For Quarterback and Tight End targets click here
For Running Back targets click here
So now you've figured out the quarterback and tight end spots, and you've figured out that running back is a complete battle to land both talent and depth at the position. The final position is the fun one. Passing games in the NFL are, more than ever, spreading the air yards around to multiple targets in their offenses. As a result, the wide receiver position is staggeringly deep, and despite there being some elite options, once you pass the top nine or ten receivers the next twenty or twenty-five receivers are very similar in their talent, opportunity, and upside. That being the case, the dollar values at the position will, at some point, fall off a cliff during the course of the auction. One minute Amari Cooper will be going for $31 and 30 minutes later D.J. Chark could be going for $8. Now, more than ever, you should be paying attention to the moment that the cratering of prices begins to happen at the wide receiver spot and you should have enough money to exploit it. In fact, it is a feasible strategy to simply wait until that happens and then to scoop up 3-5 guys in that zone. This article argues that the optimal play, however, is to get 1-2 Top 12 guys, and then fill out your other wide receiver and flex spots with value at the position. The depth allows your team to really take off once you add a posse of wide receivers in the ADP range of WR10 to WR35. The separation between that bank of 25 players is so small that taking whatever is the best price you see is the way to really stack your roster.
Now, you can decide if there are certain guys in that range that are more attractive to you than others. Obviously, everyone's personal player evaluations should drive their strategy and that's also part of the fun of doing auctions - getting the guys you like. But when talking about the best game theory approach to landing wide receivers, the most positive expected value comes from landing as many players at a discount that can perform at the WR2 level or higher. A good example of this last year was Chris Godwin, who had the price of a middle-to-low WR2 in most auctions but performed as an elite player. If you play the game right, landing three or four of those types of players behind your WR1 is eminently possible in 2020 because of the depth at the position. That means that you should be compiling a list of targets of the players you do like so that when the value hits you don't have to think too much about whether you want the player or not, you simply act. This target list is where you should start. It has a mixture of low hype, high upside players that are aren't getting a lot of attention and should make for good value as compared to similarly ranked players around them.
ELITE TARGETS
Tyreek Hill - The Chiefs' wideout has an ADP that shows he is the 3rd wide receiver off the board in most cases. But the players near him - DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones - are valued almost equally, and the only real agreement is that Michael Thomas and Davante Adams belong ahead of them. Consider, however, if Hill was coming off a 90/1,400/12 campaign: Would his price be dipping in auctions like it is? The combination of an injury to his quarterback, and two separate injuries for Hill himself has him clearly in a tier behind the top guys. Call out Hill as quickly as you can and see if you end up getting him cheaper than he should go. Owners will likely be fine waiting on the other top four options instead of forcing a bid on Hill. If you have a Hill fan in the room - entirely possible - this won't work, but it's worth a shot to land a guy who can be the WR1 overall by year's end for a discount of anywhere from $3-$10 off the top guys.
D.J. Moore - Moore barely makes the Elite category, but he belongs here for a couple of reasons. In 2019 he played with Kyle Allen at quarterback for most of the season and turned in some very good numbers for his situation. He essentially played 14 games after leaving Carolina's penultimate game with a concussion. His 14-game average was 16.4 PPR points per game which was good for 8th in the league, despite scoring just four touchdowns! Doing this with Kyle Allen is remarkable by itself. But his career numbers show a trajectory that, should it continue, signals the makings of a true star. This is where auctions are made. Moore is the 9th or 10th wide receiver off the board in most cases, and yet he was the PPR WR8 last year in a poor situation. Heading into 2020 the Panthers have a weaker defense, a better quarterback, and an offensively gifted staff. There may be some growing pains in Carolina, but Moore's 135 targets last year are mouth-watering in a better situation. Taking the chance on Moore won't demand an elite price and if he connects with this new opportunity he has top five written all over him.
ELITE QUALITIES...QUESTIONS TO ANSWER
JuJu Smith-Schuster - Everyone knows how poor the quarterback play in Pittsburgh was last year, and yet Smith-Schuster still can't climb out of WR2 territory in drafts. It seems the fantasy community is skeptical of Ben Roethlisberger's health and ability to distribute the ball or his top wide receiver would be getting more recognition for a guy who is one season removed from a 111-catch, 1,400 yard campaign. Smith-Schuster's value hasn't exactly tanked, so he has some risk, but the Steelers offense will definitely rebound from a poor 2019. The only questions are how much volume will be there playing opposite a tough defense, and how much Roethlisberger has left in the tank. The important thing is, in auctions, people are more excited about players like Allen Robinson, Adam Thielen, and even A.J. Brown over Smith-Schuster. This creates a void you should look to exploit. Nominate him before these other similar receivers leave the tier and owners will wait around for one of the options they consider to be more exciting.
Robert Woods - Woods has posted 176 receptions the past two seasons, while finishing as the PPR WR11 in 2018, and the PPR WR14 in 2019. Yet for some reason he is going in the middle of WR2 territory in drafts. He only recorded two touchdowns last year on his 90 receptions and 140 targets so you should expect him to get 3-4 more scores in the coming season. Admittedly, Woods has never been a high touchdown guy, but there is no reason to think he has anything different coming in the way of usage and volume and if his touchdowns spike in any meaningful way he could even catapult into the Top 10 at the position. Combine that with the fact that Brandin Cooks is no longer in town (72 targets) and Woods has value written all over him. He is the type of player that auctions are made for.
Tyler Lockett - The Seahawks really like to run the football, and second-year wide receiver DK Metcalf has the look of an ascending NFL receiver. But the drop in Lockett's price is almost as odd as the Woods price. Part of the issue is how Lockett finished the year after suffering an injury in Week 10. It took him about a month to get healthy, and once he did he began to produce again. When Lockett went down with the injury he was ranked as the PPR WR3! This is not to say he'll finish as a top three receiver if he stays healthy, but more to point out that his draft price is absurd compared to what he can do for fantasy teams. Even if you give him a small haircut to allow for a Metcalf breakout, Lockett is being drafted below his floor. You should hop on this draft room malaise towards Lockett.
T.Y. Hilton - This is another receiver who is fighting an injury bias despite the fact that he's mostly been a dependable guy for fantasy owners. Over Hilton's previous seven seasons prior to 2019 the fewest games he had played in a season was 14, and that came in 2018. Every other year he's played 15 or 16 games. Now the Colts have brought in four strong offensive pieces over the last two years - Philip Rivers, Parris Cambell, Michael Pittman Jr, and Jonathan Taylor - and they still possess one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. Hilton played in seven games through Week 8 last year and he ranked 15th in PPR points per game, so he was still a strong WR2 when healthy. The additions to the offense should help Hilton, and he's going at the bottom of WR2 territory in drafts so he should be cheaper than his pedigree dictates.
D.J. Chark - It is natural, and appropriate, to have concerns about Chark. But by any standards his 2019 season was an indicator that his ceiling has yet to be reached. Out of the 38 players who garnered over 100 targets in 2019, Chark, in his second professional season, ranked a respectable 13th with an Average Depth of Target of 11.5 yards. He also commanded 117 targets while finishing with over 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns on a generally weak Jaguars offense. When Chark got hurt in Week 14 he was the PPR WR8 to that point. He managed to do all of this despite playing in just 15 games, being hobbled in the final two, and catching passes from two different quarterbacks. So now this year Gardner Minshew is going to get a shot at the full-time role, and the Jaguars defense looks like it's going to be quite poor. Take a chance on Chark ascending on his career arc and grab him easily as a WR3 for your auction squad. His upside is what can make auction rosters special. If he breaks out in 2020 his low WR2 price tag will be a distant memory.
BIGGER QUESTIONS...PLENTY OF UPSIDE
A.J. Green/Tyler Boyd - These two are here together because neither Bengal receiver is getting much attention in drafts. Both are being drafted well into WR3 territory, yet both have proven records of being able to produce as a WR2 or higher. Green's body of work is obvious, and while caution in fantasy drafters is reasonable, when he's on the field his fantasy prowess is well documented. Boyd, on the other hand, has now put together two strong campaigns and still can't quite buy some hype from drafters. The common denominator for both is that they'll easily outperform a WR3 price tag if Joe Burrow can play football at all. The Bengals defense, while improved, had a long way to go and is likely going to necessitate Cincinnati throwing the ball quite a bit again in 2020. They ranked 4th in the league in attempts in 2019, and that shouldn't drop much in 2020. Burrow is a concern, but not enough for these two to be going so cheaply.
Jarvis Landry - Every summer the same thing happens to Jarvis Landry. People find reasons not to draft him. In 2017 he finished as the PPR WR5, in 2018 it was PPR WR18, and last year it was PPR WR12. So how is it that an improved coaching staff, drafting a stud tackle, and the addition of Austin Hooper, adds up to Landry being drafted near the bottom of WR3 territory? It doesn't. Landry is a perfect auction target that makes any team instantly stronger for a fraction of what he should cost.
Michael Gallup - The presence of CeeDee Lamb has completely tanked Gallup's price in drafts. Gallup made great strides last year, often challenging Amari Cooper for dominance in the passing game, and it would be hasty to pronounce Gallup as a casualty to Lamb's presence. The Cowboys' passing offense is going to be electric in the coming season and there is no reason to quit on Gallup when he's as cheap as he is. Could he lose time to Lamb? Sure. But nobody knows what the offense will look like, especially with a limited offseason, so completely fading Gallup after such a good year in 2020 seems like an overreaction. Getting him on your team won't cost much, and the payoff could be huge.
Will Fuller - Everyone knows that Fuller can't stay healthy. But everyone also knows what he can do when he's on the field. The thing is, he's burned so many people that his price shows that not many believe he can stay healthy for an extended period anymore. But auctions present an opportunity that serpentine drafts do not. Drafting Fuller doesn't mean sacrificing an important pick in a serpentine draft. Instead, in an auction, you can get Fuller as a WR4 or WR5 because of the price, and that's how you manage the risk. Fuller should be seen as an acceptable risk in every auction draft you do.
Marvin Jones - There really isn't much of a difference between the numbers Jones can put up and the numbers Golladay can put up in the Detroit offense. The problem, of course, is that Jones has played just 22 of his last 32 games due to injury. But, in the previous four years prior to 2018 he played 15 or 16 games in all four years. It is possible Jones has just had some bad luck the last two years, and that the injury stigma is undeserved. At the very least, it should be noted that Jones was the PPR WR16 before he left for the year with his injury. His draft price is in the tank and he's a WR2 when he's on the field who has double digit touchdown upside. Jones should be someone you wait on as long as you can. He can be had in some situations for just a couple dollars when money is short. The fact that he's not on most people's lists as a priority means he can be saved for the latter stages and probably won't be nominated in most cases until very late.
BARGAIN SHOPPING
Brandin Cooks/Randall Cobb - Stockpiling pieces of the Houston passing offense is a great idea in 2020. Cooks keeps moving around, but still produces. Cobb is in much the same boat. He produced over 800 yards receiving last year despite playing behind Cooper/Gallup in Dallas. Both of these guys could easily find themselves as producers for fantasy teams this year and it's smart to hitch your wagon to a guy like Deshaun Watson playing behind a solid offensive line with a weak defense.
Christian Kirk - Few people have internalized that Kirk was hurt for most of the season in 2019. Obviously, the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins in town is going to make it harder for Kirk in 2020, but his draft price has been pushed all the way down into the WR4 territory. For a guy that was all the rage in 2019 in fantasy drafts, Kirk is the perfect post-hype sleeper on a fast paced offense that likes to throw the football.
Jamison Crowder - For a guy that nearly set career highs across the board despite playing games with Luke Falk and Trevor Siemian, his draft stock continues to be weak. He clearly showed chemistry with Sam Darnold last year, and his PPR WR26 finish seems like a reasonable expectation for Crowder going forward and yet he's being drafted as a low WR4. That kind of value gap for $1-$3 is exactly what you're looking for in the bargain department.
Sterling Shepard - While the hype is focused on Darius Slayton you can swoop in and grab Shepard. He started the year last year in his first four games with 35 targets and 25 receptions. When he, Slayton, and Tate all played it was Shepard who commanded the most targets from quarterbacks in New York. The way you make your roster pop in an auction is to let others pay up for Slayton, while you get Shepard for $1.
DeSean Jackson - It only took one game in Philadelphia to see what the potential is for Jackson with Wentz throwing him the football. Unfortunately, he disappeared, as he is prone to do, with an injury that kept him out the rest of the year. What is curious is that although Philadelphia drafted a talented wide receiver, they added nothing else of consequence in the receiving game. Jackson is being essentially forgotten as a low WR5 so he is the definition of all risk, all upside. It is a gamble you should take as one of your final roster spots.
The lesson from 2019 is that the wide receiver position is so deep that many fantasy drafters are shifting their auction dollars elsewhere. This created a complete drop-off in the market in last year's auctions. Taking advantage of this anticipated gap in value is what smart auction drafters do, but it can't just be waiting around for guys at the end of the draft. There are quite a few guys you should be targeting before similarly ranked players are off the board. This is how your auction roster can go from a solid contender, to a championship team. You simply must play the position for upside once you've established your floor. Plenty of guys on this list have one, or both. Mix them together, along with your market-priced cornerstones, and your roster will go to the next level.
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