Eliminator Pool: Week 12

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Week 11 was once again almost a perfect week for the staff, but Dallas ruined the party for six of the staff, including several 10-0 records. That just shows how difficult it is to have a perfect season. The Chargers and Steelers took care of business over the Jets and Jaguars, respectively, but a loss for Baltimore rounded out the group with seven tough losses. Just six staffers remain perfect on the year with just six games left in the season to play. As mentioned many times, it gets tougher and tougher every week. Week 12 is a tricky week despite the first 16-game slate in months as we have three games on Thursday and no double-digit favorites this week. Let's take a look and see what NFL Week 12 will have in store for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Week 12 has 16 games for the first time since September, as the byes are nearly done (Tampa Bay and Carolina are off in Week 13) - but despite so many games on the slate, the difficulty remains high. Three Thanksgiving Day contests are early games, and very few teams are favored by more than a touchdown. The biggest spread is for Green Bay (hosting Chicago, -8.5, -400 to -455 Money Line), as the Packers host the Bears in a big NFC North clash. Green Bay is the better team, but Chicago needs wins badly and is coming off of a bye, so this one feels a little dangerous of a pick. Two other divisional favorites - Miami (at the Jets, -7, -286 to -310 Money Line) and the Rams (vs. San Francisco, -7, -330 to -340 Money Line) are also touchdown favorites and should be popular this week. The other game close to a touchdown is Cleveland (at Jacksonville, -6 to -7, -278 to -300 Money Line), and it looks like the best spot to use the Browns the rest of the season. Five more games are in the 5-6 point favorite range, and are also going to be in the mix:

• Pittsburgh (vs. Baltimore [Thursday], -5 to -5.5, -225 to -250 Money Line)
• New York Giants (at Cincinnati, -5.5 to -6, -245 to -260 Money Line)
• Buffalo (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, -5.5, -235 to -250 Money Line)
• New Orleans (at Denver, -5.5 to -6, -260 to -270 Money Line)
• Seattle (at Philadelphia [Monday], -5.5 to -6, -245 to -250 Money Line)
• New York Giants (at Cincinnati, -5.5 to -6, -245 to -260 Money Line)

Expect a long and varied list of games and picks for a tough week for most Survivor and Eliminator pool contests in Week 12.

The picks are in here on a short week (Tuesday night), and the top pick is the Cleveland Browns with seven selections. Seattle (5) and New Orleans (4) come in next, with three teams (Green Bay, Los Angeles Rams, and New York Giants) all getting two votes each. This is clearly a tough week with several different directions to go, but also a few teams that are presenting possibly their best opportunity for a more certain victory for the rest of the season. Six different teams are in the mix this week for the picks, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out by Tuesday morning.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: What a bummer. I second-guessed my pick three weeks ago (Pittsburgh over Houston) because I wanted the Steelers for Week 11 - but thought I found a magic bullet in taking the Vikings at home over Dallas. So much for that call. Well, that's how fast a perfect season can disappear, but I will press on and still shoot for 16-1. This is the right spot to use Cleveland as they have just two games the rest of the way where they are likely favorites (Week 15 at the Giants, Week 16 at the Jets) but better choices remain for those weeks. Fading Jacksonville is usually a good strategy, so that is the plan here.

The Pick: Cleveland Browns

Sigmund Bloom: Well this is difficult because all three of the preferred picks:

• LAR (vs SF)
• CLE (at JAX)
• SEA (at PHI)

have the Jets left on the schedule, so I'll go with the Giants and assume Ryan Finley can't win a game in the NFL

The Pick: New York Giants

Darin Tietgen: Getting down to the nitty-gritty here, so I can start using some of the teams I purposely saved for the tail end of the season. In this case, I am going with the Packers, at home, against a reeling Chicago team. Pretty much a must-win for the Packers coming off their loss to the Colts last week. Gotta think Aaron Rodgers and this Packer team gets it done in Lambeau.

The Pick: Green Bay Packers

Jeff Haseley: There are not a lot of good home teams to pick from this week. You could possibly go with Minnesota vs Carolina, but even that's no sure thing. I happen to have Seattle left among my available teams, so I am taking them on the road against the 3-6-1 Eagles. Could this come back to bite me? Yes. But it's the best game of teams I have available. Let's go Seahawks to extend the streak to 12! Another possibility is Cleveland against Jacksonville, but this could be a let-down trap game for Cleveland. I'd rather put my eggs into Seattle's basket.

The Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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