvin Ridley 12.6
• DK Metcalf 13.4
• Davante Adams 13.6
• Chris Godwin 14.7
• Adam Thielen 14.8
• Mike Evans 15.4
• Cooper Kupp 17.2
• Stefon Diggs 18.4
• Diontae Johnson 19.6
• Michael Thomas 20.5
• Terry McLaurin 20.6
• Keenan Allen 21.7
• D.J. Moore 33.5

Of all the wide receivers with 1,000+ yards in 2020, DJ Moore had the lowest catch percentage with 55.9%. #FantasyFootball #NFLTwitter #Panthers pic.twitter.com/RAiXmbkUfC

— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) May 9, 2021

2020 Catch percentage by Panthers players (minimum of 2 targets per week)

• 84.3 - Mike Davis
• 79.4 - Curtis Samuel
• 69.3 - Robby Anderson
• 55.9 - D.J. Moore

Remember that Teddy Bridgewater was 5th in the NFL in 2020 with a 69.1% completion rate. So why did Moore struggle in this category? His career catch percentage is 62.1% which isn't that bad. Looking deeper, his true catch rate in 2020 was 75.9%.

True Catch Rate - The reception percentage that is based solely on catchable targets.

In other words, Moore had several uncatchable targets. Looking at the film, as well as evidenced by his career-high 18.08 yards per catch average, he didn't see many short targets. His average depth of target was 13.4 yards. Compare that with Curtis Samuel (7.2) and Robby Anderson (9.6). The longer the target, the lower the accuracy in reaching him. Moore had 26 deep targets - 6th most in the league last season. How will that change in 2021, where several factors will be different? Most notably, Sam Darnold will be under center, Christian McCaffrey will be back in the lineup, and the addition of rookie Terrace Marshall may put a new wrinkle in how Moore is used. Depending on how quickly Marshall becomes a relevant fixture of the offense, Moore's role may not change much. Last season his target share was 24.1% (18th best in the NFL). You may think that will drop off some in 2021 with the return of McCaffrey, but Moore's target share was 24.3% in 2019, which included a full season of McCaffrey.

Can he be a WR1?

Absolutely. He needs to find the end zone more frequently. Everything else is there. He should've scored more than four touchdowns in 2020. He led the team in red-zone targets with 10, including six inside the 10-yard line. He dropped a sure game-sealing touchdown in Week 12 against Minnesota, where he sprained his ankle on the cut and missed the next two weeks. Luckily, one of them was the Panthers bye week. The chances for reaching pay dirt are there; he didn't cash in. Often we see the law of averages catch up to a player. You may be more familiar with the term touchdown regression. Moore is due for a regression that would benefit him greatly from a fantasy standpoint and put him in the top 15 or 20 among fantasy wide receivers.

Moore is the only wide receiver with over 1,200 yards from scrimmage in each of the last two years. In his three years in the league, he has improved greatly as a route-runner. He knows how to bait corners into thinking he's running one route before making a sharp cut to reveal the true route. He is an excellent runner after the catch and rarely goes down after the first contact. Early in his career, he struggled with ball security issues, especially when gaining that extra yard. He has learned to keep the ball safe and take chances for extra yards when they are available. He may not have a high number of receptions, but he makes up for it with deeper routes and higher yardage numbers. The Panthers use a lot of shallow crosses in their offense where they can stretch the field horizontally. As a result, Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel benefited from short-intermediate routes while Moore frequently was a target behind the defense.

This video from football coach and analyst Casey Sully further explains Moore's elite skills. Be sure to check out his channel for more player breakdowns.

How will Sam Darnold's arrival impact Moore? Darnold is at his best when he can roll out and look downfield. This was an area where Teddy Bridgewater struggled, especially from an accuracy standpoint. Look for Carolina to continue to attack horizontally with run-pass options that allow Darnold to make the correct read for the open receiver. The presence of Matt Rhule's guidance and Joe Brady's play-calling will make Darnold a better quarterback and a better fit for the system the Panthers want to run. Another factor that aids in the potential success for Darnold is his increased level of confidence. Carolina hand-picked him to run their offense. Matt Rhule saw talent in him that he knows will translate into success. Why would he target him if that were not the case? The stars are aligned for him to thrive, and it could be significant.

D.J. Moore Stats

Footballguys Projections

Final Thoughts

Looking at D.J Moore's 2021 outlook (that includes an extra game in Week 18), the consensus predicts another 1,200-yard effort with 70-80 receptions and 5 touchdowns. If that touchdown number goes up, even slightly, his fantasy value, appeal, and production will follow. How many receivers with ten red zone targets score only once in those chances? Not many. We are entering the prime years of D.J. Moore's career, and it's entirely possible and plausible that his best years are yet to come.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com.

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