#Trendspotting: Week 9

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the midway point of the 2020 season, let's dig into a variety of trends across the league. With this broader and more in-depth iteration of #Trendspotting, we will primarily focus on season-long formats as we decipher which trends that developed throughout the first seven weeks are here to stay in the long-term.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Strength vs. Weakness
• Tweets of the Week

Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write. I will be sure to send a tweet when Looks Can Be Deceiving is added into this article on Thursday.

STRENGTH vs. WEAKNESS

PASS FUNNELS

Defenses

• Seattle Seahawks defense
  • 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game
  • 27th in the NFL in net yards per attempt allowed
  • 9th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game
  • 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt allowed
• New York Jets defense
  • 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game
  • 28th in the NFL in net yards per attempt allowed
  • 13th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game
  • 10th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt allowed

Offenses

• Buffalo Bills offense
  
  • 10th in the NFL in passing yards per game
  • 10th in the NFL in percent of total yardage coming via the pass
  • 10th in the NFL in net yards per attempt
• New England offense
  
  • 30th in the NFL in passing yards per game
  • 31st in the NFL in percent of total yardage coming via the pass
  • 20th in the NFL in net yards per attempt

Commentary

• The Seattle Seahawks' defense ranks amongst the league's best run defenses, both in terms of per-carry efficiency marks allowed and raw yardage allowed on the ground this year. However, their pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL, ranking in the bottom-six of the league in net yards per attempt and total passing yardage allowed per game.
• The New York Jets' defense is a moderate funnel, checking in around the top-third of the league in run defense this season, but their pass defense is horrific. The Jets' secondary ranks in the bottom-five of the NFL in pass defense thus far in 2020.

Action Items

• Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are poised to have a field day against Seattle's underwhelming pass defense this weekend. The Bills run the NFL's most pass-happy offensive attack, and against a struggling secondary like that of the Seahawks, their efficiency totals stand to skyrocket this weekend. Despite underperforming in recent weeks, Buffalo's pass offense remains one of the NFL's most dangerous. Stefon Diggs regularly commands double-digit targets on the outside, with Cole Beasley complementing him in the slot. Additionally, John Brown returned to action last week to bring a much-needed deep threat back into the offense for Josh Allen to take full advantage of. Look for Josh Allen to light the world on fire in a shootout of MVP candidate quarterbacks-- although Allen is now a longshot after a few mediocre performances in recent weeks. Consider building DFS lineups around Allen in all formats, and lock him into starting lineups in season-long leagues. Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley all make for strong options to pair with Allen in GPPs, as a Buffalo stack projects to be one of the best on the slate.
• New England's offense, especially their passing offense, has been extremely disappointing after a strong start to the season. This week, a Monday night matchup with the New York Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get this team back on track. Considering this game is on the primetime slate of games in DFS, the Patriots will likely be popular options in all formats. However, their rushing attack will likely garner most of the attention. Consider stacking the Patriots' passing attack in GPPs on the primetime slate of games. Jakobi Meyers, a preseason standout of yesteryear, is the team's most reliable pass-catcher, and he should be a centerpiece of Patriots stacks. Elsewhere, consider rostering James White, the team's premier pass-catching running back, or Damiere Byrd, a wide receiver that rarely leaves the field, alongside Cam Newton on the short slate.

THE RUN WAS ESTABLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF

Defenses

• New England Patriots defense
  • Allows 39.3% of total yardage via the rush; 28th in the league
• Detroit Lions defense
  
  • Allows 34.4% of total yardage via the rush; 21st in the league
• Chicago Bears defense
  • Allows 34.4% of total yardage via the rush; 22nd in the league
• Dallas Cowboys defense
  • Allows 44.4% of total yardage via the rush; 32nd in the league

Offenses

• New York Jets offense
  • Gains 39.8% of total yardage via the rush; 4th-most in the league
• Minnesota Vikings offense
  • Gains 39.2% of total yardage via the rush; 5th-most in the league
• Tennessee Titans offense
  • Gains 38.2% of total yardage via the rush; 7th-most in the league
• Pittsburgh Steelers offense
  • Gains 34.8% of total yardage via the rush; 9th-most in the league

Commentary

• The New York Jets gain nearly 40-percent of their total yardage on the ground; this is more of an indictment on their horrific passing attack. Despite a matchup against New England's susceptible run defense, this should be ignored.
• Minnesota's run-heavy offense also gains nearly 40-percent of their total. This week, they take on a Detroit Lions' run defense that ranks 21st in the NFL in terms of the share of total yardage they have allowed the ground.
• Tennessee's rushing attack has long been the focal point of their offense. The Titans gain approximately 38-percent of their total offense on the ground, and this weekend they face off with a Chicago Bears' defense that allows 34.4-percent of total yardage on the ground, good for 22nd in the league.
• Pittsburgh's undefeated start has featured a blast-from-the-past through 8 weeks, as they gain almost 35-percent of their total yardage on the ground. This weekend they go up against the Dallas Cowboys, who have allowed nearly 45-percent of total yardage to opposing run games, the worst mark in the league.

Action Items

• Dalvin Cook is shaping up to be the best performer of all running backs in action this weekend. On the heels of a remarkable 50-point outing against the Green Bay Packers, Cook gets another soft matchup against the Detroit Lions here in Week 9, and all signs point to him making the most of this opportunity. Build all cash-game lineups around Dalvin Cook this weekend in DFS and consider him a building block for GPP teams. For additional analysis on Dalvin Cook and why he is such a strong DFS option this weekend, see The Sharp Report, where he is featured as the Projected Sharp Play of the week.
• Derrick Henry is known for his remarkable improvement as the season wears on into the later weeks. After what some may categorize as an underwhelming start to the season given the wild expectations, with 4 sub-20-point performances through 7 outings, Henry is primed to erupt after crossing the halfway mark of the 2020 campaign. This weekend, a subtly-strong matchup against the Chicago Bears' run defense could be the perfect opportunity to roster get leverage against the field in GPPs. Look to Henry as one of the best GPP options on the slate this weekend at running back. He will likely fly under the radar in what appears to be a difficult matchup, but that has not stopped Henry in the past. Should his percent-rostered mark stay below 10-to-15-percent, this is an excellent opportunity to get exposure to one of the highest-ceiling players on the slate when the rest of the field wrongfully steers clear of him.
• It is no secret at this point that Dallas' defense is one to target in all formats of fantasy football. Their horrific run defense and front-seven have fostered a fantasy-friendly environment for opposing running backs all season, and Week 9 will be no different. Do not overthink this one: look to James Conner as a cash-game option in DFS this weekend and lock him into all season-long lineups. He will likely be an extremely GPP option, and his viability in this format is entirely dependent upon how popular he projects to be. For more insight on this front, I recommend reading John Lee's Tips and Picks article, which is typically posted by Saturday afternoon, where he analyzes GPP options with the popularity of each player included in the context of individual analysis.

Tweets of the Week

Gus Edwards - league-wide rank among RBs in Efficiency each year of his career via @NextGenStats:

- 2020: 3.09 (2nd)
- 2019: 2.93 (1st)
- 2018: 2.78 (1st)

J.K. Dobbins is the better back, but Edwards is still good.

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 4, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• There is no doubt that the Baltimore Ravens drafted J.K. Dobbins in the second round of the NFL Draft with the intention of making him their feature-back down the line. The Ravens are generally a very sharp team and, although the selection is puzzling, they certainly understand that a player drafted within the top-60 of the draft can only provide value to the team when he is on the field. His numbers through the midway point in his rookie campaign are undoubtedly impressive. However, Gus Edwards' presence in Baltimore's backfield, regardless of Mark Ingram's status, will limit Dobbins' ceiling of production. Edwards, much like Dobbins, is an exceptionally efficient ball-carrier, especially when going north-and-south, which is what Baltimore's offense typically asks from him. Pump the breaks on the J.K. Dobbins hype train for the time being, as Gus Edwards' impressive metrics will keep him in the mix, regardless of how good Dobbins is when he is on the field. Barring another injury in the Ravens' backfield to a non-Dobbins player, the rookie's upside and weekly value is as a flex option in season-long formats, at best.

Marquise Brown has seen 16 targets 20+ yards downfield this season.

Only 5 have been catchable.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 4, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Did you really think there would be an edition of #Trendspotting that did not harp on the fact that Marquise "Hollywood" Brown has been perhaps the unluckiest wide receiver in the NFL this season? I realize that this is a sinking ship, but I am willing to go down with it. Brown is undeniably Baltimore's number-one pass-catcher on the outside. His market share of both targets and air yards within this offense remain at elite levels. Unfortunately, as Jared Smola noted this week, Marquise Brown has been staggering unlucky with regard to the quality of passes headed his way. Lamar Jackson will need to raise his level of play for Baltimore to contend for the AFC North title this season, and if that happens, Brown remains poised for a breakout second half of the season. Hollywood Brown is still one of the premier buy-low options in the NFL at wide receiver. On the bright side, his price has dropped significantly since I first highlighted the room for improvement in his production. However, time is running out for the second-year player to convert this opportunity into production. I have faith in the combination of opportunity and talent prevailing in this situation, but if it does not, this could be the egg on my face this season.

% of carries to gain positive yardage...

Phillip Lindsay 82.2%
Melvin Gordon 73.3%

Gain 5+ yards...

Lindsay 44.4%
Gordon 32.2%

10+ yards...

Lindsay 17.8%
Gordon 12.2%

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 2, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Phillip Lindsay's remarkable efficiency from his unexpectedly-strong rookie campaign has carried over into 2020. Unfortunately, this offseason, the Denver Broncos, opted to pay Melvin Gordon to come to town as the team's new lead-back. Gordon's efficiency numbers have waned in recent years. Last year, a similar dynamic played out in Los Angeles, where Gordon saw the majority of the action while Austin Ekeler was the more efficient back that was relegated to second-fiddle upon Gordon's return. Now, in Denver, Gordon remains the second-best rushing option available to Vic Fangio and the Broncos. However, Gordon's reputation, paired with the steep price that Denver paid to bring him into town, has made him the number one option in the team's backfield by default. Despite Phillip Lindsay's superior efficiency totals, Denver's old-school coaching staff and front office seem insistent upon making Melvin Gordon the top-dog in their backfield. In this case, however, Lindsay's asking price on the trade market in most season-long leagues is far lower than other comparable options. Consider making an effort to acquire the efficient second-year running back as a potential league-winning option down the stretch this season if Melvin Gordon misses any time. If Gordon remains on the field for the duration of the 2020 campaign without missing any time, Lindsay's upside is likely as a borderline-startable flex option.

Mike Evans in four games without Chris Godwin this year:

7/104/1
7/122/1
5/41/1
5/55/1
(34 targets)
* 20.1 fantasy points per game

Four games with Godwin:

1/2/1
2/2/2
1/10
2/37
(12 targets)
* 7.3 FPG

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 3, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Mike Evans' 2020 production has been underwhelming. Unfortunately, the outlook is becoming increasingly bleak for him this year, given the development of Tampa Bay's passing attack. As Graham Barfield noted, Evans is an afterthought for Tom Brady when Chris Godwin, one of the league's best wide receivers, is on the field. Godwin is slated to return to action shortly, which alone damages Mike Evans' fantasy value, but that's not the end of the bad news for Evans. The rejuvenation of Rob Gronkowski as a reliable pass-catcher and elite red-zone target will lessen Evans' touchdown equity when the Buccaneers approach the endzone. Additionally, the imminent inclusion of Antonio Brown only stands to eat into Evans' target share even more. Consider parting ways with Mike Evans via trade in all season-long formats before the return of Chris Godwin and the addition of Antonio Brown in Tampa Bay's passing attack exacerbate Evans' drop-off in receiving volume and production.