Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 20

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 20 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the two NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• Kansas City Chiefs (vs HOU) - 30.00 points
• San Francisco 49ers (vs MIN) - 26.75 points

Situations that stand out to me this week

• With a slate of just two games, most builds are going to look similar to each other. This leads to contests where the winners are likely decided by one or two lesser fantasy contributors. My advice is to not risk much of your bankroll in these kinds of situations as the edge is minimum at best.
  
  

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo / TE George Kittle (Cost = $,21,900, FP = 34.9, Ratio = 1.59)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $28500, FP = 42.2, Ratio = 1.48)
• RB Raheem Mostert / TD San Francisco 49ers (Cost = $15,300, FP = 22.7, Ratio = 1.48)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / WR A.J. Brown (Cost = $21,100, FP = 31.1, Ratio = 1.47)
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo / WR Emmanuel Sanders (Cost = $20,700, FP = 29.9, Ratio = 1.44)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Sammy Watkins (Cost = $24,000, FP = 33.9, Ratio = 1.41)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / WR Tajae Sharpe (Cost = $17,400, FP = 24.5, Ratio = 1.41)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / TE Jonnu Smith (Cost = $18,000, FP = 25.2, Ratio = 1.40)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $29,900, FP = 41.3, Ratio = 1.38)
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo / WR Deebo Samuel (Cost = $21,300, FP = 29.2, Ratio = 1.37)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / WR Corey Davis (Cost = $18,500, FP = 25.4, Ratio = 1.37)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / TE Anthony Firkser (Cost = $15,900, FP = 21.7, Ratio = 1.36)
• RB Aaron Jones / TD Green Bay Packers (Cost = $19,100, FP = 25.5, Ratio = 1.34)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Demarcus Robinson (Cost = $21,300, FP = 28.1, Ratio = 1.32)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Mecole Hardman (Cost = $23,200, FP = 30.3, Ratio = 1.31)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Ryan Tannehill
• RBs: LeSean McCoy
• WRs: Mecole Hardman, Adam Humphries
• TEs: Anthony Firkser
• Def: Green Bay Packers

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ KC Stack - Projected Points = (142.8)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC - $14,900
• RB Aaron Jones, GB - $13,900
• RB Raheem Mostert, SF - $9,600
• TE George Kittle, SF - $11,000
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC - $13,600
• WR A.J. Brown, TEN - $10,200
• Flex: RB Damien Williams, KC - $13,300
• Flex: WR Corey Davis, TEN - $7,600
• TD San Francisco 49ers - $5,700

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ SF Stack - Projected Points = (142.4)

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF - $10,900
• RB Aaron Jones, GB - $13,900
• RB Raheem Mostert, SF - $9,600
• TE George Kittle, SF - $11,000
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC - $13,600
• WR A.J. Brown, TEN - $10,200
• Flex: WR Emmanuel Sanders, SF - $9,800
• Flex: WR Davante Adams, GB - $15,200
• TD San Francisco 49ers - $5,700