This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup
WR Mike Evans (TB vs CAR):
The stat line for Evans last week does not tell the whole story of the game. He may have only had a single catch for 7 yards and a touchdown, but he was interfered on what would have been 2 long plays down the field. Coach Arians admitted he should have moved Evans around the field and away from Marshon Lattimore as well. This week, Evans has a matchup against a soft Carolina defense, Chris Godwin is dealing with a concussion, and Tom Brady is very motivated after a lackluster week 1 performance. Look for a big game for Evans this week.
WR Jamison Crowder (NYJ vs SF):
UPDATE Friday: Crowder has been ruled out of his week 2 matchup with the 49ers with a hamstring injury
Typically, the San Francisco defense would scare you way from starting a WR on a bad team against them. However, the 49ers looked vulnerable in week 1 against the Cardinals and Richard Sherman was placed on the IR with a calf injury. On the flip side, LeVeon Bell was also added to the IR for the Jets and that leaves Crowder as the main beneficiary on a team that will be chasing points early. Look for Sam Darnold to target him early and often in an effort to keep the game respectable.
WR John Brown (BUF vs MIA):
This may seem a little counter intuitive with Stefon Diggs lined up on the other side, but Brown took on more of an Adam Thielen role counter to Diggs and was rewarded with 10 targets and pulled in 6 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. Miami looks solid on the outside at corner, but they will have to contend with Diggs and his deep route running ability. Brown torched the Dolphins last season and I am expecting similar results this year in an offense that looks even better for Buffalo.
WR Allen Robinson (CHI vs NYG):
Detroit blowing a 4th quarter lead to the Bears last week may have been the most normal thing to happen so far in 2020. The Giants allowed 3 passing touchdowns to receivers in week 1 against the Steelers and gave up the 5th most fantasy points to receivers in 2019. Mitchell Trubisky looked like a competent quarterback in week 1 and there is not much of a running game in Chicago right now. Robinson wants a new contract or to be traded the least the team can do is get the ball to him more to keep him happy in the interim.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC vs KC):
It is still hard to get a read on this Chargers offense. There seems to be some turmoil in the back field and Tyrod Taylor did not look great in week 1. The one constant is Allen will get his targets. Taylor looked his way 8 times in week 1, and despite only completing 4 of those passes that is still volume I will take any week. Look for the Chargers to be down early and forced to throw the ball. With Austin Ekeler starting slow, look for the offense to go through Allen in week 2.
WR Adam Thielen (MIN vs IND):
Week 1 was a disaster for the Vikings, and there are more questions than answers about both the offense and defense. However, Thielen looked great even without Stefon Diggs on the other side. It took the Vikings running the football with no success in the first half and trailing the Packers for them to finally open up and throw the ball. He was targeted 8 times and came down with 6 receptions for 110 yard, 2 touchdowns, and a 2-PT conversion. I do not expect the Vikings to be in as much of a shootout against the Colts, but they will find that Cousins needs to throw the ball to win and his best option is Thielen. The Jaguars scored all of their touchdowns through the air against the Colts in week 1 and that bodes well for Thielen.
TE Evan Engram (NYG vs CHI):
The results week 1 were not what we expected from Engram. He had a tough matchup against the Steelers and the Giants just never seemed to click on offense. However, this week he takes on a Bears defense that has given up the 9th most fantasy points to tight ends since 2019 and Engram should get better looks. He was still targeted 8 times in week 1 but Daniel Jones was just not accurate and under duress most of the night. If Saquon Barkley can get things going on the ground it should open things ip for Engram behind the linebackers and he should have a much bigger week against Chicago.
Unfavorable Matchup
WR Marvin Jones (DET vs GB):
The Lions offense did not look great in week 1 and blew a 4th quarter lead to the Bears. Even with Kenny Golladay dealing with a hamstring issue and not playing week 1, Jones had just 4 catches for 55 yards. His history against the Packers is not great either. In his past 2 games he has just 3 catches for 25 yards combined. The Packers defense is susceptible through the air after they were torched last week by Adam Thielen, but history would suggest it will not be Jones doing the damage this week.
WR Cooper Kupp (LAR vs PHI)
Kupp has been one of my favorite receivers to watch over the past year, but there have been some troubling trends that I have seen. He has become almost completely touchdown dependent in regard to fantasy and has not topped 100 yard receiving since week 8 of last season when he exploded for 220 yards against the Bengals. The emergence of Robert Woods has also cut into his overall number of targets and the Rams seem content running the ball. The Eagles secondary was torched all of last season but did not allow a passing touchdown in a loss to the Washington Football Team in week 1. Kupp will have a breakout game this season, it just will not be this week.
WR Tyreek Hill (KC vs LAC)
This may seem completely out of left field and a blasphemous prediction but follow the logic first. Hill has been held to under 11 fantasy points against the Chargers in their past 3 meetings and has only topped 100 receiving yards against them once in his career. Patrick Mahomes II has also never thrown for 300 yards against the Chargers and did not even top 200 in his start last season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire assumed control of the ground game and Travis Kelce soaked up the targets. Hill is always a must start in season long, but I would consider fading him in DFS this week.
WR Will Fuller (HOU vs BAL):
Does anyone have a tougher opening schedule than the Texans this year with games against the Chiefs and Ravens? Fuller benefited from the game script in week 1 against the Texans were playing from behind and that could be the case again this week. However, the secondary for the Ravens is much better than the Chiefs and Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters are going to make it difficult on opposing receivers all season. Fuller is going to get his targets this week, but I would expect less than stellar overall numbers.
WR DeVante Parker (MIA vs BUF):
This very well may be a moot point with Parker dealing with a hamstring injury, but it is worth noting. If Parker is cleared and suits up this weekend, he will be lining up against TreDavious White and that is a matchup I do not want any part of. Ryan Fitzpatrick did not have any of his Fitzmagic in week 1 and the entire offense suffered. Parker may have had some flashy numbers against the Bills last season with a combined 12 catches for 190 yards and a touchdown, but a combination of poor quarterback play, a bad hamstring, and a tough matchup has me putting him on the bench this week.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs NE):
The Patriots defense may not be as scary as they were last season, but Stephon Gilmore is still lining up on the outside and locking up with team’s top receivers every week. Tyler Lockett may get saved from the Gilmore treatment by moving into the slot leaving Metcalf to fend for himself on the outside. He may still be a WR3/Flex option against New England this week, but I would not bet on a big performance for Metcalf this week.
TE Rob Gronkowski (TB vs CAR):
There were many of us who hoped that a Brady and Gronkowski reunion in Tampa Bay would be something special, but week 1 looked like anything but. The most telling stat was that Gronk did not have a single red zone target. The Buccaneers have 3 very capable red zone tight ends as well as Mike Evans on the outside. Carolina also looked terrible against the run in week 1 and this all adds up to another down week for Gronkowski. Hopefully there are some better days ahead but it is not going to start this week.