Guiding DFS Tournament Principles
There are a number of strategies that are key to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Third, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target. Lastly, we need to add some positive correlations to our rosters by choosing which games are best to stack.
Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.
1. Identify the good chalk
Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason, and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.
The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key, and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.
The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the minute projections.
Week 9 Review
Week 9 ended up being one of the chalkiest weeks of the season. Kyler Murray and Josh Allen ended up being the two top quarterbacks by a good margin. Dalvin Cook broke the slate with 38.2 fantasy points and was the most rostered player on the slate. Davante Adams was (28.3 points) and Keenan Allen (20.8) were amongst the most popular wide receiver options and came through in a big way.
Week 10 good chalk
Kyler Murray (18%) and Josh Allen (20%) again look like good chalk at the quarterback position.
Stefon Diggs (33%), Davante Adams (24%), and Cooper Kupp (23%) each look like good chalk at wide receiver.
The biggest decision of the week is what to do with running backs Mike Davis (45%) and Aaron Jones (45%). It is scary to fade either but my take is that both are bad chalk this week at these extremely inflated rostered percentages.
2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.
We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we consider what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.
The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.
Week 9 Review
The key to success on the Week 9 slate was finding a way to roster both Dalvin Cook and the contrarian pay up option, Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey was especially key on the slate. There was a huge gap between his 32.1 fantasy points and the RB3, James Robinson, with 15.9 points.
Week 10 Under the Radar
Michael Thomas (6%) could be the Week 10 version of McCaffrey as an elite performer who is only unpopular due to a recent return from injury.
The understandable focus on the top quarterbacks leaves Carson Wentz (4%) as a contrarian option who also saves some cap space.
3. Show up to the party early
The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun sometimes as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.
Week 9 Review
Jerry Jeudy has been on our list a lot this season and we finally got a ceiling game from him (7-125-1) at a low cost and with very few people playing him. Irv Smith has also been a regular on our “early to the party” list and he finished as the TE3 with almost nobody playing him and at near minimum prices.
Week 10 Breakout Targets
We can go back to the Denver offense with Jeudy’s fellow rookie K.J. Hamler (0.5%) to look for another breakout candidate.
Zach Moss (2%) is a talented young runner who gives you a ton of leverage against the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs chalk.
4. Stack to win
Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of the winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.
The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.
Week 9 Review
In terms of bang for your buck, Drew Lock to Jerry Jeudy was a strong option. However, Week 9 was one of those weeks where you were better off not stacking. Kyler Murray and Josh Allen both had rushing touchdowns and spread the ball around enough that the best option was playing them without a stack.
Week 10 top stacks
You can get creative with Carson Wentz stacks given how involved Miles Sanders is as a receiver.
If Kyler Murray has a huge game it may be because he hooks up with Christian Kirk for another long touchdown.
If you want to get extremely contrarian, Drew Lock to K.J. Hamler is way under the radar and frees up the cap space to roster almost whoever you want at the remaining positions.
Position-by-position breakdowns
Quarterback
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia ($7,500 — 4%)
This is a spot where the Philadelphia offense could be set to explode. A team that has been absolutely decimated by injuries is starting to get healthy again. Miles Sanders is finally set to return. The offensive line should get back starting tackles Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert returned before the bye but should be healthier with a couple more weeks to get right. Even Alshon Jeffery is expected to make his debut. Wentz has gone from throwing to arguably the worst skill position group in the NFL a few weeks ago to having an impressive array of targets with the emergence of Travis Fulgham and the return of so many other mismatch options.
Sunday we will see young Eagles offense of the future all together with Carson Wentz
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) November 13, 2020
Miles Sanders
Dallas Goedert
Travis Fulgham
Jalen Reagor pic.twitter.com/9Q9SnrqlWe
The matchup is enticing. Wentz had his best game of the season in Week 7 against this Giants defense. He racked up 359 passing yards and three total touchdowns for 28.8 fantasy points. Wentz put up those numbers despite having to lean on guys like Richard Rodgers and Boston Scott as his top targets. Wentz also averaged 307 passing yards per game in his two 2019 matchups against the Giants. New York is tied with Atlanta as the 5th-friendliest defense to opposing quarterbacks over the last five games according to Austin Lee’s normalized strength of schedule numbers. There is also some benefit in going away from the chalkiest quarterbacks and trying to gain some leverage on the field. The price difference is only $1,000-$1,500 between Wentz and the top passers on the slate, which gives you a chance to differentiate the rest of your lineup a bit. This is especially important to do if you are planning to play the chalky running backs like Aaron Jones and Mike Davis.
Kyler Murray, Arizona ($8,800 — 18%)
Murray is an elite play every week. He is on pace for almost 4,300 passing yards and 32 passing touchdowns in addition to being absolutely dominant as a runner. Murray is on pace for 1,086 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. He has scored on the ground in all but one game this season. While Murray is relatively chalky, the most popular quarterbacks still rarely get over 20%. It also makes sense to pay up at the position given how tightly bunched quarterback pricing has been all season on FanDuel. You just aren’t getting enough of a discount to go down to the second or third tier at the position unless you are multi-entering.
The matchup is a strong one for Murray this week. Buffalo has allowed four rushing touchdown to quarterbacks, including each of the last two weeks. We should expect Murray’s success as a runner to continue here. The Bills have allowed at least 18 FanDuel points to every quarterback they have faced except Sam Darnold and Murray arguably has the highest floor of any player on the slate in this spot. Russell Wilson had 390 passing yards and three total touchdowns last week against the Bills and there is a good chance we get another shootout game script here with two of the league’s hottest offenses squaring off.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Russell Wilson | LA Rams | $8,900 | 9% | Always in play even in tough matchups like this one |
| Josh Allen | Arizona | $8,700 | 20% | The chalk in a potential shootout with Arizona |
| Jared Goff | Seattle | $7,400 | 10% | Plum matchup against awful Seattle pass D |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland | $8,300 | 4% | The weather is a concern but Watson may be due as a runner |
| Aaron Rodgers | Jacksonville | $8,400 | 9% | With everyone focuses on Aaron Jones, Rodgers could flip the script |
Running Back
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia ($7,700 — 19%)
The top running backs project to be extremely popular with Aaron Jones and Mike Davis projected above 45%. While it doesn’t make sense to entirely fade those two Uber-popular backs if you are multi-entering, it makes sense to come in under the field on both and look to players like Miles Sanders who will be on much fewer rosters. Sanders has been one of the most efficient backs in the league this season. He’s 30th in the league in carries and 16th in rushing yards. Sanders is an elite athlete and has shown the ability to break off huge runs even against elite defenses, getting loose for 74 yard runs against both the Steelers and Ravens this season. As detailed above in the Carson Wentz writeup, the Eagles offense is finally getting healthy and in a spot to start making good on the preseason hype.
The Giants have been a Top-10 matchup for opposing backs over the last five weeks. They have been giving up big numbers through the air, which plays to Sanders’ strengths. In two recent matchups against Washington, this Giants defense allowed 23 catches for 172 yards. If we pencil Sanders in for a handful of touches, he looks to have a very solid floor. If he breaks loose for one of the long runs he has proven capable of producing on a regular basis, he has GPP-winning upside as well.
Duke Johnson Jr, Houston ($5,800 — 25%)
Most of the attention in this same price range is going to Mike Davis. We should be able to get Johnson at approximately half of the roster percentage and in arguably a better matchup. Duke Johnson Jr has almost no competition for carries. He took over near the end of the first quarter and finished with 20 touches (16 carries and 4 receptions). The weather situation should play in his favor with wind and rain expected in Cleveland. “If it does rain, I’m pretty sure my workload will go up, which again, I prepare every week like I’m the starter,” Johnson said this week. “So, it shouldn’t be a big deal just going out there and taking care of the football and taking care of the team.” In similar weather against the Browns, we saw Oakland feed Josh Jacobs with 31 carries.
"I'm buying into Duke Johnson Jr this week" @DFS_Tom breaks down all the things to like about Johnson's matchup against the Browns 👀
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) November 13, 2020
Full episode: https://t.co/EEx8cNjrpB pic.twitter.com/unrpoDhYcN
Other Running Backs to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Mike Davis | Tampa Bay | $5,400 | 45% | Strong floor and great price but does upside justify 45% in tournaments? |
| Aaron Jones | Jacksonville | $8,800 | 45% | Elite upside but that 45% projection is tough to stomach |
| James Robinson | Green Bay | $7,300 | 13% | Green Bay has been awful agaisnt the run and Robinson gets all the touches for Jags |
| Alvin Kamara | San Francisco | $9,000 | 31% | Tough matchup but Kamara is always in play |
| Josh Jacobs | Denver | $7,700 | 11% | Price has fallen and is a nice contrarian play agaisnt Denver |
| Nick Chubb | Houston | $8,200 | 11% | Great matchup in return from injury |
| Giovani Bernard | Pittsburgh | $6,200 | 1% | If Mixon misses again, Bernard should have plenty of opportunities |
| Cam Akers | Seattle | $5,100 | 1% | Longshot play but Akers should be more involved out of the bye |
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas, New Orleans ($8,500 — 6%)
We want to try to differentiate our lineups this week at the wide receiver position. There is very little depth at running back and the top quarterbacks have unmatched so this is the spot where we want to take some calculated risks. Thomas stands out in large part due to how few rosters he is expected to appear on compared to other top guys like Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs. Thomas has missed most of the season and posted a modest 5-51-0 line in his return to action last week against Tampa Bay. However, take those numbers with a grain of salt. The Saints put the Buccaneers away early last week which gave them the luxury of easing Thomas back in.
The matchup sets up well for Thomas. The 49ers have been torched by Davante Adams (10-173-1) and DK Metcalf (12-161-2) the past two weeks and have been a plus matchup for receivers all season. The Saints also have the second-highest team total on the slate. We also saw Thomas have 11 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown against a better 49ers defense last season. This could be the week that Thomas reminds us that he is an elite option every week and we may do well to try to beat the public to the punch here.
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams ($7,700 — 22%)
The case for Kupp is obvious: He saw a ridiculous 21 targets in his last outing and is playing a defense that has been getting absolutely roasted by opposing wide receivers. On the season, Cleveland has been the second-friendliest defense to opposing wide receivers by allowing 19% more fantasy points than their season average. That number is provided to contextualize how ridiculous it is that Seattle is allowing 54% more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. It is nearly 3X more than the second-worst defense against wide receivers. Seattle has allowed 15+ FanDuel points to 13 different wide receivers this season. We saw a potential preview of what to expect when Kupp played in Seattle last season. He saw 17 targets and ended up with a 9-117-1 receiving line.
KJ Hamler, Denver ($5,200 — 1%)
We project Hamler to be on well under 1% of rosters this weekend, which is one of the factors that makes him such an intriguing GPP option. With the top quarterbacks and running backs even chalkier than normal, we need to separate from the pack by taking some shots on less popular wide receivers. We want to do so without sacrificing too much in the way of expected points or upside. Hamler has both a higher floor and higher ceiling than it would seem in this spot. Hamler is the only Broncos pass catcher who is fully healthy. Tim Patrick has been limited in practice all week and is still dealing with a hamstring injury. Noah Fant recently returned from an ankle injury and has lamented the fact he is still not 100%. Jerry Jeudy has been limited in practice due to a shoulder injury.
KJ Hamler has improved each week and has some serious upside this Sunday âœï¸ pic.twitter.com/K2IoWnl7u3
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) November 12, 2020
Hamler’s rookie season is trending in the right direction. He caught the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds against the Chargers in Week 8 and built upon that with a strong performance in Week 9. Against Atlanta, he caught 6-of-10 targets for 75 yards. While Hamler is productive, he has not yet broken off one of the long touchdowns that were his calling card in college. Someone like Hamler, who ran a 4.27-forty, who have the ability to make GPP value on one play are always worth considering when they have realistic 10-target upside.