Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam, as I will tweet updates whenever an edit is made to this article or any other piece that I write. As lines move leading up to kickoff this weekend, if value reveals itself elsewhere in the league, it will be analyzed below
Results
- Arizona Cardinals -4.5 (-110), LOSS -1.65 units
- Denver Broncos +3.5 (-117), WIN +1.0 unit
Week 15 profit/loss: -0.65 units
Year-to-date profit/loss: -10.3 units
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Pick: Washington Football Team -1.5 (-110), risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units at FanDuel Sportsbook
In the 2020 season's penultimate game, the Washington Football Team's playoff life is at stake. In this Sunday night clash between division rivals, neither team will be operating at near-full-strength, and the motivation for Washington, coupled with their impressive defensive front, should shine through when the dust settles.
On the Washington Football Team's side of the football, they will start their fourth different quarterback of the season, Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke will be taking over for Dwayne Haskins, who the team parted ways with earlier this week, and the prognosis for this offense could not worsen with a quarterback change. Last week, when Heinicke slotted into the lineup midway through their game against the Carolina Panthers, he completed 63-percent of his passes for 137 yards and the team's lone touchdown of the afternoon. He should not be expected to light up the scoreboard this weekend, but this offense is likely to improve without Haskins at the helm. On the outside, Heinicke will be readily equipped with a plethora of play-makers. Terry McLaurin is one of the league's most dynamic wide receivers, Logan Thomas has emerged as one of the most surprisingly-productive tight ends in the NFL, and J.D. McKissic has carved out a sizable role as the team's security blanket through the air. Defensively, Washington's defense is a remarkable young unit. Along their front seven, Chase Young is the prohibitive favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year on the edge. His pass-rushing production this year has been remarkable, and the development of Jonathan Allen on the interior has been critical to Washington's second-ranked defense in the NFL, according to DVOA allowed. After the Eagles' offense was bottled up last week against the Dallas Cowboys, they stand little chance of pouring it on against a vastly superior Washington defense.
With Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Philadelphia's offense has improved compared to its dismal early-season marks. However, last week's poor showing against the Cowboys' 21st-ranked defense, according to DVOA, appears to have taken the wind out of Philadelphia's sails. The Eagles were eliminated from playoff contention following their humiliating loss at the hands of their biggest rivals, and now they have nothing to play for this week. There is a significant chance that notable producers throughout Philadelphia's roster opt not to play this weekend to heal up and not risk further injury to any lingering ailments. Notable players on this week's injury report include DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert, Jordan Mailata, Derek Barnett and Fletcher Cox; this Eagles lineup is likely to look like a shell of itself in their final outing this season, and expectations should be adjusted accordingly. On the defensive side of the football, their lack of depth was exploited by the Cowboys last weekend, when they picked on Michael Jacquet, a replacement cornerback forced into a starting role. Now, with the stakes as high as ever, the Washington Football Team should do the same.
In this NFC East showdown, the fair line for this game is approximately 3.5-points in favor of Washington. Given the current spread of just 1.5 points, we will have a 1.65-unit wager on the Football Team to cover the spread and net 1.5 units in a victory.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Pick: Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-105), risk 1.05 units to win 1.0 unit
The Green Bay Packers are playing for the number-one seed in the NFC this weekend when they head to Soldier Field to battle their division rival Chicago Bears. This season, the one-seed is more important than ever, as only the one-seed has a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Packers, at 12-3, are ahead of the Saints by one game in the standings. Assuming the 11-4 Saints take care of business against the Carolina Panthers, the onus will be on the Packers to win their game if they want that coveted bye.
This season, the Packers have hit their stride at the perfect time. Aaron Rodgers has emerged as the MVP favorite, and their offense has scored at least 30 points in 5 out of their last 6 games. In short, Green Bay is firing on all cylinders. Matt LaFleur is consistently making sharp decisions on fourth down, maximizing his team's chances to put points on the board in bunches. The offense is performing at a high level, and their defense has held 3 out of their last 4 opponents under 17 points. Although the defense's 14th-place ranking in DVOA allowed this season is not impressive when taken at face value, after accounting for the fact that they were bottom-five in the NFL earlier in the season, their recent improvements have been remarkable. Green Bay is a team primed to make a deep run in the playoffs, and that run starts this weekend by securing a first-round bye and a berth in the Divisional Round.
For the Chicago Bears, recent results are extremely misleading. While the offense appears to have found a groove in recent weeks with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, their production has largely been a result of weak competition. The Bears have faced the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars within the last month, the three worst defenses in the NFL, according to DVOA allowed. Their production against these horrendous defenses has led to an increased discussion surrounding Mitchell Trubisky as the franchise's potential future at quarterback. Do not be a prisoner of the moment, as Trubisky's recent results are not a product of improved play. A deeper dive into his performances reveals that he is largely the same quarterback he always has been; the only difference is that throughout the last month, he has faced off with some of the worst defenses in the entire NFL. Expect Trubisky to struggle this weekend against Green Bay's formidable pass-rush on the edge, led by the Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Rashan Gary. Then, on the outside, Jaire Alexander will likely line up across from Allen Robinson for the majority of the afternoon, which could spell trouble for Chicago's number-one pass-catcher. Flipping over to the defensive side of the football for Chicago, aside from a pair of games against a depleted Houston offense and Jacksonville's disappointing scoring attack, the Bears' recent results have been poor. Across their last five games, they've allowed scoring outbursts of 27, 34, and 41 points. Barring a heroic performance from Khalil Mack and Chicago's pass-rush, Chicago's potentially-depleted secondary, which may be without both Buster Skrine and Jaylon Johnson this week, will be in for a long day trying to contain Davante Adams and the Green Bay aerial attack.
Overall, this Week 17 matchup between two of the most storied franchises in NFL history projects as approximately a six-point game in favor of the Packers. At the current spread of -4.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook, we will have a 1.05-unit wager on the Packers to cover the spread and net 1.0 unit of profit in a victory.