Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-104), LOSS -1.56 units
- New York Giants -6 (-110), LOSS -1.10 units
Week Profit: -2.66 units
Total Profit: -8.81 units
Week 12 Review
The 2020 season has been an endless ride of bad beats for the Beating the Odds betting card, and Week 12 was no exception. In the first game of the afternoon, the New York Giants were handling business against the Cincinnati Bengals for the majority of the game, allowing just 3 points to the Bengals' offense until the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, New York's starting quarterback, Daniel Jones, went down with a hamstring injury around halftime that ended the Giants' chances of putting points on the board. In the end, a fourth-quarter score by Cincinnati covered the spread for the underdogs, starting the afternoon with a loss. Then, in the late slot, the Kansas City Chiefs were firing on all cylinders early in their game against the Buccaneers. Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes II were blistering hot out of the gates, connecting for nearly 200 yards through the air in the first half alone. Much to the dismay of Chiefs' backers, the Kansas City attack changed completely in the fourth quarter given the 27-10 lead they had built up. In the final quarter of the game, Kansas City got conservative while Tampa Bay got ultra-aggressive. A 14-0 fourth quarter from the Bucs ultimately led to a backdoor cover for the underdogs, leaving us with a stressful 0-2 Sunday.
On the bright side, for those of you that got in on Patrick Mahomes II to win MVP this season, last weekend's performance against the Buccaneers had a massive impact on that market. After sitting at just -125 to win the award last weekend, his dominance, paired with lackluster performances elsewhere across the league, moved the line to an astonishing -400 entering Week 13. At this hefty price, do not place the wager if you did not already get in on it, but you are sitting pretty if you did already place the wager.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5, -106) @ HOUSTON TEXANS
PICK: COLTS -3.5 (-106), RISK 1.59 UNITS TO WIN 1.5 UNITS
This AFC South matchup features a pair of teams with opposite outlooks down the stretch of the 2020 season. Indianapolis, sitting at 7-4, is currently 2nd in the division, and the betting markets currently give them over a 60-percent chance of making the playoffs. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Houston sits at 4-7, which is good for third in the division and gives them virtually zero chance of making the playoffs.
On the Colts' side of the football, they are getting healthy at the right time. Last week, in a brutal loss to the Tennessee Titans, the Colts were without several key contributors on both sides of the football. On offense, they were missing one of the best centers in the NFL, Ryan Kelly, their starting running back, Jonathan Taylor, and they lost their left tackle, Anthony Castonzo, to a knee injury mid-game. On defense, the Colts were missing their marquee offseason acquisition along the defensive line, DeForest Buckner. This week, that entire group, less Castonzo, is on track to play, providing a much-needed boost for a potential bounceback game against the inferior Texans. Indianapolis is a well-rounded football team, but the strength of the team lies in its offense, led by head coach and offensive mastermind Frank Reich. Reich pulled the strings behind the scenes for the Philadelphia Eagles' 2017 Super Bowl run, and now he is shining at the helm for Indianapolis. He is one of the league's best play-callers and decision-makers, consistently maximizing his team's chances to win with shrewd fourth-down calls. Overall, this offense is a much-improved group compared to last year; the rushing game is more efficient, thanks to the optimized deployment of players with specific skill-sets. The passing game is more efficient, thanks to an upgrade at quarterback to go along with the addition of receiving threats on the outside and at tight end. In the trenches, the Colts grade as one of the league's best offensive lines. Even without Anthony Castonzo in the mix, FootballGuys' Matt Bitonti still rates them as the third-best line in the NFL. From top to bottom, Indianapolis' attack should thoroughly dominate Houston's disappointing defense, which currently ranks 25th in the NFL in total DVOA allowed.
While the Indianapolis Colts have multiple key producers returning to the fold this week, the Houston Texans have a handful exiting the starting lineup. Both Will Fuller and Bradley Roby tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs this week and will be suspended for the remainder of the 2020 season. These are crushing blows to the Texans, as both players were mainstays of their respective sides of the football while posting career-best numbers this season. Additionally, Houston's receiving corps was further depleted when the team decided to part ways with Kenny Stills and was forced to place veteran pass-catcher Randall Cobb on the injured reserve. These losses on the outside leave Brandin Cooks as the lone first-team receiver left for Deshaun Watson to connect with. While Watson is undeniably one of the league's best quarterbacks, there are limitations to the heroics he can pull off, and it will be a tall task for him to lead this patchwork unit to an above-average performance this week. Throughout Deshaun Watson's career, he has typically played with at least one of DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller on the field at all times. However, in the small sample of plays without either Hopkins or Fuller at his disposal, Watson's production has been pedestrian, at best. Overall, Houston's offense is a dangerous unit when they are at full strength, but this weekend will be an uphill battle for their depleted attack. Expect Houston's offense to struggle to move the ball down the field and put pressure on the Colts' reinforced defense, which will be bolstered by the return of their All-Pro defensive lineman, DeForest Buckner.
This Week 13 AFC South battle projects to be close to a seven-point game in favor of the Indianapolis Colts. As a result, we have a 1.59-unit wager on the Colts to cover the spread of -3.5 (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook and net 1.5-units of profit if they cover.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7, -106)
PICK: STEELERS -7 (-106), RISK 1.06 UNITS TO WIN 1.0 UNIT
While the Washington Football Team is in the thick of a playoff race in the dismal NFC East, their 4-7 record oversells this football team's quality. Washington's four victories come against three teams with a combined record of 8-23-2 this season, good for just a win percentage of just 24.2-percent. While there are a few bright spots on Washington's roster, this team is the epitome of mediocrity this season. Under-center, Alex Smith's feel-good story has captivated fans this season. The fact that he has returned to the NFL and is capable of being a starting quarterback after his gruesome injury is truly remarkable. However, in the context of the NFL, he grades as one of the league's worst starting quarterbacks. On the outside, Terry "F1" McLaurin is one of the best young route-runners in the NFL. McLaurin's incredible ability to separate from defenders without the ball in his hands and also make defenders miss after the catch is awe-inspiring. Unfortunately, with Alex Smith at the helm, his production is capped, and Washington's offense is unable to maximize McLaurin's impact on their attack. Overall, Washington's passing attack lacks viable threats aside from McLaurin, allowing for a simple plan-of-attack from their opposition. Defenses know that while McLaurin is likely to produce, regardless of their gameplan, as long as they limit the ancillary weapons on Washington's offense, they will contain the offense on the whole. This season, non-McLaurin receivers in Washington's offense have only contributed 3 games of 50+ receiving yards. Defensively, the Pittsburgh Steelers are an exceptionally well-coached unit that pressures opposing quarterbacks at a record-setting rate. The Steelers' defense is the number-one unit in the NFL in DVOA allowed, and there is no reason to believe that will change this weekend. Expect the Steel Curtain to hold up against Washington's funneled attack that runs through one singular playmaker.
On the other side of this matchup, the undefeated Steelers have built one of the NFL's most versatile attacks over recent seasons. After a surprisingly-strong 2019 campaign headlined by high-profile injuries to players like Ben Roethlisberger and James Conner, the Steelers are scorching hot in 2020. The reintroduction of Ben Roethlisberger at quarterbacks has raised the floor of the passing attack, and the acquisitions of Eric Ebron and Chase Claypool have raised the ceiling to a new level. Roethlisberger has thrown for multiple scores in every game except one this season despite mediocre offensive line play. The Steelers have built their passing attack around short, quick passes to playmakers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson, who have an uncanny ability to make players miss and gain yards after the catch. Pittsburgh's passing attack is the polar opposite of Washington's, as the Steelers' offense features five players with at least three receiving touchdowns on the year. Opposing defenses are entirely incapable of zeroing-in on locking down one receiver and limiting the offense's production. The team's combination of play-calling creativity and lethal playmakers makes this attack one of the league's most consistent scoring offenses. While Washington's pass-rush is an impressive unit on the whole, with an incredible amount of draft capital invested into the group, Pittsburgh's quick-hitting passing game should serve to neutralize this edge. Without an impactful pass-rush, Washington's defense will be hung out to dry, as their talent at the second and third level pails in comparison to what Pittsburgh will be attacking them with. Expect the Steelers' offense, which is scoring nearly 29 points-per-game, to continue to roll on Monday afternoon when they play host to the Washington Football Team.
In total, this matchup projects as nearly a 10-point game in favor of the Steelers. This line appears to be heavily impacted by recency bias, as the market has reacted to the Steelers' underwhelming performance against the depleted Baltimore Ravens. Given the unusual circumstances surrounding that intradivisional clash, I give little weight to that performance and remain confident in the Steelers' ability to dominate against inferior competition. This leads us to a 1.06-unit wager on the Steelers to cover the 7-point spread and net 1.0-unit of profit if they cover.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about the upcoming weekend of football!