We dropped our first set of projections a day after the NFL draft concluded, and have updated them countless times since. But as we enter the heart of the preseason, rankings and projections start to move more decisively with greater velocity and so this year I'll be providing a weekly look into how my projections are changing. A few things to keep in mind:
- This is a recap of a week's worth of changes, but we update projections in real time and you can always find live, up-to-date numbers here
- After 20+ years of providing rankings and projections, I've found that incremental movements are generally better than wholesale, reactionary moves
- This was an unusually quiet week by NFL standards, with no significant (i.e., season-threatening) injuries to fantasy-relevant players
- Expect subsequent updates to be more demonstrative, as camp battles clarify and injuries mount
- Many of the tweaks below pertain to players who aren't likely to be drafted in 10- or 12-team redraft leagues, but I felt it was important to show you the depth we provide in our analysis
Quarterback Ascenders
| Name | Team | Comp | Atts | % | YPA | Yds | TD | Int | Sack | Rush | RuYDs | YPR | RuTD | FBL | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | IND | 330 | 520 | 63.5% | 7.1 | 3,710 | 23 | 12 | 28 | 45 | 185 | 4.1 | 2 | 5 | 291 | Up 10% on speedier recovery |
A very quiet week for quarterbacks, which is a great thing. Wentz's projections actually bump up after a significant reduction last week when it seemed he might miss a bunch of regular-season games. His outlook has improved and could be back for Week 1.
Running Back Ascenders
| Name | Team | Rush | RuYDs | YPR | RuTD | FBL | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadree Ollison | ATL | 90 | 370 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 60.0% | 50 | 8.3 | - | 66 | Up 50%, emerging as No.2 |
| Zack Moss | BUF | 175 | 775 | 4.4 | 7 | 1 | 28 | 20 | 71.4% | 140 | 7.0 | 1 | 159 | +15 carries and small rec boost |
| Reggie Bonnafon | CAR | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | - | 0 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 20 | 5.0 | - | 14 | Up 50%, pushing for No.2 role versus Hubbard |
| Mark Ingram | HOU | 120 | 490 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | 66.7% | 100 | 8.3 | - | 100 | 4x increase, listed as co-starter on depth chart |
| Rex Burkhead | HOU | 30 | 120 | 4.0 | - | 0 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 25 | 8.3 | - | 18 | 50% increase, seems likely to make roster |
| Jake Funk | LAR | 40 | 160 | 4.0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% | 50 | 7.1 | - | 34 | Added projections, likely No.3 RB |
| Xavier Jones | LAR | 80 | 340 | 4.3 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 60.0% | 90 | 7.5 | - | 67 | Up 50%, settling into the No.2 role |
| Ty Johnson | NYJ | 80 | 325 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 12 | 66.7% | 75 | 6.3 | 1 | 76 | Up 40%, splitting 1st team reps |
| Boston Scott | PHI | 70 | 290 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2 | 32 | 22 | 68.8% | 195 | 8.9 | 2 | 99 | Up 20% on clear No.2 role |
Zach Moss is the only redraft-caliber running back on the list, and it's worth noting he missed this weekend's preseason game with a new injury. Keep an eye on Mark Ingram, who I assumed was the odd man out in Houston but was listed as the co-starter (alongside Phillip Lindsay) on the first depth chart.
Running Back Decliners
| Name | Team | Rush | RuYDs | YPR | RuTD | FBL | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | BUF | 145 | 650 | 4.5 | 3 | 1 | 53 | 38 | 71.7% | 260 | 6.8 | 1 | 152 | Minus 15 carries plus small rec reduction |
| David Johnson | HOU | 100 | 430 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1 | 42 | 30 | 71.4% | 250 | 8.3 | 1 | 121 | Down 40%, listed as No.3 on depth chart |
| Tevin Coleman | NYJ | 80 | 360 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% | 55 | 7.9 | - | 61 | Down 20%, looks more like No.3 or 4 |
| Lamical Perine | NYJ | 45 | 175 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | 45 | 6.4 | - | 35 | Down 50%, looks more like No.3 or 4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | - | 0 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 50 | 8.3 | - | 18 | Deep reduction, not emerging as threat for snaps |
David Johnson is the most significant mover as he was listed No. 3 on the Texans depth chart. Devin Singletary gets a modest decrease given how much better Zach Moss has looked in camp.
Tight End Ascenders
| Name | Team | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hollister | BUF | 33 | 21 | 63.6% | 190 | 9.0 | 2 | 52 | 50% bump on good start to camp, could push Knox |
| Kahale Warring | HOU | 30 | 21 | 70.0% | 215 | 10.2 | 2 | 55 | Bumped to reflect No.2 position on depth chart |
| Irv Smith | MIN | 74 | 56 | 75.7% | 645 | 11.5 | 6 | 157 | Up 5% on strong camp |
| Tyler Kroft | NYJ | 30 | 20 | 66.7% | 150 | 7.5 | - | 35 | 10x increase, pushing Herndon for snaps |
Irv Smith only gets a 5% increase, but that's enough to vault him up a few rounds as a clear-cut Top 10 fantasy option.
Tight End Descenders
| Name | Team | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Smythe | MIA | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 40 | 8.0 | - | 9 | Down 50%, readjusting roles on camp news |
| Hunter Henry | NE | 80 | 52 | 65.0% | 600 | 11.5 | 5 | 142 | Shoulder injury could last into regular season |
Smythe doesn't appear to have much of a role in Miami, particularly as the Dolphins receiving corps looks to roll five or six deep. The bigger news is Hunter Henry's injury, which will cost him regular season time, most likely.
Wide Receiver Ascenders
| Name | Team | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | CHI | 20 | 11 | 55.0% | 150 | 13.6 | 1 | 32 | Earning a rotational role |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | 30 | 18 | 60.0% | 290 | 16.1 | 3 | 65 | Significant boost, clear-cut No.4 with track for higher |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 54 | 27 | 50.0% | 355 | 13.1 | 4 | 87 | Up 50%, appears to have edge on No.2 starting role |
| Michael Pittman | IND | 88 | 57 | 64.8% | 725 | 12.7 | 5 | 163 | Modest boost with Wentz' timeline improving |
| Laquon Treadwell | JAX | 9 | 6 | 66.7% | 105 | 17.5 | 1 | 23 | Added projections, likely makes team |
| Laviska Shenault Jr | JAX | 119 | 76 | 63.9% | 850 | 11.2 | 4 | 198 | Up 10% on strong offseason, Chark injury |
| Bryan Edwards | LV | 75 | 45 | 60.0% | 595 | 13.2 | 4 | 129 | Up 50%, has been running with 1s from camp start |
| Albert Wilson | MIA | 56 | 36 | 64.3% | 425 | 11.8 | 3 | 97 | Significant bump, looks great in camp |
| Dede Westbrook | MIN | 20 | 12 | 60.0% | 140 | 11.7 | 1 | 32 | Added projections, likely No.4 receiver |
| Chris Hogan | NO | 38 | 21 | 55.3% | 235 | 11.2 | 1 | 51 | Added projections, likely makes team |
| Marquez Callaway | NO | 72 | 50 | 69.4% | 680 | 13.6 | 4 | 142 | Up 50% on strong camp, Thomas injury |
| Keelan Cole | NYJ | 72 | 41 | 56.9% | 535 | 13.0 | 3 | 113 | Up 20% on strong start to camp |
| Quez Watkins | PHI | 26 | 13 | 50.0% | 240 | 18.5 | 2 | 49 | Major increase, has been 2nd best WR in camp |
| Mohamed Sanu | SF | 24 | 15 | 62.5% | 160 | 10.7 | 1 | 37 | Added projections,likely makes team |
| Trent Sherfield | SF | 14 | 8 | 57.1% | 110 | 13.8 | 1 | 25 | Added projections,likely makes team |
By far the most significant position for updates this week. Nico Collins looks the part in Houston, but the surrounding cast and uncertainty at quarterback warrants an incremental approach. Bryan Edwards was a forgotten man after a lost rookie season, but he's been the best receiver in Raiders camp, clearly outperforming Henry Ruggs and John Brown. Chris Hogan is a name we'd almost forgotten, but the Saints are decimated with injuries and Hogan is the second-most targeted receiver in Saints camp. The most targeted (and best-performing) receiver in Saints camp is Marquez Callaway. We can't rule out Callaway as the team's No. 1 receiver.
Wide Receiver Descenders
| Name | Team | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | 63 | 42 | 66.7% | 575 | 13.7 | 4 | 124 | Week to week with groin injury |
| Chris Conley | HOU | 45 | 28 | 62.2% | 350 | 12.5 | 1 | 69 | Reduced as offset to Nico Collins ascending |
| Anthony Miller | HOU | 45 | 28 | 62.2% | 325 | 11.6 | 2 | 73 | Reduced as offset to Nico Collins ascending |
| D.J. Chark | JAX | 108 | 62 | 57.4% | 820 | 13.2 | 5 | 174 | Down 10% for broken hand, general durability/role |
| Phillip Dorsett | JAX | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 15 | 15.0 | - | 3 | Down 90%, unlikely to make 53-man |
| Collin Johnson | JAX | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 25 | 12.5 | - | 5 | Down 90%, unlikely to make 53-man |
| John Brown | LV | 50 | 28 | 56.0% | 410 | 14.6 | 3 | 87 | Down 33%, has been running with 2s entire camp |
| Chad Beebe | MIN | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 20 | 10.0 | - | 4 | Down 90%, unlikely to make 53-man |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 100 | 77 | 77.0% | 930 | 12.1 | 5 | 200 | Marked down for six games missed (PUP) |
| Denzel Mims | NYJ | 33 | 17 | 51.5% | 240 | 14.1 | 1 | 47 | Down 50%, struggling to find a role |
| Jalen Reagor | PHI | 80 | 44 | 55.0% | 595 | 13.5 | 3 | 125 | Down 20%, draft pedigree only gets you so far |
| Greg Ward | PHI | 30 | 18 | 60.0% | 185 | 10.3 | 1 | 44 | Down 25%, Quez Watkins pushing for major role |
| Jalen Hurd | SF | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 20 | 10.0 | - | 4 | Down 90%, unlikely to make 53-man |
Rashod Bateman is going to miss regular-season time, which is particularly damning as a rookie because he won't be able to learn the offense and build chemistry with Lamar Jackson. Michael Thomas' season could be lost depending on whether he really buried the hatchet with head coach Sean Payton this week, as was reported. Jalen Reagor isn't bouncing back as Eagles fans hoped; he's been outdone by Quez Watkins.
Below the Radar Adjustments
These players are end of the roster players, by and large. Their projected stats are marginal but are being included for completeness.
Players Added to the Projections Database
| Action | Player | Team | Pos | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Added | Brandon Zylstra | CAR | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Cam Sims | WAS | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Damiere Byrd | CHI | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Dare Ogunbowale | JAX | RB | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Devonta Freeman | NO | RB | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Diontae Spencer | DEN | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Gerrid Doaks | MIA | RB | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Isaiah McKenzie | BUF | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Ito Smith | ARI | RB | Signed in August |
| Added | J.P. Holtz | CHI | TE | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Jake Kumerow | BUF | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Jaret Patterson | WAS | RB | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Jason Huntley | PHI | RB | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Jesse James | CHI | TE | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Jody Fortson | KC | TE | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | Converted WR is clear No.3 TE |
| Added | Juwan Winfree | GB | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Kalen Ballage | PIT | RB | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Matt Barkley | TEN | QB | Newly signed, likely No.2 |
| Added | Pharoah Brown | HOU | TE | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Racey McMath | TEN | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Shi Smith | CAR | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Temmarick Hemingway | WAS | TE | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Tommy Hudson | TEN | TE | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Trent Taylor | CIN | WR | Projected to make 53-man roster |
| Added | Tyree Jackson | PHI | TE | Projected to make 53-man roster |
Players Zeroed Out
| Action | Player | Team | Pos | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeroed | Bisi Johnson | MIN | WR | IR with knee injury |
| Zeroed | Caleb Wilson | PHI | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Cameron Batson | TEN | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Cethan Carter | MIA | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Dalton Keane | NE | TE | IR with knee injury |
| Zeroed | Devine Ozigbo | JAX | RB | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Equanimeous St. Brown | GB | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Garrett Griffin | NO | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Isaiah Hodgins | BUF | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Jaeden Graham | ATL | TE | IR with knee injury |
| Zeroed | Jakob Johnson | NE | RB | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Jared Pinkney | TEN | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Jason Croom | PHI | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Jaylen Samuels | PIT | RB | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Jordan Howard | PHI | RB | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Keith Kirkwood | CAR | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Kelvin Benjamin | NYG | TE | Cut on first day of camp |
| Zeroed | Kelvin Harmon | WAS | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Kenny Yeboah | NYJ | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Lamar Miller | WAS | RB | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Levine Toilolo | NYG | TE | IR with torn Achilles |
| Zeroed | Logan Woodside | TEN | QB | Losing No.2 battle to M. Barkley |
| Zeroed | Malik Taylor | GB | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Marquez Stevenson | BUF | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Nick Keizer | KC | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Patrick Laird | MIA | RB | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Riley Ridley | CHI | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Rodney Smith | CAR | RB | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Ryan Izzo | HOU | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Sammis Reyes | WAS | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Seth Roberts | CAR | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Seth Williams | DEN | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Stanley Morgan Jr | CIN | WR | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
| Zeroed | Tim Tebow | JAX | TE | Not projected to make 53-man roster |
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at wood@footballguys.com.
