A.J. Brown: Efficient but Usage May be a Challenge

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A.J. Brown has been a pillar of efficiency over the last two seasons and enters 2021 with a higher ceiling than any wide receiver in the league. At just 23 years old, Brown sat well atop the pecking order for a Titans team that just lost Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith in free agency. Despite the Titans being the second-most run-heavy team over the last two years (behind only the Ravens), Brown still managed to post 15.5 PPR fantasy points on just 6.3 targets per game. He started his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and 19 touchdowns. He finished those campaigns ranked 21st and 12th in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Given those good-but-not-great finishes, why is Brown consistently being ranked in the Top 5 this preseason? The answer can be summed up in one word: Efficiency.

Through two seasons and on just 190 targets, Brown has averaged 17.4 yards per reception with a stellar 10% touchdown rate. In both seasons, Brown ranked No. 2 in fantasy points per route run. His low volume has been an impediment. Ian Hartitz illustrates what a star Brown can be when he gets more than eight targets:

A.J. Brown in six career games with more than eight targets:

10 rec-151 yards-1 TD
8-114-1
7-112-1
4-101-1
6-83-1
7-82-1

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 4, 2021

Does that mean that if Brown was force-fed nine-plus targets per game, we could slot him in for at least 119 receptions, 2,186 yards, and 17 touchdowns? Of course not. But it shows how dominant he can be when relied upon. Davis and Smith's departures free up 157 targets. Although the Titans brought in free agent Josh Reynolds from the Rams, they ignored the wide receiver position in the draft. Thus, the A.J. Brown Hype Train departed the station, packed to the brim with riders.

Fast forward two months as analysts produced countless “A.J. Brown could be the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver” articles.

Meanwhile, Brown spent his offseason on social media to lure Julio Jones to join him in Tennessee. Eventually, the Titans and Falcons agreed to send the 32-year-old superstar to the Titans in exchange for second- and fourth-round draft picks. Some analysts argued that this transaction benefited Brown. Others declared that it destroyed his value. While the truth lies somewhere in between, this appears to be a net neutral move for the third-year receiver.

Let’s take a quick look at both arguments.

The Negative Stance

Those vacated targets from Davis and Smith may have found a new home in Jones. Not only is Jones new to the roster, but Reynolds is still there. Jones commanded 7.6 targets per game last season. Reynolds was targeted 5.1 times. Additionally, 26-year-old pass-catching tight end Anthony Firkser has been drawing praise all offseason. The path for being a top-12 fantasy receiver seems bleak for Brown, a guy that just barely hit that mark last year. Derrick Henry carried the ball 378 times, and the Titans ran the ball on 51.8% of plays, third-most in the league. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill paces for 502 pass attempts per 17-game season since starting for the Titans. Brown has struggled with game-flow and snap share his entire career, and there’s no reason to expect change.

The Positive Stance

The transactions of signing Reynolds and trading for Jones show a commitment to the passing game. Jones will not only mentor Brown but will force defenses away from bracketing the young star regularly. Titans’ offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, who turned Henry into a workhorse, has left the Titans. Additionally, Henry’s coming off a 400-touch and 2,000-yard season, marks which have not fared well for running backs in the past. Since taking over as the starter in 2019, Tannehill has the best passer rating in the league. Given Brown’s absurd efficiency numbers, the Titans will have to make him an offensive focal point.

Which side is right?

What can be quickly deduced from these stats is that those who aren’t buying into the A.J. Brown hype are focused on the past, while Brown supporters turn their eyes to the future. Given his ability to score, generate yards after the catch, and make contested catches, it’s tough to ignore the upside even when considering his circumstances. Even though he was sidelined for two games, he still finished as the No. 12 fantasy receiver (PPR) and a more impressive sixth-best on a per-game basis. He ranked behind only: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, and DeAndre Hopkins. Interestingly enough, Ridley gave us a peek at what life for a young receiver could look like with and without Julio Jones last season.

Disregarding a Week 5 game against the Packers where Ridley and Jones were game-time decisions, Jones left early, and Ridley played a season-low in snaps, Ridley played in seven games with and without Jones. Here are Ridley’s splits in 2020:

While Ridley’s usage went down with Jones in the lineup, his efficiency jumped. Thinking that Brown could actually be more efficient in 2021 with the addition of Jones is mind-boggling. Averaging just 7.6 targets per outing last year, he finished with the sixth-most fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. If he could hold onto a similar workload while increasing his efficiency, being the No. 1 fantasy receiver isn’t out of the realm of possibility. However, there might be a chance he sees both a boost in productivity and increased volume.

Derrick Henry’s Cliff is Approaching

The 2,000-yard and 400-touch benchmarks for Derrick Henry were mentioned a bit earlier when highlighting the positives surrounding A.J. Brown. There is undoubtedly some superstition and talks of curses surrounding these benchmarks, but the heavy workload and extra hits could translate to a down year the following season. Of the last 26 players to reach the 400-touch mark, half of them played an entire season the following year, but one-fourth played eight or fewer games. Only 16 of those 26 players exceeded 300 touches in the next season. As for the 2,000-yard mark, those backs averaged three missed games and just 1,072 rushing yards in the subsequent year. No running back was able to eclipse 1,500 yards. Another big red flag is that Henry is the second-oldest of the seven backs to run for 2,000+ yards. Counting playoff games, Henry has rushed the ball 782 times over the last two seasons. Dalvin Cook is second with 599 carries.

Arthur Smith’s departure was also alluded to earlier. Before Smith’s role as offensive coordinator, Henry had never carried the ball more than 215 times in a season. Heading into Henry's third year, Arthur Smith was promoted to offensive coordinator, and Henry's usage skyrocketed. At 27 years old with a new, unproven coordinator, could his workload start trending back down?

And What About Julio Jones?

It’s easy to make a case for A.J. Brown and Julio Jones as the best wide receiver duo in the league. It would be crazy for the team not to give them a massive target share. The Titans acquired Jones knowing he's the second-most expensive receiver in the NFL, at $15.3 million.

Ryan Tannehill’s passer rating was briefly mentioned earlier. Still, few realize the huge leap the veteran quarterback made since departing the Miami Dolphins. Check out his per-17-game paces from his six years with the Dolphins and two with the Titans:

That looks like a comparison of two different players! Much like A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry, Tannehill’s efficiency in Tennessee has been elite. Having these four players together on the field together should be a nightmare for opposing teams. How it will translate into fantasy points is a bit tougher to decipher. Our projectors differ on Brown’s workload, with estimates ranging from 1,211 yards to 1,631 yards and 9.3 to 14.1 touchdowns. Everyone on staff projects Brown for less than 100 receptions.

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

Brown is not someone with a safe floor. He's a high-risk, high-upside early selection in the second round of most drafts. The hope is a fundamental change in the Titans’ offensive methodology leading to a usage rate more in line with his talents. Although A.J. Brown is ranked as the consensus No. 5 receiver, his polarization among fantasy players means that you’ll likely have to target him aggressively.

The term “always bet on talent” gets thrown around a lot, and it's advice worth heeding. A.J. Brown is arguably the best young receiver in the league. The idea of Julio Jones allowing softer coverage combined with a new coordinator pushing for an increased workload is the best-case outcome. It would lead Brown into a top-five year-end ranking. But if his target share remains stagnant, and the offense continues to revolve around Derrick Henry, he could fall well short of his current ADP.

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