Should You Hurry To Draft Kyler Murray?

Jason Wood's Should You Hurry To Draft Kyler Murray? Jason Wood Published 06/29/2020

Should You Hurry to Draft Kyler Murray?

Kyler Murray is a hot commodity in drafts this year, with good reason. This time last year the fantasy world was divided about Murray's NFL future, as many wondered if a 5-foot-10 system quarterback who had one foot in baseball could possibly justify the first overall pick as the Cardinals new franchise quarterback. Fast forward and we now know Murray belongs in the league. He displayed confidence, consistency, and awareness that belies his age. With the Cardinals set to build off a last year's total remake, and with DeAndre Hopkins slotting into an already promising depth chart, Murray is on a shortlist for elite fantasy quarterbacks who could finish QB3 behind the consensus top two picks: Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. But it'll cost you, as his ADP leaves little room for error.

A meteoric rise gets off to a promising start

Kyler Murray went from undersized system quarterback at Oklahoma destined for a professional baseball career, to the first overall pick and cornerstone of Kliff Kingbury's initial foray as an NFL head coach. We don't need to re-litigate the Cardinals' decision to draft Murray No. 1 other than to say it was a controversial decision met with as many skeptics as supporters. The good news is Murray passed his rookie test with flying colors.

  • 16 games started
  • 349 completions
  • 542 attempts
  • 64.4% completion rate
  • 3,722 passing yards
  • 20 passing touchdowns
  • 12 interceptions
  • 93 rushes
  • 544 rushing yards
  • 4 rushing touchdowns
  • QB9 ranking

QB9 overstates his season

Before forecasting Murray's 2020 outlook, it's important to frame 2019 properly. While he finished as a "top-10 quarterback," it misstates his actual fantasy value because he's one of the few quarterbacks to start and play all 16 games. Fantasy leagues rarely play through Week 17, and ultimately we measure success through a mix of games played and per-game production.

On a per-game basis, Murray ranked 14th.

Rank
Player
Team
Gms
PaYds
PaTDs
INT
RuYds
RuTD
FPTs
PPG
1
Lamar Jackson
BAL
15
3127
36
6
1213
7
457.7
30.51
2
Matthew Stafford
DET
8
2499
19
5
66
-
202.6
25.32
3
DAL
16
4901
30
11
277
3
399.8
24.98
4
HOU
15
3852
26
12
413
7
367.9
24.53
5
Jameis Winston
TB
16
5109
33
30
250
1
388.5
24.28
6
Patrick Mahomes
KC
14
4031
26
5
218
2
334.4
23.88
7
SEA
16
4110
31
5
342
3
376.7
23.54
8
Drew Brees
NO
11
2979
27
4
-4
1
258.6
23.50
9
Jeff Driskel
DET
3
685
4
4
151
1
67.4
22.45
10
Matt Ryan
ATL
15
4466
26
14
147
1
334.0
22.27
11
Ryan Tannehill
TEN
12
2742
22
6
185
4
261.6
21.80
12
NYG
13
3027
24
12
279
2
275.3
21.17
13
PHI
16
4039
27
7
243
1
333.3
20.83
14
ARI
16
3722
20
12
544
4
332.5
20.78
15
BUF
16
3089
20
9
510
9
330.5
20.65
16
Aaron Rodgers
GB
16
4002
26
4
183
1
324.4
20.28
17
Jared Goff
LAR
16
4639
22
16
40
2
320.0
20.00
18
JAX
14
3271
21
6
344
-
276.0
19.71
19
Andy Dalton
CIN
13
3493
16
14
73
4
256.0
19.69
20
Tom Brady
NE
16
4057
24
8
34
3
312.3
19.52
21
Ryan Fitzpatrick
MIA
15
3529
20
13
243
4
291.8
19.45
22
Kirk Cousins
MIN
15
3602
26
6
63
1
290.4
19.36
23
Jimmy Garoppolo
SF
16
3979
27
13
62
1
306.2
19.13
24
Philip Rivers
LAC
16
4615
23
20
29
-
305.7
19.10
25
Derek Carr
OAK
16
4055
21
8
82
2
299.0
18.68

The difference between QB9 and QB14 may not seem like much, but in most leagues, it's the difference between being a fantasy starter or backup. If you're in a 12-team league, you don't want a guy putting up QB14 numbers each week in your lineup unless you're stacked at every other position.

Another way to look at Murray's season is to see where he fell in terms of tiers. He scored 20.8 fantasy points per game last year. Josh Allen (20.7), Aaron Rodgers (20.3), and Jared Goff (20.0) were less than a point behind him, and Ryan Tannehill (21.8), Daniel Jones (21.2), and Carson Wentz (20.8) were a point of less ahead of him.

Rank
Player
Team
Games
PPG
11
Ryan Tannehill
TEN
12
21.80
12
NYG
13
21.17
13
PHI
16
20.83
14
ARI
16
20.78
15
BUF
16
20.65
16
Aaron Rodgers
GB
16
20.28
17
Jared Goff
LAR
16
20.00

Any of those quarterbacks were serviceable QB1s in most weeks, but rarely provided you an edge like Lamar Jackson (30.5), Matthew Stafford (25.3), Dak Prescott (25.0), Deshaun Watson (24.5) did.

It was still a strong season for a rookie

While Murray's QB9 finish was misleading, it's still impressive in context. He was a rookie. He started immediately. He played for a first-time head coach and play-caller. And most importantly, he survived a 16-game season when the biggest knock on him was his 5-foot-10 frame and inherent durability risk.

In the last 20 seasons, 34 rookie quarterbacks played at least 14 games. Murray ranks:

Rank
Player
Year
Age
Games
Yds/Gm
Comp/Gm
Att/Gm
Comp%
YPA
TD%
INT%
RuYd/Gm
PPG
1
Cam Newton
2011
22
16
253
19.4
32.3
60.0%
7.8
4.1%
3.3%
44.1
26.7
2
Robert Griffin
2012
22
15
214
17.3
26.3
65.7%
8.2
5.1%
1.3%
55.5
24.1
3
Andrew Luck
2012
23
16
273
21.2
39.2
54.1%
7.0
3.7%
2.9%
15.9
21.8
4
2016
23
16
229
19.4
28.7
67.8%
8.0
5.0%
0.9%
17.6
21.0
5
Baker Mayfield
2018
23
14
266
22.1
34.7
63.8%
7.7
5.6%
2.9%
9.4
21.0
6
2019
22
16
233
21.8
33.9
64.4%
6.9
3.7%
2.2%
34.0
20.8
7
Jameis Winston
2015
21
16
253
19.5
33.4
58.3%
7.6
4.1%
2.8%
13.3
20.8
8
2012
24
16
195
15.8
24.6
64.1%
7.9
6.6%
2.5%
30.6
20.2
9
2019
23
14
234
20.4
33.6
60.6%
7.0
4.5%
1.3%
24.6
19.7
10
2016
24
16
236
23.7
37.9
62.4%
6.2
2.6%
2.3%
9.4
16.7
11
Vince Young
2006
23
15
147
12.3
23.8
51.5%
6.2
3.4%
3.6%
36.8
16.1
12
Andy Dalton
2011
24
16
212
18.8
32.3
58.1%
6.6
3.9%
2.5%
9.5
16.1
13
DeShone Kizer
2017
21
15
193
17.0
31.7
53.6%
6.1
2.3%
4.6%
27.9
15.9
14
Geno Smith
2013
23
16
190
15.4
27.7
55.8%
6.9
2.7%
4.7%
22.9
15.8
15
Blake Bortles
2014
23
14
208
20.0
33.9
58.9%
6.1
2.3%
3.6%
29.9
15.3
16
Sam Bradford
2010
23
16
220
22.1
36.9
60.0%
6.0
3.1%
2.5%
3.9
15.3
17
Derek Carr
2014
23
16
204
21.8
37.4
58.1%
5.5
3.5%
2.0%
5.4
15.3
18
Matt Ryan
2008
23
16
215
16.6
27.1
61.1%
7.9
3.7%
2.5%
6.5
15.1
19
Ben Roethlisberger
2004
22
14
187
14.0
21.1
66.4%
8.9
5.8%
3.7%
10.3
14.9
20
Chris Weinke
2001
29
15
195
19.5
36.0
54.3%
5.4
2.0%
3.5%
8.5
14.7
21
Brandon Weeden
2012
29
15
226
19.8
34.5
57.4%
6.6
2.7%
3.3%
7.4
14.6
22
Ryan Tannehill
2012
24
16
206
17.6
30.3
58.3%
6.8
2.5%
2.7%
12.3
14.5
23
Joe Flacco
2008
23
16
186
16.1
26.8
60.0%
6.9
3.3%
2.8%
11.3
14.2
24
Byron Leftwich
2003
23
15
188
15.9
27.9
57.2%
6.7
3.3%
3.8%
7.2
13.6
25
Tim Couch
1999
22
15
163
14.9
26.6
55.9%
6.1
3.8%
3.3%
18.5
13.5
26
David Carr
2002
23
16
162
14.6
27.8
52.5%
5.8
2.0%
3.4%
17.6
12.3
27
Mark Sanchez
2009
23
15
163
13.1
24.2
54.0%
6.7
3.3%
5.5%
7.1
11.9
28
Lamar Jackson
2018
21
16
75
6.2
10.6
58.2%
7.1
3.5%
1.8%
43.6
11.3
29
Josh Rosen
2018
21
14
163
15.5
28.1
55.2%
5.8
2.8%
3.6%
9.9
11.3
30
Joey Harrington
2002
24
14
164
15.4
30.6
50.1%
5.4
2.8%
3.7%
0.3
10.5
31
Blaine Gabbert
2011
22
15
148
14.0
27.5
50.8%
5.4
2.9%
2.7%
6.5
10.5
32
Bruce Gradkowski
2006
23
14
119
12.6
23.4
54.0%
5.1
2.7%
2.7%
11.5
9.0
33
Kyle Orton
2005
23
15
125
12.7
24.5
51.6%
5.1
2.4%
3.5%
2.9
8.1
34
Cade McNown
1999
22
15
98
8.5
15.7
54.0%
6.2
3.4%
4.3%
10.7
7.4
  • 9th in attempts per game (33.9)
  • 4th in completions per game (23.7)
  • 4th in completion rate (64.4%)
  • 14th in yards per attempt (6.9)
  • 11th in touchdown rate (3.7%)
  • 6th in interception rate (2.2%)
  • 5th in rushing yards per game (34.0)
  • 6th in fantasy points per game (20.8)

It's a mixed bag at the top. Cam Newton was a perennial fantasy star when healthy, as was Andrew Luck. Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson have been fixtures in the QB1 rankings. Robert Griffin got hurt but looked every bit the elite player until his injury. Mayfield and Winston are more cautionary tales, although if that's the floor, it's hardly the worst outcome.

Two significant reasons to expect improvement

His rookie season, even if you're a skeptic, provides an encouraging foundation to build on. And there are two reasons to expect improvement.

Reason #1 -- Last year was Year 1 for everyone

The Cardinals were a blank canvas last year, undertaking a full rebuild. Murray wasn't the only new face. Kliff Kingsbury was a first-year head coach and play-caller. The entire offense had to learn his new system, which brought Air Raid concepts that most of the veterans had never seen. Sean Kugler brought a new blocking scheme to the offensive line. Vance Joseph rebuilt the defense. Kenyan Drake joined the team mid-year. KeeSean Johnson and Andy Isabella were rookies. And Kenyan Drake was a mid-season addition. It's logical to expect improvement in Year 2 of any system. Familiarity allows faster installs and more intuitive gameplay. Coaches can layer in additional tweaks because the base concepts are rote. Terminology becomes second nature, as does on-field communication and play-to-play chemistry.

Reason #2 -- Adding DeAndre Hopkins

Tom Brady leaving the Patriots for the Buccaneers was unquestionably the biggest story of the offseason. But the Cardinals' acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins was a close second, and may ultimately prove the more valuable move since Hopkins is in his prime while Brady is nearing the end of a Hall of Fame career.

Table: Most Fantasy Points, WR, 2013-2019 Cumulative

Rank
Player
Years
Games
Rec
Yards
Y/R
TDs
FPTs
1
Antonio Brown
2013--2019
93
690
9201
13.33
68
2029.8
2
Julio Jones
2013--2019
97
664
9967
15.01
39
1897.9
3
2013--2019
110
632
8602
13.61
54
1820.6
4
Demaryius Thomas
2013--2019
107
576
7495
13.01
47
1607.5
5
Mike Evans
2014--2019
90
462
7262
15.72
48
1482.2
6
T.Y. Hilton
2013--2019
103
502
7737
15.41
38
1506.3
7
Odell Beckham
2014--2019
75
464
6511
14.03
48
1425.8
8
2013--2019
109
608
6622
10.89
43
1536.2
9
A.J. Green
2013--2019
89
440
6500
14.77
45
1360.2
10
Emmanuel Sanders
2013--2019
104
507
6603
13.02
37
1422.0
11
Alshon Jeffery
2013--2019
91
445
6304
14.17
42
1347.4
12
Golden Tate
2013--2019
106
559
6593
11.79
34
1440.1
13
Keenan Allen
2013--2019
86
524
6405
12.22
34
1384.5
14
Jarvis Landry
2014--2019
96
565
6190
10.96
32
1410.3
15
Brandin Cooks
2014--2019
88
402
5730
14.25
34
1219.1
16
Julian Edelman
2013--2019
83
530
5793
10.93
32
1341.7
17
Doug Baldwin
2013--2018
93
413
5409
13.10
42
1211.5
18
Jordy Nelson
2013--2018
78
396
5311
13.41
44
1190.9
19
Davante Adams
2014--2019
86
431
5194
12.05
44
1214.4
20
DeSean Jackson
2013--2019
83
324
5635
17.39
32
1093.1
21
Robert Woods
2013--2019
100
435
5585
12.84
25
1186.1
22
Michael Thomas
2016--2019
63
470
5512
11.73
32
1212.3
23
Marvin Jones
2013--2019
85
329
4846
14.73
41
1069.7
24
Dez Bryant
2013--2017
70
331
4589
13.86
46
1070.1
25
Randall Cobb
2013--2019
90
420
5024
11.96
35
1155.5

Since coming into the league in 2013, Hopkins ranks:

  • 3rd with 632 receptions
  • 3rd with 8,602 yards
  • 2nd with 54 touchdowns
  • 3rd with 1,821 fantasy points

On a per-game basis over that span he ranks:

  • 8th with 5.7 receptions
  • 7th with 78.2 yards
  • 13th with 0.49 touchdowns
  • 6th with 16.6 fantasy points

Adding Hopkins atop the receiving corps makes Murray's life significantly easier. Hopkins can handle – and dominate – a hefty target share facing off against opposing defenses' top corners. His presence allows emerging third-year Christian Kirk and ageless wonder Larry Fitzgerald to play situational roles against lesser defensive backs. And it means no longer trotting out low-value snaps from the likes of Damiere Byrd, Trent Sherfield, Pharoh Cooper, and Isabella.

Projections

Year
Team/Projector
Games
Comps
Atts
PaYds
PaTDs
INTs
Rush
RuYds
RuTDs
FumL
2019
Arizona Cardinals
16
349
542
3722
20.0
12.0
93
544
4.0
2.0
2020
16
368
544
3982
25.2
13.0
88
484
3.7
4.2
2020
16
360
550
3950
26.0
11.0
90
495
4.0
2.5
2020
16
355
546
4000
27.0
12.0
90
500
3.0
5.0
2020
15
337
527
3592
20.7
14.1
88
479Photos provided by Imagn Images
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