The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
TEAM #1: 188.80 points
DID cash
TEAM #2: 165.2 points
DID cash
Overlap
The following, in italics, is the analysis used last week to project Jacobs as a Sharp Play for the week.
Room for Improvement
To start the 2020 season, the newly relocated Las Vegas Raiders go on the road to take on the Carolina Panthers. Last season, in Jacobs’ rookie campaign, he averaged 16.0 DraftKings points per game, including a handful of games where Jacobs missed a consequential amount of time due to in-game injuries and limited his playing time. On the whole, Jacobs averaged 18.6 carries-per-game and 1.5 receptions-per-game, with the latter being a notably low number for a starting running back playing the lion’s share of the snaps. Jacobs, however, recognized this hole in his game and made it clear that he plans on improving in this regard, as he is quoted saying, “My goal is to catch at least 60 balls this year.” If he reaches this target, assuming he plays all 16-games, that extrapolates out to 3.75 receptions-per-game. If Jacobs matches the point-per-reception efficiency numbers he posted during his rookie season, that would increase his receiving production from a meager 2.745 DraftKings-points-per-game through the air up to approximately 6.92 DraftKings-points-per-game. While he should not be expected to fully reach this lofty target of aerial production, Jacobs' DraftKings-points-per-game tally is primed to climb as he becomes a more well-rounded running back in his second season in the NFL.
The Matchup
The Carolina Panthers’ defense was dead-last in DraftKings points allowed to opposing running backs last year, which was not only a product of rushing volume but also efficiency allowed. The Panthers ranked dead-last in DVOA allowed on the ground last year by a wide margin-- the 6.6% difference between the Panthers’ defense and the next-worse team was larger than the gap between 30th and 23rd in the league. While team defense is exceptionally difficult to project before the season, there is little reason to believe that Carolina’s defense will make any significant improvements this season, as they are poised to field a historically young lineup on that side of the ball. The average age of Carolina’s starting defense will likely land somewhere between 23.45 and 23.81 years old, depending on who emerges in various position battles. This will be the youngest average age of any defense in the NFL in the last 10 years, with the next-youngest team being the 2018 Cleveland Browns (24.8 years old). Unsurprisingly, that Browns defense was one of the worst in the NFL, ranking 30th in total defense, 31st in first downs allowed, and 25th in rushing DVOA allowed. To make matters worse for Carolina, this offseason, or lack thereof, and the chaos associated with it has lessened the amount of time the team has had together for much-needed reps in practice and preseason games. Carolina’s most notable addition to the defense, Derrick Brown, a first-round pick at defensive tackle in the 2020 NFL Draft, said, “I feel like I’m missing the experience (of the offseason and preseason games).” when asked about how he felt as a rookie without the typical offseason work. Expectations for Carolina’s defense against the run are exceptionally low, which plays right into Josh Jacobs’ hands, helping to make him a premier selection at running back during the opening weekend of the 2020 season.
Gameflow
A critical element of sharp decision-making at the running back position is identifying matchups that feature expectedly-strong gameflow. The Raiders open the season as 3.5-point favorites over the Panthers, which typically leads to increased rushing volume. The Raiders’ 2019 season is a perfect example of this dynamic, as Josh Jacobs averaged 22.17 carries-per-game across the 6 victories he played in, as opposed to just 15.57 carries-per-game across the 7 losses he played in. Las Vegas enters this game with approximately a 61-percent chance to win the game, according to the betting market, which should foster a very fantasy-friendly environment for their lead-back.
Summary
Josh Jacobs enters the 2020 season as one of the few running backs that approached bellcow status with obvious room for improvement by adding receiving production to his game. His 2019 numbers through the air were remarkably low, and while he will have competition for playing time on passing downs, he can reasonably be expected to make strides in this regard. The FootballGuys Consensus full-season projections for Jacobs currently predict he doubles his 2019 by going from 20 receptions in his rookie season to 40 receptions in his second season. While Jacobs may fall short of the 60-catch benchmark he hopes to reach, 40 receptions are nothing to sneeze at when added to his considerable rushing production. Additionally, the Carolina Panthers’ exceptionally young defense projects to be one of the softest in the league against running backs once again this year. The matchup for Jacobs gets even better when accounting for the expected increase in rushing volume, as the Raiders are three-point favorites over the Panthers, which typically leads to a run-heavy approach for the favored team. Lastly, Jacobs’ h-value rating in David Dodds’ weekly projections is currently the second-highest of any running back on the main slate (trailing only Christian McCaffrey, who checks in a steep $10,000 price point), and this has consistently been a strong indicator of situations sharp NFL DFS players target when building lineups. At $6,800, Josh Jacobs is an elite running back to build lineups around in all formats in Week 1 DFS contests on DraftKings.
Davante Adams struggled to stay healthy throughout the 2019 season, as he appeared in a total of 12 games. Nevertheless, Adams still managed to produce more than twice as many receiving yards as the Green Bay Packers’ next-leading-receiver. Adams commanded about 10.6 targets-per-game on the season, which comes as no surprise giving the massive drop-off in talent between him and the rest of Green Bay’s receiving corps. In the opening week of the 2020 season, Adams and the Packers traveled to Minnesota as one-point underdogs. While Adams’ expected volume was the most enticing feature of his Week 1 projections, considering he is one of the few players to reasonably projected to reach double-digit targets on a weekly basis, the soft matchup also bolstered his case as a sharp play at the wide receiver position. The Minnesota Vikings fielded a defense that lacked even a single league-average coverage player at the cornerback position. For the majority of the afternoon, Adams lineup up opposite Mike Hughes and Holton Hill, as expected, and he dominated both players. Neither Hughes nor Hill comes close to resembling a lockdown cornerback. In fact, both graded as significantly below-average pass-defenders in 2019, giving Green Bay’s number-one receiver a massive advantage on the outside. Overall, Davante Adams made his way into 86.4-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, in large part thanks to his awe-inspiring volume, combined with a soft matchup against Minnesota’s porous secondary.
Why Davante Adams?
-
Massive expected volume as the unquestioned number-one receiver on Green Bay’s roster.
-
Exceptionally soft matchup against the Vikings’ weak cornerbacks.
-
Playing in a dome bolsters passing game projections.
-
Team entered game as slight underdogs typically leads to a moderate increase in passing volume.
News came down late in the week that Philadelphia’s starting running back, Miles Sanders, picked up a hamstring injury that would keep him sidelined for the 2020 season opener against the Washington Football Team. His absence thrust Boston Scott into the presumed starting role-- I say presumed because this season, with limited access to team practices and coaching staffs, it is difficult to get definitive answers regarding this type of situation. Scott emerged late in the 2019 campaign as a viable backup for the Eagles, even registering 19 carries in Week 16 when he assumed starting duties, much like he did in Week 1 of this season, due to a Miles Sanders injury. Here, on the opening slate of the 2020 season, Scott was priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings because he was originally expected to play second-fiddle to Sanders. However, after the injury, with a drastic increase in projected usage, Scott was nearly a must-play in cash games. Additionally, the Eagles entered this game as approximately 5.5-point favorites with a projected 67-percent chance to win, according to betting markets. Typically, teams favored to this extent enact a run-heavy offensive attack with a secure lead to milk the clock, which further increased Boston Scott’s projected rushing volume. Ultimately, Scott fell short of expectations thanks, in part, to both an injury and a second-half collapse by the Eagles. The biggest lesson to be learned from this selection by 90.9-percent of the sharpest NFL DFS players that filled the $1,060 GIANT 50-50 on DraftKings is that players priced as backups that are forced into starting roles are often the strongest salary-saving options on a slate.
Why Boston Scott?
-
Presumed starting running back priced as a backup thanks to late-breaking injury news to Miles Sanders, Philadelphia’s typical starter.
-
Team entered game as heavy favorites, which typically leads to a run-heavy offensive approach, significantly increasing Scott’s projected rushing volume.
-
Proved to be capable of handling a significant workload late in the 2019 season, stepping into a similar role in Week 16 and providing acceptable production.
Breaking Down My Cash Team
New this season is an additional lineup review where I will breakdown my step-by-step decision-making process behind building sharp cash teams for NFL DFS and provide more specific decision-making insights.
Result: 165.20 points
DID cash
Starting Points: Last Week’s Projected Sharp Plays
Unsurprisingly, this lineup was built around Josh Jacobs at the running back position and T.Y. Hilton at wide receiver. The two Projected Sharp Plays from last week’s article were the building blocks for this lineup, and an in-depth analysis of each player can be found at the bottom of the article linked here. In short, however, Josh Jacobs’ ceiling as an all-around running back this season dwarfs what he provided in his rookie campaign. As expected, Jacobs’ involvement in the passing game increased dramatically in the season opener against Carolina. Ultimately, Jacobs recorded career-high totals in total routes run, targets, receptions, and receiving yards in Week One, easily paying off his modest $6,800 price tag. T.Y. Hilton, on the other hand, failed to reach value at $5,900. Hilton finished the week with 4 receptions for 53 yards on 9 targets, with nearly 40-percent of the Colts’ total air yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Identifying Value Plays
Antonio Gibson and Boston Scott jumped off the page this weekend as the top salary-saving options on the slate. At $4,000 and $4,800, respectively, Gibson and Scott offered massive upside for their price tags. Antonio Gibson was a viable cash game option this weekend thanks to the remarkable versatility as a hybrid player in college at Memphis, playing both running back and wide receiver. However, he was the more volatile of the two most-popular value plays on the slate, as his role early in the season was a relative unknown with very little definitive reporting on how he would be used and how much usage he would get in Washington’s offense. When the dust settled, Gibson posted just 6.4 DraftKings points in an unexpectedly-run-heavy game for Washington that featured a heavy dose of Peyton Barber. Opposite Gibson in this matchup, Boston Scott assumed the starting role for the Philadelphia Eagles when Miles Sanders was confirmed to be inactive due to a hamstring injury he picked up in practice. Scott was presumed to be the safer option between him and Gibson, as he emerged late in the 2019 season as a viable complement to Miles Sanders when Sanders was healthy as well as the number-one option to replace him when Sanders was unavailable. Scott also turned in an underwhelming 7.4 DraftKings points when all was said and done, thanks to an in-game injury that limited his involvement in addition to a surprisingly pass-heavy offensive attack for the Philadelphia Eagles, who failed to score in the second half. More analysis on Boston Scott’s cash-game viability can be found above in the Overlap section of this article.
Both Antonio Gibson and Boston Scott were heavily-rostered across the board and, although both players underperformed relative to expectations, the process that led to rostering two likely-starters with significant passing-game upside is a sound one.
Top-End Options Elsewhere
Rostering a pair of running backs in the $4,000-to-$5,000 price range allowed for high-end pieces to fill out my cash lineup this week by paying up for Lamar Jackson and Davante Adams at quarterback and wide receiver. Lamar Jackson’s 2019 campaign was awe-inspiring, and his gaudy fantasy production in a highly-efficient offense was likely the most repeatable of all top-end producers from last season. In Week One, the Baltimore Ravens were favored by a full touchdown over a suspect Cleveland Browns’ defense. Jackson proved to be capable of excelling in practically any game script, making the decision of whether or not to pay up at quarterback an easy one. Jackson offered the highest floor and ceiling of production at quarterback on a slate with a total lack of standout options aside from the reigning NFL MVP. Next, Davante Adams stood out as the premier option at wide receiver. Adams is the obvious number-one pass-catcher on the Packers’ roster, as their next-most-productive returning pass-catcher, Allen Lazard, recorded just 29 receiving-yards-per-game in 2019. Additionally, the Minnesota Vikings starting cornerback unit is a glaring weak-point on their defense. The Vikings did not field a single cornerback in Week 1 this season that has graded as an above-average pass defender in recent seasons, making them a particularly strong group to target with high-volume receivers. Deeper analysis regarding why Davante Adams was a cash-game staple for many players in Week 1 can be found above in the Overlap section of this article.
Summary
-
Built the lineup around last week’s Projected Sharp Plays (Jacobs and Hilton)
-
Identified best value options on the slate to help determine if, and where, to pay up for top-end talent (Gibson and Scott allowing for Jackson and Adams)
-
With high-end options plugged in, filled out the bottom of the roster with the defense that fit against a depleted offensive line (Washington) & two pass-catchers in soft matchups with the highest expected volume (Robinson and Hurst)
Projected Sharp Play: Jonathan Taylor
This offseason, the Indianapolis Colts invested a second-round pick in the NFL Draft in acquiring Jonathan Taylor to bolster the team’s running game. While expectations for Taylor in the long-run are high, he was not expected to make much of an immediate splash, as he was projected to split time in the backfield with the likes of Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, Mack was lost for the season to a torn achilles, which will force Taylor into significant playing time much sooner than they would have hoped for. Taylor, however, should be ready for the moment, as he proved to be one of the most prolific running backs in NCAA history during his time at Wisconsin. Taylor, an absolute burner who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, impressed in his NFL debut, specifically through the air where he hauled in all 6 of his targets for 67 yards. This workload in the passing game appears to be repeatable, as quarterback Philip Rivers had always shown a penchant for dumping the ball off to his running backs when in Los Angeles, and it would appear nothing has changed now that he is in Indianapolis. Additionally, the Colts are currently projected to win this matchup with the Minnesota Vikings by a field goal, according to the betting market, which should lead to increased rushing volume for Taylor. Lastly, this Week 2 matchup will be played in a dome, which typically fosters a fantasy-friendly environment for players, as there are zero worries about adverse weather conditions. In sum, Jonathan Taylor is an elite mid-range option at running back to build lineups around in all formats. Taylor’s price tag of $5,700 is simply too cheap for a player widely regarded as an elite playmaker with an expanding role in his team’s offensive attack in all phases of the game.
As always, feel free to reach out to me directly on Twitter with any questions, comments, or concerns regarding this article.
