For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
GAME SELECTION: GPPs. [Adapted from 2020 Tips and Picks, Conference Championship] If you are a regular reader of this column or follow me on Twitter, you are well aware that I am a big advocate of playing DFS on the largest slate possible. A lesser number of games increases overlap because there are not enough player choices for lesser-skilled players to make mistakes. As a result, cash games are almost unwinnable over the long-term and I will never play (or advocate you playing) cash games on two-game slates. That leaves GPPs and alternative game formats (i.e., "Showdown Captain," and "Tiers"). Typically, I would advise you not to play DFS on a two-game slate for the same reasons I already explained for avoiding cash games; however, the NFL playoffs are a special time of year and I make an exception for Conference Championship weekend because it is the last day of multi-game (NFL) DFS until next September. My advice for this weekend is to find single-entry games on DraftKings by filtering on the "tournaments" tab on the left side of the homepage and subsequently entering "single" into the search bar (just above the 'tournaments' tab); from there, you should be able to choose from approximately nine different single-entry tournaments, ranging from a $1 buy-in up to $1,500. By focusing on single-entry tournaments, you are avoiding competing against other DFS players who cast a wider net by playing anywhere from 20 to 150 entries in the same tournament; on a two-game slate, it becomes prohibitively difficult to compete against those mass multi-entry players, which is what makes playing single-entry tournaments so attractive. From there, build your roster with the knowledge that you will need to hit on every player and that there will likely be a low-rostered (< 15% in this case) player who scores and will be needed to win. Read below ("Picks" Section) to see who I will be targeting in these types of games.
GAME SELECTION: SHOWDOWN CONTESTS. By now, you are likely aware of DraftKings' so-called 'Showdown: Captain Mode' contest format that has caught fire for single-games. The appeal of this format is that even the most casual of player can quickly put together a roster and have stake in the game (just ask my better half). If you are not already familiar with this style of contest, here is a quick summary: All players are chosen from a single game (including kickers and defenses) and one of those players is your "Captain," who costs 1.5-times as much as he would if you rostered him in a non-Captain slot; the reward for paying 1.5-times as much for this player is that he returns 1.5-times his true fantasy output (assuming he were otherwise in a non-Captain slot). Just like a standard contest, you start with a $50K salary cap and draft the best roster possible. If you want to play cash games this weekend, my recommendation is that you do it in this kind of contest because I think that there is still a slight edge to be had for those who build their rosters intelligently. For cash games, you will want to do everything possible to get both quarterbacks into your lineup and slot in players around them that you think have solid scoring floors. Because so many casual players enter these contests, building your rosters this way might yield the best edge possible on a short two-game slate. For playing this style of contest in tournament formats, you need to script the game in your head and build your roster accordingly, while focusing on trying to identify that one cheap sleeper who has the ability to surprise with a touchdown--my favorites for each team this weekend are as follows: Buccaneers--Tyler Johnson, $800...Packers--Jamaal Williams, $2.2K...Bills--Dawson Knox, $4.4K...Chiefs--Demarcus Robinson, $1.8K. There are two large $10 buy-in contests this week; for the early game, the first-place payout is $100K and the late game has a considerable $300K first-place prize.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend.
QUARTERBACKS
Offered up as proof that the NFL is a quarterback league, we have four of the best quarterbacks in the NFL vying for a chance to appear in the Super Bowl. Brady versus Rodgers and Allen versus Mahomes arguably offers the best quarterback pairings of the past several years for Conference Championship weekend. Patrick Mahomes II, who cleared concussion protocol on Friday is the most expensive option at $7.6K and Tom Brady, a nine-time Super Bowl participant, is the cheapest at $6.1K. Starting with the early game at Lambeau, Aaron Rodgers is most certainly in play against the Bucs' stingy rush defense (1st DVOA) that tends to funnel action through the air. The aforementioned Brady, however, looks like the better option simply due to the breadth of talent on his offense and his ability to deliver when the season is on the line; with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski at his disposal, Tom Brady can easily avoid Jaire Alexander's coverage and still find an excellent receiver.
At Arrowhead, it's a matchup of some of the elite young quarterbacks in the league: Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen. Mahomes needs no justification in fantasy circles after finishing as the highest scoring quarterback in back-to-back years. He is, however, coming off a concussion last Sunday and could be expected to be less mobile against the Bills, a facet of his game that has historically enabled him to generate yardage out of nothing. Josh Allen delivered on his first-round draft pick expectations this season by completing almost 70% of his completions, a statistic that no doubt stems from signing Stefon Diggs in the off-season. With eight rushing touchdowns this season, Allen carries as much upside as any quarterback on this limited slate.
VERDICT: Of the four quarterback options, Tom Brady is my favorite option because of the depth of talent in his receiving corps, his low price, and his historical performance in January. If Brady is not to your liking, I like Josh Allen quite a bit in a likely shootout (that I think the Bills win) in Kansas City.
RUNNING BACKS
There is not much to like at the running back position this weekend and you should strongly considering using your flex spot for a receiver. In the early game, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams will have their work cut out for them against the league's best run defense that allowed only one 100-yard rusher across 18 games this season. Meanwhile, the committee-based approach out of Green Bay has killed much of the value for both Jones and Williams; between them, they have only two 100-yard games all season. Projected to be on nearly 80% of rosters, Aaron Jones is my fade of the week; if you want to roster a Packer running back, it should be Williams who will be rostered at a small fraction of the rate of Jones despite getting almost the same number of touches as Jones last weekend. For Tampa Bay, it's more of the same--Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II are expected to split the workload which makes it a guessing game as to whom will get the high-leverage redzone carries. Fournette is this author's preferred option given his involvement as a pass catcher and general productivity nearer the end of the season.
For the late game, Devin Singletary is a lock-and-load option against the Chiefs at a reasonble $4.5K salary. Singletary was somewhat disappointing in last week's game against the Ravens when it appeared that he would have the backfield to himself after Zack Moss was put on injured reserve the week prior with an ankle injury. But the Bills' gameplan became evident when they threw 19 times out of their first 20 plays; Singletary was an afterthought and finished with only 6.7 DK points despite being heavily rostered. Sharp players will go back to the well with Singletary against the Chiefs' 31st-ranked DVOA rush defense in a game where Sean McDermott wants to do anything but get into a passing contest against Patrick Mahomes II. As for the Chiefs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to make his return after missing a month with a hip injury; LeVeon Bell (knee) did not practice all week, which could elevate Edwards-Helaire's role, but it would not be surprising to see Andy Reid give Bell's touches to Darrel Williams, who looked strong averaging 6.0 yards per carry as the lead back last week against Cleveland.
VERDICT: It's Devin Singletary at the top with a distant second to next best option. Of that crew, Jamaal Williams is a decent contrarian option with redzone capabilities and Leonard Fournette has earned a chance to stay on the field with back-to-back 20+ DK point games entering this weekend.
WIDE RECEIVERS
With a pair of games with Vegas totals surpassing 50 points, the likelihood of wide receivers putting up points is substantial. In the early game, Davante Adams will look to take revenge against the Buccaneers who surprisingly handed him his worst (full) game of the season back in Week #6 when he finished with a meager 6/61/0 stat line. After watching Adams post a 9/66/1 line against Jalen Ramsey last weekend, there is little doubt that he could double those numbers against the Buccaneers at this point in the season. Allen Lazard is also in play from the slot against Sean Murphy-Bunting, who gives up at least five inches to Lazard which could be a boost to Lazard inside the redzone. As for the Bucs, look for Bruce Arians to scheme his receivers away from Jaire Alexander as much as possible. Antonio Brown will be inactive, which should mean that rookie Tyler Johnson is a sleeper candidate to deliver 4x upside; Johnson outsnapped Scott Miller at a 2:1 clip last week, indicating that he has overtaken him on the depth chart at a critical point in the season.
A week removed from implementing a pass-first gameplan against the Ravens, we might expect the Bills to try to slow down the game via the run to minimize Patrick Mahomes II from setting the pace in Kansas City. That may or may not work, but there is little doubt that Stefon Diggs merits consideration against the Chiefs after finishing as the third-highest scoring player at his position in 2020. Opposite Diggs, John Brown is healthy, trending positively, and brings big-play upside to your lineups. After Brown, however, there are questions as both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis are questionable to play; expect Beasley to play, but he may not be at 100%. For Kansas City, Tyreek will get a healthy dose of TreDavious White, but Hill is matchup-proof when Mahomes is under center. After "TyFreak," Sammy Watkins gets a chance at revenge against his former team and there is reason to give him attention after he averaged nearly 100 yards per game during last season's Chiefs' Super Bowl run. As a tournament flyer (i.e., Millionaire Maker), I like Demarcus Robinson because we should expect him to maintain the WR3 role after Sammy Watkins returns (thereby relegating Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman to their previously ancillary roles).
VERDICT: Lots of options this week--your flex position should reflect it. Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are the obvious options, but do not ignore Chris Godwin, Tyler Johnson, and Sammy Watkins. As tournament differentiators, give some attention to Tyler Johnson, Demarcus Robinson, and Allen Lazard.
TIGHT ENDS
The tight end position could be the point of differentiation in DFS contests on Sunday. With Travis Kelce expected to be on over half of lineups, there is real value in considering going with an alternative tight end; however, Kelce has scored 22+ DK points in 8 of his previous 9 games, which makes fading him a difficult proposition. In the Bay of Pigs matchup, there are actually three possibilities: Robert Tonyan Jr, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate. Tonyan has been an absolute redzone moster all season--only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, and Mike Evans have more receiving touchdowns than Tonyan. At only $3.6K against a defense that allowed the 10th most fantasy points to his position, Tonyan is one of the better options at his position. If anybody is playing a Tampa Bay tight end, it most likely will be Rob Gronkowski due sheerly to name recognition, but Cameron Brate has run more routes (32) than Gronk (28) over their previous two games and was the team's leading receiver in last week's win over the Saints. Brate is an excellent option for Showdown contests where differentiation is key.
In the late game, we have already made the case for Travis Kelce, but he will cost you at $8.0K. When these teams faced one another back in Week #5, Kelce tagged the Bills for 5 catches for 65 yards and a pair of touchdowns; there is no reason he cannot post similar numbers on Sunday against a Bills squad that allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. As a deep GPP flyer, Dawson Knox merits consideration but he is better suited for Showdown contests because the likelihood that he outscores the tight ends already mentioned is highly unlikely.
VERDICT: Travis Kelce is the play unless the opportunity cost is too high (i.e., you are rostering Equanimeous St. Brown in the same roster so as to get to Kelce's salary). Otherwise, Robert Tonyan Jr carries two-touchdown upside and is offered up at less than half of Kelce's salary and crowd exposure.
TEAM DEFENSES
As is typically the case at this point in the season, there is not much to like at the team defense position because quarterback play is generally solid and successful offenses tend to minimize turnovers. Vegas would have us believe that the Packers are the best option at home against Tampa Bay, who has the lowest implied team total of the four teams playing. That said, the Packers are the highest-priced defense on the slate and Tom Brady is not the type of quarterback who is prone to turning the ball over in big games. As for the Bucs defense, they are stalwarts against the Run, which should force the Packers to throw more often but Aaron Rodgers has thrown only 11 interceptions across his past ~ 50 games, so the upside for Tampa Bay appears to be equally limited. Turning to the late game, both defenses are intriguing for different reasons: the Bills will be the 'contrarian' defense on less than 20% of lineups and the Chiefs could be the most popular defense, likely because Josh Allen is the least talented (or proven) quarterback playing on Sunday.
VERDICT: The least inventive choice is to roll with the Chiefs at home against Josh Allen; if you do this, ensure that you go for the 'double-dip' with Tyreek Hill on the same roster in case rumors about him returning punts are realized on Sunday--if he were to return a punt for a touchdown, rosters with the Kansas City defense would immediately score 12 points. For my rosters, I will be taking the contrarian approach and spending down on the Bills, who I project to pull off the upset; fresh off concussion protocol, it would be surprising to see Mahomes taking any chances with his legs, which could create opportunities for Buffalo's underrated defense.
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