The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
OVERLAP
TEAM #1- 165.5 points - DID cash
TEAM #2- 149.08 points - did NOT cash
Mike Davis
Given Mike Davis' price in Week 5, one thing seems clear: the only people that are unaware of Mike Davis' fantasy value in Carolina's offense are the ones in charge of looking over the pricing algorithm at DraftKings each week. After a pair of starts posting at least 22.1 DraftKings points, Davis' price rose to just $6,400 ahead of last weekend's matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. Over the two preceding weeks, Mike Davis, Carolina's injury-replacement in the backfield, played no less than 71-percent of Carolina's offensive snaps, tallying 21 touches in each game. As mentioned last week, Davis' role in Carolina's passing game might be the most enticing feature of his game-- Davis has registered at least six targets in each of the four games that he has reached double-digit snaps this season. There was no reason to expect a change in his role in Joe Brady's offense last weekend, and he came through for the players who rostered him, posting 29.90 DraftKings points while appearing in 75-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Why Mike Davis?
- Davis is a bell-cow running back that remained inexplicably underpriced on DraftKings after a pair of standout performances.
- The underlying numbers behind Davis' impressive 2020 production prove this is sustainable-- he rarely leaves the field, runs the ball efficiently, and plays a significant role in the team's passing attack.
- Carolina's seventh-year running back was a favorite of John Lee's Tips and Picks article here at FootballGuys, where John noted Davis was one of the strongest cash-game running backs on the slate
- Davis was also a favorite of the FootballGuys' consensus projections last weekend, as he was the number-one running back according to the consensus h-value projections on the main slate of games.
Ezekiel Elliott
At the top-end of the player-pool at the running back position last weekend on DraftKings, Ezekiel Elliott jumped off the page as the number-one option to pay-up for on the main slate of games. Elliott's projections were so far ahead of comparable options on this slate that 87.5-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings plugged him into their respective lineups, even at $7,800. Over the first month of the season, the Dallas Cowboys consistently played from behind, thanks to a combination of horrid turnover luck and an underperforming defense. During this span, Elliott still managed to eclipse 21.5 DraftKings points in 3 out of 4 games. In Week 5, the Cowboys were expected to register their first comfortable victory of the season, as they entered this matchup with the New York Giants as eight-point favorites. Given this expected game-script, Ezekiel Elliott's expected rushing volume was higher than almost every other running back on the slate. Also, in turn, his potential to register his first 100-yard rushing day of the season was as high as it had been all season leading up to this point. Additionally, the Cowboys' feature-back has always played a sizable role in the team's aerial attack. Ezekiel Elliott averaged 7.5 targets-per-game and 11.3 DraftKings points-points-per-game through the air across Dallas' first 4 games, which provided an incredible floor of production, regardless of the game-script that played out. Overall, Elliott entered the week one of the league's premier bell-cow running backs, as he had played an average of 89-percent of Dallas' offensive snaps per game through the team's first four games. This remarkable combination of ball-carrying talent, secure playing time, expected rushing volume, and passing-game work made Zeke the clear-cut number-one running back option on the DraftKings main slate of games. Ultimately, Elliott scored 23.50 DraftKings points on 19 carries for 91 yards to go along with a pair of scores in a hard-fought and costly 37-34 victory over the New York Giants.
Why Ezekiel Elliott?
- Elliott's secure playing time and volume, both on the ground and through the air, provided an unmatched floor of production, regardless of how Dallas' Week 5 game with the New York Giants played out.
- In a quartet of suboptimal game-scripts, Zeke still managed to eclipse 21.5 DraftKings points in 3-out-of-4 games for Dallas. As eight-point favorites, Elliott's projected rushing volume was higher than any other running back on the DraftKings main slate of games in Week 5, according to the FootballGuys' consensus projections.
- Elliott was also noted as a cash-game option in John Lee's Tips and Picks article, along with the h-value scores calculated using the FootballGuys' consensus projections, which is easily viewable in our Single Lineup Builder each week.
Robby Anderson
Below, in bold and italics, is last week's analysis used to project Robby Anderson as the Sharp Play of the week
- This weekend, Robby Anderson and the Carolina Panthers have the privilege of taking on the Atlanta Falcons and their horrendous secondary. Through 4 games this season, the Atlanta Falcons rank amongst the five-worst teams in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed (32nd,) passing yards allowed (31st,) net-yards-per-pass-attempt allowed (29th,) and passing DVOA allowed (31st.) It is no secret that this defense is one to target in DFS, especially through the air. Unfortunately for the Atlanta Falcons, their outlook defensively got even worse on Monday night, as they lost starting safety Damontae Kazee for the season to a torn achilles. This weekend, Robby Anderson is the preferred option to utilize in DFS to take advantage of this soft matchup. Through 4 weeks, Anderson has commanded 8.5 targets-per-game and 24.1-percent of the total targets in Carolina's offense. Anderson's role in Carolina's offense this season is drastically different from his role in the New York Jets' offense throughout his first two NFL seasons. In New York, Anderson was a low-volume deep-threat that rarely accumulated targets in bunches, but gaining large chunks of yardage regularly on his receptions. Throughout his first two NFL seasons, Anderson was targeted over 15.2 yards downfield, on average. This season, in Carolina, Anderson has been targeted 9.1 yards downfield, on average. This shorter depth of target makes his increased volume more sustainable in an offense quarterbacked by Teddy Bridgewater, a generally risk-averse quarterback who tends to favor short underneath passes. This change in utilization for Anderson has accompanied a remarkable increase in efficiency, as he has produced approximately 2.86 receiving-yards-per-route-run this year, the 4th-highest mark in the NFL amongst players with 10+ targets. This weekend, at $5,900, Robby Anderson is primed for another strong performance in his new role in Carolina's offense, which is projected to score over 28 points against one of the league's worst pass defenses.
Robby Anderson made his way into 82.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings in Week 5. Anderson has emerged as Teddy Bridgewater's favorite target through the air this season, and Week 5 was no different when the fifth-year receiver out of Temple University hauled in 8 out of his 13 targets for 113 yards against the Atlanta Falcons, scoring 22.50 DraftKings points.
Why Robby Anderson?
- Anderson had an exceptionally soft matchup against the Atlanta Falcons' secondary, which had allowed 8 different players to record at least 88 receiving yards through the first 4 games of the season.
- Anderson's production this season in Carolina is far more sustainable than it had been in the past-- he has been deployed as a well-rounded receiving threat, not just a deep-threat like he was in New York.
- Anderson was noted as an elite cash-game play by John Lee's Tips and Picks article last weekend, and he was also the number-one wide receiver in h-value score, according to FootballGuys' consensus projections.
Following Julio Jones' reaggravation of a hamstring injury that sidelined him for the second half of Atlanta's Week 4 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Olamide Zaccheaus emerged as a potentially-viable bargain-bin wide receiver on the Week 5 main slate of games on DraftKings. Looking back one week further, to Week 3, Zaccheaus made his way onto the field early and often against the Chicago Bears, when he played 79-percent of Atlanta's offensive snaps, recording 6 targets, 4 receptions, and 41 receiving yards. Atlanta's second-year pass-catcher followed that up by capitalizing on an increased role in the passing attack against Green Bay, playing 76-percent of offensive snaps for the Falcons, hauling in 8 passes on 9 targets for 86 receiving yards. Despite this increased playing time and receiving volume, Zaccheaus remained at the minimum allowed price on DraftKings for Week 5, where he was only $3,000 at the wide receiver position. Following the late news that Julio Jones would miss this matchup with the Carolina Panthers' historically-young defense, Zaccheaus emerged as the go-to salary-saving option on the slate when he moved into the starting lineup. Overall, not much was expected from the youngster last weekend, but at such a remarkably low price, that was acceptable. A modest 9.0-point performance on DraftKings would have been enough for Zaccheaus to reach 3x value on the slate, and this level of salary relief was tough to come by elsewhere in the player pool. When the dust settled, Zaccheaus played 97-percent of Atlanta's offensive snaps but only managed to catch 1 of his 4 targets for 13 yards on the day, leaving much to be desired. Fortunately, as he was in 87.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, he did not tank the lineups of the majority of sharps that opted to plug him into their cash-game lineups. Although he did not produce as expected, I believe the process behind rostering Olamide Zaccheaus in cash-games last weekend was sharp, and the evidence proves that the majority of sharp NFL DFS players agree.
Why Olamide Zaccheaus?
- Zaccheaus, a min-priced player on the DraftKings main slate, moved into the Falcons' starting lineup after Julio Jones was officially ruled out with a hamstring injury last weekend.
- Zaccheaus had already seen an uptick in playing time across his previous two games, which accompanied an increase in usage in the team's offense.
- On a slate lacking bargain-bin options, Zaccheaus' projected playing time and usage in Atlanta's offense made him the premier sub-4k play on the slate.
MY CASH-GAME LINEUP
Scored 154.32 points - DID cash
This past weekend, my cash-game lineup on DraftKings scored 154.32 points, which was good enough for me to cash in the majority of cash-game contests I entered. Overall, my lineup was very similar to the sharp chalk aside from Teddy Bridgewater; every player in the lineup appeared in at least 22.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
In lieu of redundant analysis that delves into why I agreed with the sharp chalk last weekend almost across the board, let's look at some broad trends across sharp NFL cash-game lineups through the first five weeks of the NFL season.
TWO LESSONS THE SHARPS HAVE TAUGHT US
Stacking
While this comparison might seem obtuse initially, we must think of NFL DFS cash-games, as a whole, as a market. Over time, markets tend towards equilibrium and efficiency-- skills and strategies that provided an edge over the field in previous seasons may no longer be advantageous, as the field is generally much smarter than ever. As a result, we must constantly re-evaluate our approach to these contests, challenging our priors and trying to disprove all preconceived notions we may have about what the "right" way to build NFL cash-game lineups is. First, let's look at stacking.
In the early days of DFS, very few people deployed stacks (or combinations of multiple players from the same team or game) in their lineups, regardless of the sport. In time, one player under the username BeepImaJeep discovered the edge that stacks offered in GPPs by capturing highly-correlated ceiling performances in a single lineup. While this strategy quickly emerged as the best approach to GPPs, most believed that stacking within a cash-game lineup was too risky and volatile. A diversified approach to cash-game lineups, selecting high-floor plays across various teams and games, was heavily preferred for years, as players actively avoided putting all of their metaphoric eggs in one team's basket.
However, as previously mentioned, the cash-game "market" has become much tougher to beat, in part due to the increased accuracy of projections across the industry. As a result, stacking has become an increasingly popular cash-game strategy. This is not to say that building cash-game lineups without stacking is inherently bad. Instead, the lesson to be learned here is that stacking should not be actively avoided in situations where combinations of players from the same team or game standout as the premier options at their respective positions.
In the current NFL DFS cash-game market, the field is astute enough to identify situations where multiple players from the same team are all strong enough plays to warrant a spot in the same cash-game lineup, regardless of the presumed downside associated with significant investment in one single team's performance. Last weekend's slate is a perfect example of a situation where Mike Davis and Robby Anderson both stood out as the strongest options at their respective positions. Avoiding this pair simply because they are both on the Carolina Panthers would have been an unfavorable decision that likely would have hampered any lineup's chances of finishing in the green in Week 5. Additionally, while he was not an obvious choice at the position, actively avoiding Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback solely because he is also on the Panthers; zeroing-in on the downside associated with a trio of players from one offense would have wrongfully ignored the upside of this underpriced attack in a highly-favorable matchup.
In sum, actively avoiding stacking in NFL cash-game lineups is an antiquated and detrimental lineup-building strategy.
Flex Usage
Making the most of the flex position in lineups in all formats of contests across all sports in DFS is critical to being a winning player long-term. In NFL cash-games, two things stand out above the rest regarding how the sharpest players utilize the flex spot in DraftKings lineups. First, always ensure that the player starting last at his respective position in your lineup is in the flex position. Do this in all lineups across all sports and contests of any format, as the reasoning is universal. With late-swap, the ability to alter lineups after the slate initially locks is a massive feature of NFL DFS. Putting the latest-starting player in the flex position maximizes optionality in lineups, opening up the player pool and increasing the number of potential pivots available to you when utilizing the late-swap feature on DraftKings.
Secondly, and specific to NFL DFS cash-games, always fill your flex position with a running back. One common thread between every sharp lineup evaluated in The Sharp Report this season is that the flex position has been filled by a running back in all of them. The reasoning he boils down to one simple premise: a running back's weekly volume is significantly safer than either a wide receiver's or tight end's volume at all price-points. At the top-end of the player pool, elite running backs regularly accumulate over 20 scoring opportunities per game. On the other hand, elite comparably-priced wide receivers rarely accumulate 15 scoring opportunities in a game. This disparity, in favor of running backs, continues across all price-points, and the safety of a running back's weekly workload is critical for cash-games. Always attempt to roster a third running back in NFL DFS cash-game lineups in the flex position to provide your lineup with another secure producer with a sizable workload in his team's respective offense.
PROJECTED SHARP PLAY: Myles Gaskin
The Miami Dolphins enter Week 6 fresh off a stunning upset victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Last weekend, the Dolphins flew across the country and belittled last season's most dominant defense by lighting up the scoreboard for 43 points en-route to a 26-point win against the 49ers. Myles Gaskin, a second-year player from the University of Washington, has quickly emerged as Miami's number-one running back this season. Although he started the season listed third on the team's depth chart behind Matt Breida and Jordan Howard, Gaskin has played at least 63-percent of Miami's offensive snaps in every game this year. Additionally, across the team's two victories, Gaskin averages 19 carries-per-game, far more than what is typically expected from a $5,400 player on DraftKings. The former-All-Pac-12 selection is also a respectable contributor through the air for Miami, as he has tallied at least 4 targets and at least 5.2 DraftKings points through the air in each of Miami's first 5 games. This weekend, with the Miami Dolphins favored by eight points over the New York Jets, we can expect Myles Gaskin to continue to play a sizable role in the team's offense, both on the ground and in the passing game. At the pedestrian price tag of only $5,400, Gaskin is as reliable of a salary-saving option as you will find on this weekend's slate, and he should be expected to appear in the majority of sharp NFL DFS cash-game lineups here in Week 6.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article -- or with any fantasy football questions you may have for this upcoming week!
