Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool, and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 11th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in the 2020 season. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
We have officially entered the beginning of double-digit weeks on the NFL calendar, and with that comes the realization that the fantasy playoffs are on the horizon. Fine-tuning our line-ups, not just for this week but for the long run, will be crucial in edging opponents in tight races for postseason berths. With the data at our disposal thanks to the match-up spreadsheet, we can more accurately project and target match-ups and get a leg up on our opponents during this stretch run.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Washington pass rushers vs. Cincinnati offensive line
The Football Team is not dead – yet. In what has officially been named the worst division of all time through 10 weeks of play, the NFC East is still, somehow, up for grabs despite the combined ineptitude of these franchises. Ron Rivera’s team will not care, though. The visiting Bengals offensive line and its lack of cohesion offers the best path to success this week, with the Washington pass rush averaging pressure on 16.4% of dropbacks. This is despite a well-below-average number of dropbacks faced; just 32.4. For context, Joe Burrow is dropping back 44.8 times per game. Opportunity knocks for the home team.
Alex Smith should do just enough to keep things close and allow his defense to get after Burrow, though Vegas has this as a tight affair. The Bengals are allowing pressure on 18.6% of dropbacks, with 3.6 sacks allowed per game on average. This could be the week that the relentless pressure finally gets to the number one overall pick, forcing mistakes and, perhaps, a big day from Washington’s key defenders.
Key stat: The Bengals line has allowed 8.3 quarterback hits per game.
Miami pass rushers at Denver
The formula is working a treat in Miami. Brian Flores has rotated his defense to keep players fresh, taking a page from his mentor Bill Belichick’s book. His team has steadily become a force to be reckoned with, and it comes down in large part to their defensive effort. They average pressure as a unit on 17.8% of dropbacks and, as the key stat below shows, that hits a new height on the road. While that is partially opponent-driven, there is no doubt that this is a plum match-up.
Whether it is Drew Lock or Brett Rypien at quarterback for Denver likely will not matter, such is the frailty of this line. It allows pressure on 19.2% of dropbacks, to go along with 7.8 quarterback hits per game. The Dolphins have shown a penchant for taking the ball away in recent weeks, so converting these hits and pressures into turnovers is a good shot to take this week. Plug in a Dolphin or two into your line-up if you need that extra punch.
Key stat: The Dolphins have applied pressure on 21.7% of dropbacks as the road team.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Philadelphia pass rushers at Cleveland
It is all about the match-up. The numbers on the Eagles as a pass-rushing force have been exceptionally good; they average pressure on 21.7% of dropbacks and have averaged 3.4 sacks per game. However, the match-up and the lack of momentum from the NFC East outfit put them into the match-ups to avoid bucket this week.
Nick Chubb’s return reminded the football cognoscenti last week what this team’s DNA is: a ground and pound operation with selective play-action shots and a controlled game plan. Baker Mayfield is dropping back just 29.8 times per game, with the league average at 37.3. That is not a formula for success for the Eagles pass rush. Throw in the fact that the Browns have allowed pressure on just 11.8% of dropbacks and this is a match-up that should be avoided at all costs.
Key stat: The Browns offensive line has allowed just 1.3 sacks per game, compared to the league average of 2.18.
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
NY Jets defenders at LA Chargers
Stadium TVO rank: 2nd
There may not be a better spot for the lowly Jets this season as tackle producers than this. A trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers has been a goldmine for tackle production in 2020, with the stadium ranking second by TVO and the home team’s offense providing ample opportunity. With 31.4 rushing attempts per game and 70.4 offensive snaps per game, Justin Herbert’s offense is humming and should give the Jets all they can handle.
When we consider as well that the Chargers are nine-point favorites, the game script favors a run-heavy second half that sees the Jets scrambling to tackle Kalen Ballage and others. The Jets average 54.8 tackle opportunities per game. The advice is to plug in your Jets and reap the rewards.
Key stat: The Chargers have allowed the most tackle opportunities in the league, with an average of 61.5 allowed at home.
New England and Houston defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 3rd
The favorable spots for tackle production are plentiful this week, with this game standing out due to its positive TVO environment and the teams involved. The Patriots could run wild in Houston this Sunday against a Texans defense that has routinely given up chunks of yardage on the ground. Bill Belichick’s team runs the ball on 51.6% of its plays, with the league average standing at 41.3%. Cam Newton should pitch in, as usual, to create a potential nightmare situation for the Texans.
And of course, that can only mean a massive tackle output for Houston’s defenders. The Texans offense has averaged just 21.8 rushing attempts per game and does not have as much appeal as the New England attack, but given the TVO factor, the Patriots are still viable as tackle producers, too. With New England favored in Vegas, however, and their formula the Achilles heel for Houston, expect huge games across the board from the home team in the box score.
Key stat: The home team and road team average 39.8 and 40.5 solo tackles per game, respectively, in Houston.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Kansas City and Las Vegas defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 30th
Both the Chiefs and Raiders have been solid tackle opportunity providers this season, but this match-up has its ceiling reduced purely due to the venue. Gamblers might spin the wheel anyway, trusting that the offensive outputs of both teams will be able to overcome the 30th-ranked TVO factor, but the advice is to trust the trend and seek tackle output elsewhere.
The brain trust in Vegas has made the Chiefs seven-point favorites, so the Raiders hold a bit more appeal if you buy into that. However, this feels like it could be a tighter affair, with neither team running away with it. The smart play is to seek upside elsewhere and to get your refreshments ready for this one.
Key stat: The Raiders average 57.3 tackle opportunities allowed as the home team.
Pittsburgh defenders at Jacksonville
Stadium TVO rank: 23rd
The only way this recommendation could go south is if Pittsburgh plays down to their level of competition. However, having barely scraped by Dallas a couple of weeks ago, the feeling is that will not happen. A comfortable 10-point road favorite, the Steelers should be able to have their way with Jacksonville’s offensive line, putting the game out of reach early and forcing an already putrid Jaguars rushing attack to abandon ship.
The Steelers are averaging just 47.7 tackle opportunities per game and, with the TVO factor and game script against them, this could be a low ebb for them from a tackle perspective. There is little reason to believe Jake Luton can flip the script and keep this one close, so err on the side of benching your Steelers this week.
Key stat: The Jaguars offense has averaged just 22 rushing attempts per game, with the league average standing at 26.3.
Best of luck with Week 11 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
